By Robert Hurst
If you’re a student of history, or even if you’re not, you might consider the event below, because it’s going to unfold right in front of your eyes.
In the next four weeks we are going to witness the downfall of Donald J. Trump. It’s going to be a train wreck. Who can turn away from that?
Prognosticators are hesitant to predict the outcome of the U.S. election, said writer Tim Alberta in Politico last week, because Trump “has defied gravity too many times, escaped too many near-death political experiences.”
But rarely in recent memory have the signs of an electoral tsunami been so clear. When I was a reporter covering the White House during the Reagan and Bush presidencies, our focus was always on the undecided voter. It was often that large block that was the key to victory.
But not this time. Undecideds are near zero.
If one takes a deep dive into state-by-state trends, the messages and signals in the data should turn Republican blood stone cold. Women voters are abandoning Trump in droves. Republican strategists call it a “nightmare collapse”, the likes of which they have never seen before. Seniors, a Republican stronghold, are also turning on Trump. Stunningly, Trump is behind in hard-core Trump states like Arizona and Texas. Republican Senator Ted Cruz, from Texas, said on Saturday, we are facing “a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”
When did this growing disenchantment with Trump begin?
Voters have been abandoning Trump since day one. The accidental president morphed into a renegade. His anger and antics have burned the very people who voted for him. Insults to military families. Blacks and Charlottesville. Seniors and COVID. Soccer moms and school closures. The jobless. Puerto Ricans and paper towels. Mexicans and rapists. Gen Xers. The lies. And the lying.
The first clear indication that Trump was in serious trouble were the U.S. midterm elections. Republicans were trounced. For a while Trump was fun and entertaining. But the buffoonery has become boring. And toxic. Many are laughing at Trump. In politics, it’s the kiss of death when voters start laughing at you.
Thirty years ago, Trump had a dramatic downfall.
In 1991 he claimed to be the ‘Real Estate King’ of New York. He built a billion-dollar casino in Atlantic City. He wanted to own an NFL team. He bought the fabled Plaza Hotel on a whim. He bought the Eastern Airlines Shuttle, a no frills hop-on service.
I remember flying the Trump Shuttle between Washington and New York. He painted his planes white and plastered his name on the side. He made it a luxury airline. The seats were leather in light brown. The belt buckles were chrome. Gold fixtures in the lavatory. I remember listening to a musician play a grand piano at the LaGuardia boarding gate.
But it was a Potemkin airline. It flew for less than two years. The airline and the rest of Trump’s enterprises collapsed. It was all a castle built on sand, washed away when the monthly payments came due. His companies filed for bankruptcy six times. He was a con man, stiffing banks, fleecing investors, and swindling pension funds. He shafted carpenters and plumbers.
And he cheated on his wife, Ivana, who walked out.
When Trump declared his candidacy, the New York Daily News put a picture of Trump on its front page with the headline: “Clown Runs For President”. But the gullible American voters viewed him as a television star and ignored the history lesson from 1991.
And so the snake oil salesman continued his craft.
Now, in his final campaign, Trump envisions himself as the Grand Master of political gamesmanship. But he’s really playing Crazy 8s. Some of Trump’s schemes these days are straight-out embarrassing and sad.
He sent his sons to campaign in Florida last week. Don Jr.’s rally was in the parking lot of the Stepp Tow Truck company in Tampa. Eric’s rally was in the parking lot of Semco Materials, a metal fabricator, located in an industrial park in Jacksonville. Are we going to see a Trump rally in the parking lot at the My Pillow factory in Chaska, Minnesota?
In these final weeks, Trump is becoming more like a character from Looney Tunes. Last week he called Kamala Harris a monster and a communist. He demanded the arrest of Barrack Obama. In the past few days he announced he has discovered a cure for COVID-19. “Praise Be to God”—we’re all saved. Even Kim Jong Un would not be so vacuous.
The point is, the evidence is everywhere that most Americans have abandoned Donald J. Trump.
Like Humpty Dumpty, his fall will be fast and hard and permanent because All the Kings Horses and All the Kings Men have mostly deserted him.
Robert Hurst was CTV’s Washington Correspondent from 1988-1992
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Ray Vowels says
Wow It’s kind of plain to see this guy is sure not a Trump van. But he is sure going to feel awful stupid if Trump wins again in Nov. I know almost nothing about American politics but from what I see and here from family and friends on Facebook Trump has a very good chance of coming out the winner. Time and the American voters will tell the story.
