By Hugh Holland
One hundred and twenty years ago, the transition from the horse and buggy to vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) took nearly 50 years. Today, the world must again manage an orderly transition from ICEs and oil-based fuels to electric vehicles in 50 years (2000 to 2050) for two very important reasons: to help avoid a climate catastrophe and to replace oil as the sole and finite source of motor fuels well before proven global reserves of oil are depleted. You be the judge about which of those two reasons is the most important to this and future generations.
EVs are not new. 60 years ago (pop. 3 billion), battery-powered lift trucks were widely used to eliminate dangerous exhaust emissions in enclosed factories and mines. Today (pop. 8 billion) the earth’s atmosphere is the factory roof that is trapping those dangerous emissions. But many people still have questions and concerns about electric vehicles. The purpose of this article is to try to answer the most frequent questions and concerns.
- Oil is a finite resource. How long will proven reserves last?
The audience was on their feet with fists pumping as Donald Trump declared in his July 18 acceptance speech, “We will drill baby drill. We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country by far. We are a nation that has the opportunity to make an absolute fortune with its energy.” That might have been true 60 years ago, but certainly not today. The next morning, the fact-checkers at the New York Times said, “This is false. According to the US Energy Information Administration, (and the International Energy Agency) the US has proven crude oil reserves of 44 billion barrels, which would put the country in 10th place. Venezuela, with 304 billion barrels of oil reserves, is in first place, followed by Saudi Arabia (259 billion), Iran (209 billion), Canada (170 billion) and Iraq (145 billion). The United States ranks fourth in the world in natural gas reserves.” Simple arithmetic shows that on their own, US domestic oil reserves would last only 6 years. (44, 000,000,000 bl / usage of 19,687,287 bl x / day x 365 days = 6.1 years)
Even if the US could double its reserves, which is beyond imagination and at what cost, they would last 12 years. BP’s arithmetic shows the world’s proven reserves could last 50 years. Canada could be among the last five oil producers as smaller global reserves are depleted. That is why it is especially important for Canada to aggressively reduce its huge emissions from oil production.
- How much do oil-powered vehicles contribute to climate change?
Globally, extracting and refining oil and burning it in internal combustion engines is responsible for 33% of human-produced emissions. In Canada, that number is closer to 50% because a full 1/3rd of our natural gas production is consumed to make heat needed to separate bitumen from the Alberta oil sands. That natural gas heat can be replaced by Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors, which can supply more than enough clean electricity for Alberta and, at the same time, can co-generate essentially free and clean heat needed to melt the bitumen.
- What are the types of electric vehicles and how do their energy efficiencies compare?
On a “well-to-wheels” basis, Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs) deliver 73% of their original energy to the wheels. Hydrogen-electric vehicles (HEVs) deliver 22% to the wheels because clean hydrogen is made by using electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, but you must first make the electricity. The hydrogen is stored in a tank and then recombined with oxygen in a hydrogen fuel cell to make electricity to power the wheels. Liquid fuels in internal combustion engines deliver only 13% of the original energy to the wheels because most of their original energy is wasted as heat through the radiator and exhaust systems.
- What does regenerative braking have to do with the energy efficiency of an EV?
Regenerative braking uses the vehicle’s momentum (kinetic energy) to put electricity back into the battery instead of wasting that energy as brake friction and heat. When you ease up on the accelerator, the electric motor becomes a generator that makes electricity and slows the vehicle. For average drivers, 15% to 30% of the vehicle’s kinetic energy is captured, and a very pleasant driving experience is created. Traditional mechanical brakes are still there, but you seldom need to use them.
- What about charging EVs at home and on the road?
A Level 1 – 110-volt charger (comes with the car) works with any 110-volt outlet and provides 6.4 km per hour or 8.5 hours for a 55 km day.
A Level 2 – 220-volt charger (also comes with the car). It needs a 220-volt clothes dryer outlet and provides 40 km per hour or 1.4 hours for a 55 km day, or 10 hours at the 7 pm to 7 am off-peak hydro rate for a full charge.
Charging in condos is more problematic, but companies are emerging that specialize in designing, financing, and installing condo garage charging systems.
