The Ministry of Natural Resources – Bracebridge, Minden, Parry Sound District – is advising
area residents that a Water Safety Bulletin is in effect in the District until Monday, January 06, 2025.
This message will impact residents within the MNR Bracebridge, Minden, Parry Sound
District for portions of the District of Parry Sound, District of Muskoka, and City of Kawartha
Lakes within the Black, Burnt, Gull, Severn, French, Magnetawan and Muskoka River
Watersheds.
Residents and those visiting the area are advised to be aware of current watershed
conditions. Higher than normal water levels and flow conditions exist throughout the area
and residents are reminded to keep a close watch on weather conditions, regularly check
for updated messages, and exercise caution near fast-moving rivers and streams.
The Parry Sound-Muskoka area received approximately 25 to 30mm of rain on top of snow
producing significant runoff into local rivers and lakes. Lake water levels in certain areas
have increased above the normal operating zone. In addition, due to unseasonably warm weather and rapidly changing conditions, MNR advises residents to exercise extreme caution concerning ice conditions. No ice is safe ice.
Residents and visitors should exercise caution while around waterbodies and maintain
close supervision of children and pets.
Residents that have been affected by high water and flow conditions in the past should
continue take necessary action to protect/secure any vulnerable property in proximity to
rivers and lakes and closely monitor developing conditions and regularly check for updated
messages.
Lower-lying portions of known flood-prone areas may be impacted to various degrees.
Residents who have been affected by high water and flow conditions in the past should continue to take necessary action to protect/secure any vulnerable property in proximity to rivers and lakes and closely monitor developing conditions, and regularly check for updated messages.
The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
Technical information
Description of Weather System
A Texas-Low type low-pressure system is moving through the area Sunday into Monday.
Due to the passage of this system an unstable, warm, and moist weather pattern is forecast for over the next few days.
Over the weekend, some areas within the District received 25-30mm of rainfall combined with warm above-freezing temperatures.
The forecast for Monday and beyond is likely to see gradual tapering off of precipitation as the system exits the province via the Ontario-Quebec corridor. The weather forecast is calling for daytime highs of -10°C to 2°C, and overnight lows are forecasted between -17°C and 0°C for the next 7 days. Over the next 3 days (Monday to Wednesday), weather forecasts indicate that the District could receive an additional 15mm of precipitation.
Daytime temperatures are likely to remain above freezing until Wednesday, when temperatures are expected to begin to drop.
Description of current conditions
No flooding is anticipated at this time.
Most managed lake water levels are between the target operating level and the upper limit of the normal operating zone. However, some lakes that received heavy rainfall are experiencing elevated water levels. Dam operations are being completed to move water through the watersheds.
As the additional water moves through the watershed, some rivers may see increased flows and higher water levels. It is anticipated that lake water levels and river flows will begin to decrease over the next week as the temperatures cool.
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