In his weekly briefing on Dec. 8, Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health for Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit (SMDHU) issued a warning to residents: if the upward trend in cases continues the region is headed for the red/control zone in the province’s COVID-19 response framework. Currently, Simcoe Muskoka is in the orange/restrict zone.
“There is a significant likelihood [of moving into red zone within next few weeks] given the trajectory,” he said. “If we don’t flatten the curve and start to come down, we are at high risk of it.”
He acknowledged that case counts in Muskoka have been significantly lower than in Simcoe County. “I can certainly sympathize with businesses and communities and how they would be impacted [by a move into the red zone]… I have positioned that concern to the Province and noted that if we end up with further restrictions, Muskoka would be impacted even though they don’t have the same transmission pattern.” He added that the Province’s approach to date has been to work with health units as a whole, rather than dividing them based on transmission rates. “We will see if they change their position on that.”
Dr. Gardner also noted that transmission and outbreaks have been increasing within northern Simcoe, “so there’s potential for that to continue up to Muskoka… The counter-consideration would be that there would be added protection for Muskoka against such transmission from the south.”
For the week beginning November 29, the rate of new COVID-19 infections in Simcoe Muskoka—the bulk of them in Simcoe County—was 38 per cent higher than the previous week.
The majority of cases reside in Barrie, Bradford West Gwillimbury, New Tecumseth, Essa, and Innisfil. But Orillia, Midland, Oro-Medonte (largely due to a congregate setting outbreak), and Ramara have already had more cases reported in December than all of November, according to the health unit.
Cases have been slowly rising in Muskoka, as well. Half of Gravenhurst’s 20 cases, two-thirds of Bracebridge’s 15 cases, and just over half of Huntsville’s 31 cases to date have occurred in the past 11 weeks.
SMDHU map of COVID 19 cases as of Dec. 8, 2020 (simcoemuskokahealth.org)
Dr. Gardner said that he has heard concern from councils, municipalities and chambers of commerce in Muskoka about the region being treated the same as Simcoe County.
Huntsville Mayor Karin Terziano later told Doppler that she has had discussions with “a couple of other Muskoka mayors who have expressed interest in the separation. As of now this discussion has not been before our council, but I am interested in finding out the pros and cons for separating or not and so support the question to our health unit and medical officer.”
The Province considers three indicators when determining which zone to place a health unit within: epidemiology, hospital and intensive care unit capacity, and the ability of public health to adequately follow up with cases and contacts within a 24-hour period.
If Muskoka were to be separated from Simcoe County, among the criteria it would have to meet in order to be downgraded from an orange/restrict zone include:
- A weekly incidence rate of less than 10 to 24.9 cases per 100,000 population. (For the week of November 29, Muskoka had five cases or the equivalent of about eight per 100,000 population.)
- A percent positivity rate of less than 1.2 per cent. (Muskoka’s current percent positivity rate is 0.1 per cent.)
- Adequate hospital and ICU capacity. (According to the health unit, as of November 22, the occupancy rate at Muskoka’s hospitals was 88.1 per cent for acute beds and 77.8 per cent for ICU beds.)
- Adequate case and contact follow-up within 24 hours. (The SMDHU goal is to reach more than 90 per cent of newly reported confirmed COVID-19 cases and high risk contacts within one day. For the week prior to Dec. 8, it reached 78.9 per cent of cases and 77.5 per cent of high risk contacts within 24 hours.)
- Outbreaks and the level of community transmission of the virus are also considered.
If Simcoe Muskoka is moved to a red/control zone, increased restrictions would include:
- All organized public events and social gatherings limited to five people indoors and 25 people outdoors.
- Religious services rites or ceremonies, including wedding services and funeral services, where physical distancing can be maintained limited to 30 per cent capacity of the room indoors or 100 people outdoors (applies in any venue other than a private dwelling).
- Sports and recreation facilities, where physical distancing can be maintained, limited to 10 people in indoor areas with weights and exercise machines, 10 people in all indoor classes, 25 people in outdoor classes, and no spectators are permitted, but each person under 18 may be accompanied by one parent or guardian.
- Team sports must not be practised or played except for training (no games or scrimmage).
- See the full list of restrictions here.
With the holiday season fast-approaching, Dr. Gardner urged people to stick to their own households.