Level 3—Public DC fast chargers add 125 km in 10 minutes or 36 minutes for a full charge. Canada already has 27,000 public chargers, including 5,000 DC fast chargers. Your car will tell you when to charge and where to find an available charging station. The Trans-Canada highway and all 400-series highways have DC fast chargers at convenient intervals.
- What about EV range in summer and winter?
The average car in North America is driven 20,000 km per year (55 km per day) Average EV range is 450 km, so the car can go 450 / 55 = 8 days on a full charge. On a longer trip, DC fast chargers can add 125 km in a 10-minute rest break, or 250 km in 2 rest breaks. We should be taking rest breaks every 3 hours or 300 km.
In winter, the range is reduced for both EVs and ICEs, but both are manageable. Commercial fleet data shows that at -18° C, ICEs lose 19% of range due to warm-up, idling, and tire inflation. EVs lose about 29% of range due to cabin heating and tire inflation. To maximize range, EVs can be programmed to pre-heat the cabin at a designated time while plugged in. Toronto Star “Wheels” writers took a Tesla to Timmins to Sault Ste Marie to Detroit and back to Toronto on the coldest weekend of last winter. They had no problem with range or finding chargers.
- How do EVs compare with ICEs in cost to buy and operate?
EV prices are coming down as production volumes provide increased economies of scale. EVs are currently priced from $6,000 to $10,000 (about 15%) higher than comparable gasoline-powered vehicles. The higher vehicle price is offset by the EV’s lower energy and maintenance costs, so overall monthly costs are equal.
- What about hybrids?
Hybrid gas-electric vehicles are an interim solution. They are midway between gas-powered and electric vehicles in terms of emissions and costs to buy and operate. With two powertrains, hybrids are more complicated, so they have more to maintain and go wrong.
- Which manufacturers are now producing EVs?
All global manufacturers of light-duty vehicles and mobile equipment are now making BEVs. But batteries are too heavy for heavy-duty and long-haul applications, so those manufacturers are making HEVs. Kenworth (USA), Daimler (Germany), Volvo (Sweden), and Hyundai (Korea) are now making HE heavy-duty trucks. Caterpillar (USA), JCB (UK), and Komatsu (Japan) are making construction equipment using both BE and HE technology. John Deer is making BE tractors. Electric city buses are being made by BYD (China), Volvo (Sweden), Daimler (Germany), Hyundai (Korea), Proterra, Gillig, Blue Bird, and Lion (USA). Alstom (France) is making HE high-speed passenger trains that do not require overhead or rail-mounted electricity conductors. Ballard Power (Vancouver) has made long-haul HE buses and is now making an HE locomotive for CP rail freight operations. Rolls-Royce is developing hydrogen-powered piston and jet engines for aircraft. The U.S. Department of Energy selected Pratt & Whitney to develop high-efficiency hydrogen-fuelled propulsion technology for commercial aviation.
- How long will it take to make the transition to EVs?
To engineer and test hundreds of new-tech vehicle designs and to convert about 1,000 global manufacturing plants will take from 2000 to 2035. To replace 1.3 billion light-duty vehicles will take 1,300,000,000 / 75,000,000 per year manufacturing capacity = 17 years (2020 to 2040)
- Where will all that electricity come from?
EVs are 60% more energy-efficient than ICEs, so we already have enough electricity for mostly overnight charging in BC, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland, where most of our electricity is reliably produced 24/7 by hydro and nuclear sources. Continuously producing Zero-emission Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) will be added as required.
Fifty per cent of our oil consumption goes to gasoline production, which will be replaced by electricity for EVs, and 50% goes to diesel and jet fuel, which will be replaced by hydrogen. Wind and solar outputs tend to be counter-seasonal, so Hybrid Wind / Solar farms are ideal for producing hydrogen, which provides the energy storage required for intermittent sources. Hydro Quebec and Newfoundland Hydro already have contracts to provide clean hydrogen to Germany.
11. What about power failures?
Gas stations will be down, and gas-powered vehicles with a low tank will be stuck. EVs that top up at home every night will seldom be stuck. Home generators can charge your EV at 110 volts.