Brenda Begg says
Trump was never “…fun…” But, I agree; Trump was, and continues to be toxic. Let’s hope that most Americans have abandoned The Donald.
Paul Whillans says
Perhaps Trump is a cautionary tale for Canada. (I can see your eyes rolling).
David Frum, well known hard right conservative (and former Canadian; son of Barbara Frum) was the head speech writer for George W. Bush and continues to be a Republican illuminati. His most recent book “Trumpocalypse” takes a deep look into how someone like Trump gets elected.
In his book, he makes the case that after years of uncaring and elitist US leadership, there now is roughly 33% of US ctizens who simply don’t believe in the kind of democracy that has been practiced for decades. And they are Trump’s “base” and are happy to see someone just blow it all up.
Clearly, to date, Canada hasn’t had a full blown Trump. But I sense a drifting away from core democratic values by a growing number of regular citizens (populists on both the left and right).
So I am over the outrage of Trump (well almost). But I am more concerned that more needs to be done in Canada to draw the disenfranchised into the conversation. This probably includes the social conservatives and Wexit groups, as well as the chronic generations of poverty and Black Lives Matters groups.
As always not everyone can have their way. But they all need to feel listened to and part of the conversation…….And it needs to happen before we have our “Trump” moment
Anna-Lise Kear says
Thank you Robert Hurst. I sincerely hope you are correct in your predictions. Unfortunately, there will continue to be serious demanding problems, when he leaves office, for the new administration. They will be cleaning up the White house sludge for a decade. Recently, what I have found alarming is the attempts by the GOP at voter suppression. Lest we forget robocalls (e.g. Guelph) under Stephen Harper’s watch – though uncovered and prosecuted.
For the American people, I hope they finally get an improved health care system, better supported public education, and a real closure of the gap between rich and poor. COVID 19 continues to shine a bright light on disparity for some of our citizens, fatal health outcomes, housing, employment issues, long term care of our elderly. We cannot be complacent and self-satisfied with our response compared with the US. We need to have our own reckoning as a society, and make wise decisions that will benefit the most people/the common good. Thank you for listening.
Ray Vowels says
I’m not sure he was or is that toxic as far as the U.S. is concerned. Until this virus hit the U’S, economy was doing the best it has in years unemployment was very low stock market was in great shape and everyone in the world it seems hated the man. When he was elected he said he would make America great again and even being blocked and held up as much as the Dem’s could he still managed to do a lot for the country. If not for covid-19 the U.S. would still be doing great. Just my opinion.
Anna-Lise Kear says
Mr. Vowels; Americans are holding on by the skin of their teeth to the Affordable Care Act – the first time some Americans have ever had health insurance coverage. There has been NO replacement to ACA, as promised by the Republicans during their tenure. The tax break, as typical, benefitted the rich, had very limited and short-lived benefits for anyone else with stock options. Most Americans do not have stock options.
DT sociopathic personality disorder is very difficult to work with, relate to, unless one prefers an unpredictable, unstable autocratic personality, with a petulant streak. If interested, check out malignant narcissism and “gaslighting”, this may help you understand the environment he creates around himself. He has a deep psychological need that must be filled constantly, a mental health disorder, for which he has not sought help. Are you able to recognize his mental health problem?
What the American people have opted for in DT is a reality show, smoke and mirrors, circus strong-man leadership and he has conned them well. Much of the Republican party have enabled him in his behaviour. The Lincoln Project is a group of anti-Trump Republicans trying to reclaim their party from the Trump cult. If you are interested, check out Fromm’s book mentioned in the above article, written by a Conservative. Just a thought.
John Robinson says
It will take a few decades for our neighbour to the south recover from the harm Trump has done to our allies and the world. And to all the families that lost loved ones to this poorly managed pandemic. Yes Canada will keep our borders closed for as long as it takes for the USA to lower the spread of Covid-19.
God save the USA from another 4 years of this idiot.
Hugh Holland says
Great summary Rob.
Ray Vowels, don’t be fooled by Trump’s crowing about the stock market. The stock market is not the economy that most people experience. Yes, the stock market did well for a while, but 85% of the stock market gains went to the top 10%. Yes, unemployment was down, but too many were employed in low-wage jobs with no benefits and no health care. Trump’s legendary bullying and insults of all trading partners failed to bring back any good middle-income manufacturing jobs. And his tax cuts for the wealthy and total failure in the management of Covid-19 have added and will still add trillions to US debt. In fact I can’t think of a single good thing he did, but there has been a list of bad things that will sell books for years to come.