“We need to put on hold the usual kind of gatherings that we do,” he said. “We are seeing a rise, going into the holiday season, of COVID-19. It’s not at all under control. We know from our experience at Thanksgiving that gatherings of this nature lead to more transmission, and certainly the very last thing you would want is for a gathering in your household to result in transmission, making family members or loved ones, friends and others seriously ill or causing them to transmit to others. We’ve all got to be part of the solution. I’m really asking for people to exercise restraint and connect with people remotely instead.”
He also reminded residents that travel between zones is not recommended, except for essential purposes such as work or medical appointments.
Update: This post was updated on Dec. 9, 2020 to include a map of cases within Simcoe Muskoka
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Reply to Karen Wehrstein If the people from the city saved a few businesses over the summer stop and think if we get shut down into a red zone just because the city people wont listen to authorities and stay home how many businesses are going to go under just because the local population with not be able to support them this winter. Just something to think about no matter what it’s going to be a tough winter for most business owners. But being shut down will be the end for a lot of them it’s sad.
I agree muskoka shouldn’t be under Simcoe. I live in gravenhurst and the numbers are low. But we get trapped into Simcoe and this is stupid of us going into Red Zone. The government should just close the province down. I work in the community and I’m tired of ppl coming up here to there cottage just because they have property up here. Summer is over stay in your primary home. Your cottage is a cottage not your home.
Linda.
Instead of sitting in their offices and looking at statistics, we need Health Unit officials to step up and make LOGICAL changes. They have the authority. Stop waiting and just hoping for the best!
Except for reporting new outbreaks, the same as the media does, the local health unit
is useless. Not informing the public correctly, they become part of the problem, not the solution.
Regarding community spread… It would seem that it would be completely logical to keep Muskoka out of a red zone scenario. However. The Red Zone community in the Toronto area does not seem to understand that Red Zone means you stay put, not travel to Barrie to continue your holiday shopping. We have stores here that are jam-packed with Shoppers from south of here. And now we have a higher positivity rate in Barrie. So it would follow that people in Red Zones who don’t follow the guidelines will just drive even further North, to Muskoka.
Another contributor to the spread: Gathering young people from high schools all around the area to get together to play hockey! Then all those students go back to their respective schools and next we have outbreaks in five different high schools. And rather than shutting that down we want to close small businesses? Be logical people!
And finally somebody needs to be monitoring the activities of the church on Sunday. I hear first-hand accounts of people going to church unmasked. They think this virus is a hoax, or blown out of proportion. People who think this is nothing more than the flu. Does any Municipal bylaw officer patrol on Sunday? If not, they should be. We need to shut this down. Closing stores in certain areas is NOT working during this second wave.
Instead of sitting in their offices and looking at statistics, we need Health Unit officials to step up and make LOGICAL changes. They have the authority. Stop waiting and just hoping for the best!
I agree with the mayors. It makes no sense that Muskoka, which is so overwhelmingly rural, is having restrictions imposed on it in based on case counts in urban areas to the south. We have to flatten the curve more when we’ve had all of 107 cases total and one death in Muskoka despite the district being packed with Torontonians for most of the summer and fall?
.
We have all stayed far enough apart because our low population density makes it easy to do here, even with the tourists (who — take note, Ray Vowels — saved umpteen Muskoka businesses by fleeing the city). That should be taken into account.
Didn’t know, here it is: “positivity rate — the percentage of positive cases among those who are tested.”
There are so many holes, inconsistencies and just plain non-sensical statements coming from Ford Nation.
To nitpick a couple: “A weekly incidence rate of less than 10 to 24.9 cases per 100,000”. So, ten?
“Team sports must not be practised or played except for training (no games or scrimmage)”. Arbitrary. The thing that matters, in any situation, is what is the amount of close contact that could transmit the virus?
“30 per cent capacity of the room indoors or 100 people outdoors (applies in any venue other than a private dwelling)”. Enough quoted.
What is the goal? How will we know when it’s better? Over? All we hear is threats. So tiring and unimpressive.
Doing my part here in The Syd.
Lets just stop and think with our heads for a few minutes. Figure out how many people live in Barrie or surrounding area that go to Toronto every day to work That should give you an idea of why the case numbers are going up so fast in Simcoe but staying low in muskoka . If they would somehow stop people from coming north Muskoka would be a lot better off. It’s beyond me why we are being linked to Simcoe in the first place but then we are dealing with govt and they do strange things.