By Dave Wilkin
Early this year I wrote in a Doppler opinion piece that a tipping point for PM Justin Trudeau had arrived. Since then, things have deteriorated for Trudeau, and most Canadians now see that Canada is headed in the wrong direction on many fronts. The impact of this on the Liberal Party is clearly evident, with a recent poll showing them trailing the Conservatives by 12 points, continuing a national declining trend. Even more telling is the cratering support of younger voters that was key to Trudeau’s past election wins—just 16 percent support of voters under 30, compared to the Conservatives at 39 percent. The reasons for the slide are obvious.
First, housing affordability continues to decline as interest rates & costs rise. Despite PM Trudeau’s promises to address it dating back to 2015, things have only gotten worse, as the average home price has almost doubled since then. Trudeau’s recent attempt to distance his government from the issue points to confusion and even desperation. The lack of a national plan to address the impacts of his rapidly increasing immigration/temporary visa levels has made things much worse.
This, along with rising costs of everything, have led to increasing financial anxiety. Since 2017, money remains the top stressor and about half of Canadians are now living paycheque to paycheque. Personal debt has rocketed up, rising almost 60 percent since 2015 (to over 100 percent of GDP), worst in the G7 and highest of all industrialized countries. Canada’s government debt also rose faster than any OECD country, with national government debt now standing at 66 percent of GDP and general government debt at double that. Declining average real income, lagging Canadian productivity/capital investment (2nd lowest in the OECD) makes things even more difficult for Canadians.
All of this has also added to the healthcare crisis, and almost 70 percent of Canadians are now pessimistic about seeing improvements in the near term. It’s also contributing to opioid-related harms increases (doubled) and violent crime rise (up 30 percent) under Trudeau’s watch. Canadians see these as very serious issues and they want action, not words.
On Trudeau’s signature file, climate change, results are underwhelming. His government boasts of $120 billion in environmental spending while his carbon tax steadily rises, now joined by a new Clean Fuel tax. Despite this, Canada’s emissions declined about 7 percent since 2015 and much of which was due to the COVID pandemic’s lingering economic impacts. In British Columbia, where fuel taxes are highest, emissions have actually risen since 2015. Carbon taxes haven’t lowered emissions, but they have fuelled inflation, helping driving costs up across the economic spectrum. This is not sufficiently accounted for under the federal Climate Action Incentive Payments. Additionally, cost increases tend to gobble government energy rebates. This certainly looks to be the case for new windows, heat pumps and EV’s. Banning combustion engine new car sales by 2035? Sorry, not happening. Trudeau doesn’t seem to understand affordable energy is a necessity, not a luxury, and that it still drives economies.
The hard reality is our 1.5 percent share of global emissions is dwarfed by developing countries, the highest being China. If Trudeau was really serious about climate change, he would ramp up export of Canadian natural gas to help displace far dirtier global coal consumption. Ditto for nuclear power technology. But he’s not, and when it comes to China, crickets again. Instead, we get critical words for Canadian energy giant Suncor from Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault while attending the recent China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, which is basically a Chinese government propaganda tool. How pathetic is that!
Despite Trudeau’s high spending ways (not his ‘sunny ways’), Canadian climate-resiliency investment is mostly absent, as this year’s unprecedented wildfires have so clearly demonstrated. Likewise, under-investment in electrical system infrastructure continues, making the doubling or tripling of capacity needed to meet Trudeau’s 2050 net-zero emissions target virtually impossible. That cost could well reach several trillion dollars.
So as the new session of parliament gets underway, watch NDP leader Jagmeet Singh leverage Trudeau’s polling decline by pushing for his top unfulfilled priorities in exchange for propping up the government. With higher interest rates, persistent inflation and now a shrinking economy, his timing is problematic, but he knows Trudeau wants to avoid an election at all costs. Politics first. As pressure on the Liberal party mounts, expect more ‘fear attacks’ from Trudeau targeting the Conservatives, painting them as extreme, scary and lacking plans. It won’t work. Blaming global factors for his own lack of results won’t cut it either.
The winds of change are blowing stronger. I remain cautiously hopeful.
Dave Wilkin is a Professional Engineer, with a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington, but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.
Don’t miss out on Doppler!
Sign up here to receive our email digest with links to our most recent stories.
Local news in your inbox so you don’t miss anything!
Click here to support local news
Nancy Long says
I thought that Trudeau’s government is putting a gas pipeline to the west coast in order to export natural gas to china.
Greg Reuvekamp says
Trudeau’s legacy: legalizing weed, multiple gaffes and embarassments such as blackface, crippling debt, cringeful kowtowing to despots like Xi Jinping, exacerbating divisions in Canadian society for his own gain, and many other disgraces. The Canadian people were able to indulge him when times were good. Now we need a serious, competent person as Prime Minister. Nepotism and superficial physical appearance is no use to us now.
Anthony Clark says
Scapegoating Justin Trudeau is a convenient way to complain but fails to solve anything,
Global interest rates were pushed up by the US Federal Reserve and have levered up shelter costs.. Gas is still very cheap but many people drive wasteful and expensive vehicles.
Canadians as a whole are highly indebted so feel the pain of price changes in food and energy,
Low pay jobs and the gig economy are insufficient for many to live on, as the Biden administration has found out.
Solutions not slogans please!