Paul Whillans says
Ray Vowels….It doesn’t take much to show that “your opinion” of Mr Trump’s efforts on the economy are just wrong. Obama from 2014 to 2016 added an average of 225,000 jobs per month; Trump from 2017 through 2019 (a comparable 3 year period) added an average of 182,000 jobs per month. (It should be obvious even if Trump added only 10 new jobs a month eventually it would hit a record low unemployment). From 2014 through 2016 Obama grew the economy 2.97% per year; Trump grew the economy from 2017 through 2019 by 2.5% per year (no statistical difference). And while it is true the stock market soared during Trump’s term, it took the US government adding 1.5 trillion dollars in debt to fund the tax cut to business.
Save for the stock market (and keep in mind that 84% of the stock market is owned by the richest 10% of American families), Trump simply was riding the coattails of a pre-existing economy. No, Trump did nothing exceptional on the economic front….except to lie about it
Oh, and about the 20 million jobs lost because he failed to act on the pandemic
Joe Doyle says
“The point is, the evidence is everywhere that most Americans have abandoned Donald J. Trump. Like Humpty Dumpty, his fall will be fast and hard and permanent because All the Kings Horses and All the Kings Men have mostly deserted him.”
Have they, really???
Actually, as you outline, the absurdity of America’s Trump situation is the simple fact that a buffoon holds the country’s highest office (and all related powers) while inhabiting a world devoid of reality. He just makes stuff up to suit himself, has no shame in doing so and constantly adjusts his evident falsehoods to reflect his most immediate concerns and narcissistic ambitions. Grandstanding and deceit are the principal features of his unprincipled and pathetically limited personal style. Confusion and chaos are his proud hallmark.
As you say, the snake oil salesman is playing Crazy 8’s… embarrassing and sad to witness.
I certainly hope you’re correct in reporting the evaporation of Trump’s support and point to his imminent defeat at the polls Rob, but I’m much less sanguine about prospects for his sudden, swift and permanent exit.
Why? While this phoney Emperor hasn’t a clue in any conventional sense, he has surrounded himself with a great many sycophants and enablers in Cabinet, throughout his Administration, in Congress and beyond. All the King’s Men standing by to aid and abet this genuine fake leader. Trump, as many attest, is the Republican Party at this point, and there are still plenty of nominal RINOs even as the middle ground of undecided voters has shrunken.
Competence, like truth itself, is banished in Trump’s Orwellian realm. “You’re fired!” echoes throughout the Oval Office and the Twitter-verse.
Politics in the classic historical and Aristotelian sense morphs into autocracy. Basic and fundamental electoral processes such as voting rights and participation, as with elemental realities such as pandemic disease, are discredited and disparaged. Ads, propaganda and disinformation replace informed civic activity, normal debate and even civil discourse.
In Trump’s one-dimensional world, there are only winners and losers…and certainly no graceful exits. In Trump’s upside-down fantasy, elections are not an expression of the people’s will…citizen’s choice. Instead they amount to a crude and cruel equivalent of a bogus coin toss: “heads I win, tails you lose”. And we know that Trump, never a good sport or gracious gentleman, loathes losers and losing more than truth.
Unlike the fairy tales of simpler times where Humpty had his great fall from the wall and shattered forever, Trump is no Dumpty. In 2016 he rode to power on the false promise to build a great wall which, like most of his pledges, never materialized. Now in 2020, bent but unbroken, and still surrounded by his fervent enablers, it seems unlikely he will be undone and gone in four short weeks… even as he packs the courts.
A train wreck for sure, but even if there is an electoral tsunami this fall, it may be well into winter and we’ll beyond before the history books close on Trump’s catastrophic presidency. (Even “lame ducks” can be dangerous when they occupy the White House, control the Presidential power of pardon, and are Commander-in-Chief.)
Time enough to worry that America itself (and perhaps even its close friends and neighbours) could shatter beyond recovery in the collapse of Humpty Trump. Time will tell of course, but the history lesson continues.
Ron Baker says
Regarding the Stock Market surge, Robert Reich in the latest Munk Dialogue states emphatically that the stock market is NOT the economy. The level of unemployment and income redistribution are better targets for a booming economic picture. The current clown does not have any clue as to a thriving economy….he has never contributed.