- What about EV warranties?
The typical base coverage for EVs is the same as that for ICEs: 3 years / 60,000 km. The powertrain warranty is 8 years / 160,000 km on the EV propulsion battery vs. five years / 100,000 km on ICE powertrains.
- What about fires, floods, and insurance?
US National Traffic Safety Board data shows the number of fires per 100,000 sales at 3,424 for hybrids, 1,529 for gas, and 25 for electric. Hybrids are higher because they have both gas and electrical components packed together tightly in the same space.
The UK Automobile Association found there is no difference between an EV and an ICE regarding what you should do when confronted with flood water. Proceed with great caution and never drive into moving water or water that is more than 10 cm (4 inches) deep. EVs are designed to ensure that the batteries, motors, and high-voltage wiring are sealed and well-protected from water. When an ICE engine takes in water, it stalls immediately and is damaged.
Insurance company data shows 6.1% of EVs are write-offs after collisions vs 18.4% of ICEs. EV battery protection is second only to passenger protection.
- What about funding for road maintenance?
Motor fuel taxes DO NOT directly fund road maintenance. Sales taxes on both vehicles and fuels go to general revenue, which funds road maintenance. The decline in tax revenues from the sale of ICE vehicles and fuels will be more than offset by reduced environmental damage and healthcare costs, as well as increasing tax revenues from the sale of EVs, electricity, and hydrogen.
Considering that 33% of global emissions come from extracting and refining oil for use in internal combustion engines, the transition to battery-electric and hydrogen-electric vehicles and mobile equipment is arguably the single most important strategy in the mitigation of climate change, and just as importantly, the replacement of a finite resource before we run out of it. People are always wary of change, especially when it comes to one of the biggest purchases they will ever make. Hopefully these answers will help people to be more comfortable when the time comes for them to make that choice.
Hugh Holland
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this topic. It is stimulating for your readers, and a great topic.
Disruptions in the economy do not occur by one to one replacements for what we have People with horses didn’t switch to cars because they were faster, but because Henry Ford made cars 10 times more affordable than a horse and buggy. Within 15 years, nobody bought a horse and buggy. Everyone was buying cars.
Gas cars are going to be replaced, but not a one to one replacement with BEVs. They are going to be replaced with Ubers that drive themselves. They are called robotaxis.
You can read about them on the internet, and understand how they are going to do it. The technology to make it happen, (AI) is progressing at phenomenal speed. If you are interested, I can take you for a ride in my self driving car. It will make you a believer. Every Tesla built since 2016 has an AI inference engine in it, and the software to make it work is nearly ready. Robotaxis will be cheaper than public transportation and more convenient than your own car(no parking, no charging, no driving).
Did you know that every car has 14 times more software than a commercial airliner. People believe that airplanes work on Autopilot, but they are not yet ready to believe that cars will do it. It will be 10 times safer than humans, because computers pay attention 100% of the time (humans just can’t). We will be free to play with our phones.
This is a very informative article. Answered many of my questions about EV. Thank you.
Do you have sny comments regarding oil tankers and large cargo ships that burn crude oil. I understand that they are possibly the 2nd largest polluter next to cars. Are there plans to convert these large cargo ships to non fossil fuel?
The early adopter wave for EV’s has crested, and sales have slowed significantly, globally. In response, in Ontario, EV and battery manufacturing investments are slowing. Despite the large government subsidies, most domestic manufacturers are suffering substantial losses on their EV business. Additionally, it is likely Canada will follow the US lead in increasing substantially tarrifs on much cheaper China EV imports, meaning EV prices will remain elevated for some time.
For the average family, paying an extra $15k for an equivalent EV (yes, that is about the current gap) is just not an option. If you have only 1 family vehicle, the current EV’s are not suitable for most.
Maybe next generation EVs with superior range and charging time, lower purchase costs, slower depreciation rates and vastly expanded charging infrastructure will boost adoption rates.
Charging infrastructure needs to expand well over 10 fold to meet the 2035 federal mandate of no new ICE auto sales. The power grid infrastructure to meet that demand, plus the other federal emissions goals, must double, and current investments are no where near up to that challenge.