Hugh Holland says
Good morning, Dave. I hope you are enjoying your new home in Burlington. Yes, the Liberals have not been doing well in recent polls. Canadians are still in an ugly mood after Covid, but I think that will change by election day in 2025 when voters take a serious look at the alternatives. The fact is Canada is not alone. Governments in all countries including the US and China are struggling with the aftermath of Covid 19 and the global effects of Putin’s war on Ukraine. Economically, while maintaining a respectable level of GDP per capita, our net-debt as a % of GDP remains the lowest in the G7, and Canada is one of only 6 countries to maintain a AAA credit rating.
Our economics are as sound as any, but economics are not the be-all and end-all. If we don’t get a handle on emissions, this year’s extreme weather events should show us that nothing else will matter very much to not only our grandchildren, but even to our children. Yes, Canada’s total emissions are only 1.6% of global emissions, but at 19 tonnes per capita, we are second only to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, slightly higher than the US, and twice China’s 8.9 tonnes per capita. The single biggest contributor to our emissions is because a full 1/3rd of Canada’s natural gas consumption goes to melting oil sands bitumen. The Liberals are promoting and supporting much better ways to do that.
Climate Change is a very tough problem, and the Liberals have the only credible plan to help Canada achieve our many opportunities to get to net-zero emissions. But if oil and gas companies cut the world’s supply of oil and gas before we consumers cut our consumption, a global energy shortage will be piled on top of the climate problem. Economists support the refundable carbon tax as the most effective tool to shift demand to carbon-free energy. The Liberals have almost completed the Trans-Mountain oil pipe and the Coastal Gas Link pipe to help our oil and gas companies and the world avoid a crippling energy shortage as we make the inevitable 30-year transition to clean energy. Alberta has the best potential in Canada for solar projects, and the Liberals just gave Alberta $165 million to help with solar projects. But Alberta’s talk show host / Premier put a hold on solar projects because she wants the Feds to get zero credit for helping Alberta. And since the federal Conservatives are totally dependent on Alberta for votes, they are not about to change that dynamic. Canadians can only address the all- important problem of climate change by what we buy and how we vote. Most will see the light before they go to the ballot box.
BJ BOLTAUZER says
Hugh Holland, thank you very much for giving us a balanced and intelligent commentary on Mr. Wilkin’s rather one-sided and openly politically biased article.
Mr. Wilkin lists a number of troubles the country is in, but throws all the reasons for the troubles, whether justifiably so or not, solely at the doorstep of the current federal government, while not offering any concrete realistic solutions, other than a slightly veiled proposal that an extreme right-wing government lead by the current opposition, would result in panacea and well-being.
There would be no well-being for the have-nots, but there may be even higher rewards for the haves. Personal freedoms would be truly eroded. All social services, including free public education and free universal health care, would be privatized. Populism would become the enshrined philosophy of the land. All the efforts related to the fight against global warming and climate change perils would go out of the window because they are not seen by the Haves as being immediately profitable.
Mr. Wilkin does not consider these negative side effects of the change back to the old ways.
Dave Wilkin says
Mr. Boltauzer, your claims about what would happen under a Poilievre government are nonesense. Example, there is no Conservative or Poilievre policy for wide privatization, as you state.
Poilievre is not a radical populist, as you imply, he is certainly not extreme, he’s s a realist and pragmatist, and he’s resonating with Canadian’s, thus why the polls have Conservatives in majority territory.
You also say Poilievre caters to the have’s. You should listen to his speech just delivered at the Conservative convention. The truth is Trudeau caters more to the have’s, as he comes from the elite class, completely disconnected from the average Canadian.
As for why I didn’t talk about solutions, that would take an entire article. I have proposed many recommendations in many of my past articles in the Doppler.
Anna-Lise Kear says
Thank you Mr. Holland and Mr. Boltauzer.
I just emailed a note to MP Scott Aitchison stating that while provincial Conservatives carve up the Greenbelt and continue to do so, federal Conservatives Do Not Even Acknowledge Climate Change.
What is needed is for all parties to work together on solutions for Climate Change. Ideally, all parties would wisely address what is in plain sight – a Climate change working government, patterned as an important national issue. I will not even entertain the federal Conservative party for governance until they have more talented candidates – representing science, the professions, environmentalists. Their talent pool is limited. The Conservative party lopped off a metaphorical arm when progressive Conservatives had to re-form as the Green Party.
Can’t wait for PP’s “elitist” populism to start in campaigning. I have an antidote to that toxic spew, which I will share in due time.
Dave Wilkin says
Re carbon taxes, if I got a buck every time an economist was proven wrong, I’d be rich.
History shows every time cost of energy spikes, a recession follows. Rising carbon taxes push up the cost of energy & everything, hurting the least well-off most. Thus why only 27 countries have a national carbon tax, most being in the EU, where carbon/fuel taxes are highest. Decades later, 70% of their primary energy remains fossil fuels based, of which roughly 85% is imported.
The only sustainable way to cut emissions without wrecking our economy is to lower the cost of cleaner energy through new innovative technologies (e.g. nuclear, carbon capture) or rational hydro projects, of which few remain. It will take very large infrastructure/capital investment and decades. Developing countries have a much tougher challenge, thus the urgency for resiliency investments.
Re nat gas, Trudeau told Germany recently when they came asking, to look elsewhere, & that he doubts there’s a ‘business case’ for LNG. The USA does though, and it’s now the worlds leading LNG supplier. Go figure..