Rob Millman says
You’re very wise, Mr. Doyle: When Trump isn’t out stumping, he continues to roam the White House corridors mask-less. This, although 34 employees in the White House have contracted Covid; and Trump may be simply asymptomatic. Several in the Pentagon have also succumbed to the pandemic, and Trump still controls the nuclear codes. Indeed, what might he do as a “lame duck” president?
And he’s still touting this miracle cure; even though he is pro-life. and the cure necessitates the use of aborted fetuses.
Will he even leave when he loses? Or if he wins on voting day, and loses on the mail-in ballots (which he tried to suppress by moth-balling mail-sorting machines)?
He even has the power to give the electoral votes of an entire state to ONE individual. And when all else fails, he’ll appeal to the Supreme Court (which he has packed to a 6-3 conservative majority).
Unfortunately, it’s not over until the fat lady sings.
Diane Norman says
I really loved the article by Robert Hurst and all positive comments made above. Lets hope Humpty Dumpty really does “have a great fall” from the wall. The world will be a better place.
Karen Wehrstein says
I follow American politics very closely, and I think Robert Hurst is right that American voters will say “You’re fired” to Donald Trump in a landslide. The objective signs are many, ranging from polls to amounts of money donated (the Democrats are utterly outstripping the Republicans) to reported early-voting turnouts (people are already waiting in lines for hours to vote.) Leaked reports show Republicans in panic. Trump is making desperation moves, even refusing to commit himself to leaving office peacefully if he is defeated.
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There’s no question he’ll be out by a humiliating defeat.
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If……. the election isn’t stolen.
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That’s what I am worried about. His government and other Republicans in power have tried to sabotage the election by every tactic from destroying US Postal System mail-sorting machines (across the nation) to limiting drop boxes to 1 per county whether it has hundreds or millions of residents (Texas) to putting out fake drop boxes and refusing to take them down when ordered to by a judge (California) to purging voters from the rolls for no good reason (Republican-ruled states) to good ol’ gerrymandering (across the nation and started before Trump’s time). Oh and having armed men standing around drop boxes demanding people’s ID (various states).
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Law enforcement agencies across the USA are preparing for Nov. 3 because violence is *expected*. It is being generated from one side only: a president and party who know that they’ll lose an honest election. Those who know they’ll win such an election feel no need for tin-pot dictator tactics.
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The Democratic Party plan is to get out so many voters that no cheating can overcome the majority. US presidential electoral turnouts are usually shamefully thin — 50% of eligible voters is typical. But today one Texas county reported that 97% are now registered to vote. (In the USA you have to register to vote every election.)
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Still, we cannot know whether Trump can succeed in maintaining power illegitimately. This is terra incognito in American history. I just have my fingers very tightly crossed.
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Lots of good comments here but, Joe Doyle, yours stands out above the crowd for excellence. Thank you.
Joe Doyle says
Who knows what is going to happen as the world’s oldest, most arcane and second largest “democracy” visits its official ballot boxes and polling stations in coming days?
Opinion polls notwithstanding, I would note that accurately predicting the future has always been a risky task and never more than now. But, like so many others around our planet, I hope Rob Hurst is “bang on” and that Trump will soon be gone and the healing begins. We’ll see soon enough how all this unfolds. As Trump himself has declared: “Stand back, and stand by!”
Kierkegaard observed: “Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards.” We’ll soon see what happens and then perhaps understand and maybe even accept America’s electoral outcome, unless it’s really just a coin toss…then of course all bets are off.
Superstition is no strategy, but if you can’t actually vote it’s never too early to cross your fingers!
Susan Godfrey says
Mr. Doyle your italics around democracy (American style democracy) are bang on. I believe Americans have to take responsibility for creating a “Donald Trump” (and his father Fred before him) in the first place. A word does not constitute or describe the actual truth of it; the word “democracy”, in the US, really means individualism…not conducive to good social programs or judgement in my opinion. This wrong thinking can be righted by unbiased education and free thought. And getting out to vote after that.
Britt Stevens says
Fun to poke fun at the Donald for sure but… can anyone lay out just one reason to vote for Biden or Harris other than “he isn’t Trump”? just one… anyone?
Ray Vowels says
I’m getting a lot of flack for my comments on Donald Trump . What I based my comment on is the American people that I talk to both friends and relations. From what I am hearing and seeing a lot of Canadians may be in for a big disappointment in Nov. One thing for sure is who wins will be up to the American public not the Canadian Public. God knows we have our own political problems to deal with.