Hope for the best and prepare for the worst – that was the message Parry Sound-Muskoka Conservative MP Tony Clement had to give the morning following the US election results.
While some hung on until the early hours of Wednesday morning watching the results come in, many Canadians woke up in disbelief when they learned that a small majority of their American neighbours had chosen Donald Trump as their leader.
For the disheartened who are afraid of Trump’s extremist rhetoric, Clement had this to say: “America was built by its founders to be a balancing act. Even with a Republican Congress there are alternative centres of power. Paul Ryan is not Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell is not Donald Trump. They will hold on to their power.”
Clement said he’s heard this may be the first time that the Republicans hold both houses in Congress – the House of Representatives and the Senate – as well as the Presidency since 1928, “but at the same time the institutional checks and balances are still in place in American politics,” he insisted. Clement said he does not think someone like Republican and Speaker for the US House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, would automatically do Trump’s bidding. “Trump is going to have to negotiate with congressional leaders. That doesn’t change, whether it’s a Democrat or Republican in the White House.”
What happened in the 2016 American election?
“Clearly a lot of Americans were upset and disgusted with business as usual in Washington,” said Clement. So disgusted, he added, that they took a chance on Trump. He also noted that the parties themselves were divided. Not all Republicans favoured Trump nor did all Democrats favour Hillary Clinton. “What you had in America going into Election Day was a split Democratic Party and a split Republican Party. I’ve never seen that in my lifetime.”
Trump delivered an anti-political and anti-business elite message that appealed to millions of Americans, not just white Americans outside of the cities but inner-city African Americans as well, who felt ignored by the establishment, said Clement. He said Trump could benefit many Americans who have felt disenfranchised up until now. “So if he lives up to his rhetoric this could be something that is beneficial to more Americans who felt that they were totally shut out and ignored by official Washington,” he added. “I think that was the prime driver of how Trump was able to overcome his obvious failings as a candidate when people were of the opinion that despite his failings he represented something that they could vote for.” Clement was also quick to point out that Trump got over a quarter of the Latino votes. “He got as high or a slightly higher percentage of the Latino votes than Mitt Romney did [ in 2012.]” What remains to be seen is how and if he follows through with those who feel disenfranchised, said Clement.
Have international relations become more dangerous with Trump at the helm?
Clement argued that things were not safe before Trump either. “Things were not going well for America. China was pushing in Asia, Russia was pushing in Europe, Iran was pushing in the Middle East. Are things unsafe? Yeah, they’re unsafe, but they’ve been unsafe for a while,” he argued.
“Americans don’t like where they are right now. They don’t like where they are economically. They spent two trillion dollars in Iraq trying to be the policeman of the world and those bills have been hurtful to the U.S. economy. Many empires have fallen in history just for lack of funds,” said Clement. “We’ve got an increasingly aggressive Russia and an increasingly aggressive China and an increasingly aggressive Iran – these are large regional powers that will want to take advantage of America’s situation.” And while many might think less American power and intervention in the world might be a good thing, be careful what you wish for, warned Clement. “Sometimes the alternative is much more authoritarian, much more dismissive of human rights and our values, our values of diversity or accommodation are not held by Mr. Putin or by China or by Iran.”
Trump has said he can forge much better relationships with all three countries. “He has definitely soft-pedaled Putin. He claims he can get a better deal from Iran and he can get a better deal from trade talks with China and he can get a better deal from Putin. I guess we’re all going to find out together whether that works or not,” according to Clement.
What about Trump’s misogynistic and xenophobic rhetoric?
Clement said it’s too soon to tell whether Trump as president means a deterioration of gender equality. “It’s too soon to say that this automatically means a roll-back of hard-fought and hard-won rights.” What about talk of building a wall to keep Mexicans out? “Again we’re going to see where rhetoric meets reality – where’s it going to go?” he questioned.
What does this mean for Canada?
Clement said no matter who is at the helm, Canada will have to work with its biggest trading partner. “Mr. Trudeau is going to have to represent Canadian interests and one of our core Canadian interests is getting along with whoever is in the White House and getting along with the US Congress because it is in our economic and political interest to do so.”
While Trump has come out against trade agreements such as NAFTA, Clement thinks his anti-trade stance was primarily focused on Mexico. “We were kind of caught in the slip-stream of his anti-trade rhetoric, which was really designed to be a message about Mexico.” Clement said Canada will have to remind Trump and his team that trade with Canada is a win-win for both countries. In terms of fears that Trump may be more disposed to military action abroad, Clement does not subscribe to that theory. “Of the modern Republican nominees, he’s been the most almost anti-war, if I can put it that way. He had some harsh things to say about intervention in Iraq and so on, but at the same time he is very committed to destroying ISIS.” Clement suspects Trump will likely urge allies such as Canada to pay their fair share of America’s military prowess. “So I expect a change of policy there and maybe a demand from the United States that Canada play its role more than Mr. Trudeau wants to do.”
Other policy deviations with Trump at the helm include building the XL Keystone Pipeline, which would carry crude oil from Alberta to refineries in the U.S. Following opposition from environmental and political groups, the Obama administration cancelled the project in 2015, but Trump has vowed to support it.
Clement spoke to Huntsville Doppler from Vermont the morning after the election. “I’m looking out on the Vermont mountains and they’re still here. America is still here. I know that a lot of people are sad and surprised and shocked, but you know, life goes on. Let’s all hope for the best and plan for the worst.”
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Good read