Ministry urged to update Muskoka’s water management plan as flooding takes its toll

Concerns about flooding, damage to property and the impact of climate change on Muskoka’s watershed came to a head at District Council on April 18. District passed a motion urging the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry to update its 2006 Muskoka River Water Management Plan (MRWMP).

The plan, according to correspondence received by the Township of Muskoka Lakes, was scheduled to be reviewed and updated this year, but the Province has indicated it plans to extend the plan for another five years.

“The District of Muskoka requests the Province to immediately initiate a full review of the MRWMP to be completed by 2021 so that it may accurately address Ontario’s changing climate and the associated impacts on municipal and personal property,” states the resolution.

Lake of Bays Mayor Bob Young supported it.

“There were some devastating pictures that were put on the screen,” said Young, who noted that while Lake of Bays and Huntsville area were not hit as hard as in 2013, places like Muskoka Lakes were hit the hardest this spring. “Boat houses just crumbled and one of them, I believe, crumbled on the lovely old Ditchburn, which makes you just weep.”

Admittedly, the MNRF is not able to prevent flooding, has limited tools to control water levels, and serves primarily as an advisory agency when flooding is imminent. Where it has the ability to make an impact is by drawing down water levels, argued Young.

The big message that we were trying to get across is Mother Nature has changed, climate patterns have changed, but the model they’re using to manage the waterways is… old.
Lake of Bays Mayor Bob Young

“I’m not going to throw stones when I don’t know, but… maybe the plan should be revised so that we start pulling a little earlier and if we over-pull, maybe that’s not such a bad thing anymore,” he said, referring to drawing down on water levels sooner, where possible.

“Forty years ago there weren’t nearly the seasonal lakeshore residents that there are now so again it points to the fact that we need a new plan and that’s no mean undertaking. I would imagine it’s a massive piece of work.”

Huntsville Mayor Scott Aitchison echoed those concerns. “There’s no question that the weather events that we’re having are a lot different now than the analysis that the existing plan is predicated on… I think it’s safe to say that we’ve all seen changes in the type of rain events and the type of winters and the type of melts we have over the last 15 years, so it requires some analysis and it’s good to get started on it now.”

In a written statement to Doppler, the Ministry stated that it is currently reviewing the Lakes and Rivers Improvement Act, policy that relates to all water management plans across the province. It stated that while the review is underway it will not be proceeding with amendment requests “except in limited circumstances, for example where necessary to ensure operational compliance and to ensure plans remain in effect.”

It added that extending the current Muskoka River Water Management Plan ensures it remains in effect while “proposed changes to the requirements related to water management planning under Lakes and Rivers Improvement Act are considered.”

Climate change is not unique to the Muskoka area, noted the Ministry. “It is possible that the frequency or severity of droughts and/or floods may increase over time due to climate change. The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change has the responsibility for implementing Ontario’s Climate Change Strategy, which includes initiatives to fight climate change, as well as initiatives for adapting and thriving in a changing climate,” reads the statement forwarded by Mara Kerry, Partnership Specialist for the MNRF’s Parry Sound District.

According to the Ministry, its dams were not built to be flood control structures and while they may provide limited relief, they do not have the capacity to store or hold back flood waters.

The water management plan identifies a normal operating range within which water levels will fluctuate in response to typical changes in rainfall, snow melt and associated runoff. To the extent possible, MNRF operates dams to maintain water levels within ranges identified in the Muskoka River Water Management Plan. The plan recognizes that water levels will go outside of this range during extreme events like flood or drought.
MNRF written statement

According to the Ministry, despite its best efforts to forecast, manage and prepare for floods, it cannot control extreme weather and watershed conditions.

“From March 24th to April 7th the Muskoka River watershed received approximately 171.5 mm of freezing rain, snow and rain in three separate weather events. (The Muskoka watershed) has experienced flooding in the past, including as recently as 1976, 1980, 1985, 1998, 2008 and 2013,” reads the statement. “When MNRF issues flood watch or warning messages, anyone living near the affected water bodies should take the necessary action to secure any vulnerable property and closely monitor the flood conditions for changes.”

It also stated that municipalities also have a role to play in identifying areas at risk of flooding, developing flood contingency plans, and guiding the approval of applications submitted under the Planning Act.

It stated that in preparation for normal spring freshet conditions, the MNRF did the following:

• Monitored local water levels, snow conditions and weather forecasts;
• Lowered water levels in lakes influenced by ministry dams in the Muskoka River watershed; and
• Provided watershed condition updates to local municipalities and emergency responders.

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