Government mandated auto sales targets are unrealistic and not going to work for consumers or for domestic manufacturers.
The energy transition is happening, it’s just going to take significantly longer than the government targets. In the meantime, rather than putting most of the funds into lowering Canadian emissions, more needs to go towards resiliency and impact mitigation. The increasing forrest fires and floods prove that out. Canada is just 1.5 % of global emissions and declining. Hard realities..
IN the info I have been getting is there are not enough charging stations say between here and Hamilton. What if your stuck on the highway for hours, know this to happen. Actually happened thus thurs. There is a fire risk higher than gas vehicles. The resources used to make these short distance vehicles is way worse than running gas. Hugh batteries, very heavy, last 5 years and then where are they getting dumped to leach into the soil. I would rather go back to horse and buggy before spending an outrageous amount on an electric vehicle. Conspiracy theory, government wants us limited to how far we can go from our house.
I am with you Mr. Tapley, a no frills EV would suit me fine.
Also an EV can power your home during an outage for 3 days. A week or more if you conserve.
No noisy, expensive, GHG emitting backup generator needed.
Many EVs now have 120V and even 220V outlets you can plug into. Instead of plugging into a generator.
Most gas stations are dark during outages.
An EV may only cost $100/year for “fuel” in Ontario if you opt for the new ultra low 2.8 cents per kWh overnight rate.
Instead of $100 every week or two for gas. See calculation below.
Actually EV owners get FREE “fuel” courtesy of the gas burners because EV owners avoid paying the carbon tax on gas but still get the big rebate.
For the two of us the carbon tax rebate is $920/year. Far more than we pay in the tax. YMMV.
Of course Poilievre wants to axe that green benefit that many people, especially low incomes, depend on.
There is so much excess power available overnight in Ontario it’s often worth less than nothing.
We sometimes have to pay neighbouring states to take it believe it or not.
Selling it for only 2.8 cents is better for taxpayers than paying to get rid of it.
Which is why zero new generation or distribution infrastructure is needed in Ontario for EVs so long as most continue to charge overnight at low rates..
Even if all cars, not just new ones, suddenly went EV they would only use half the 30% excess that exists right now overnight.
On most grids demand drops 30% at night which is when EVs typically charge.
Go to IESO to see the typical demand drop on a graph.
We switched to the new ultra low 2.8 cents rate and save $200/year without even having an EV, yet.
Many other hours during the week it’s also a lower rate except for the 28.6 cents per kWh rate 4-9 pm weekdays.
We avoid that most of the time with the BBQ and a toaster oven (1/4 the energy of a full size oven).
We have timers on the hot water tank and hot tub so they only ever heat at the ultra low rate.
2.8 cents (4.3 cent including delivery) is cheaper than natural gas heat (including the ever increasing carbon tax).
Our electric bills are now often less than 5 years ago.
For many people much more expensive, GHG emitting, natural gas hot water tanks would be obsolete.
Assuming the electric tank is big enough for all the hot water needed in the morning when it’s off.
The dishwasher is also programmed to only run in the middle of the night when the hot water tank is on.
$100/year calculation.
A Tesla Model 3 uses 15 kWh per 100 km.
The average yearly distance for Canadians drivers is 15,000 km.
That means in a year a Model 3 would use 15,000 X 15/100 = 2250 kWh x $.043 (.028 + .015 per kWh delivery) = $96.75 incremental cost for the year if you only charge at home at the ultra low overnight rate.
Could someone make me a simple EV. A pickup truck with NO BELLS and Whistles. No screen, minimal options. I want it to go from my business to the dump and to Huntsville and back. No further.
Color does not matter but it must be 4 wd. I don’t want to pay for fancy entertainment and communications software, as I don’t need it or want it. Believe it or not I know my way from Dwight to Huntsville.
As SIMPLE AND CHEAP AS CAN BE MADE and I’ll buy it.
The ford Ligtning is the exact opposite of this need, with so many options I’ll never ever use and all the fancy trim etc. Not needed for my use.
To William Kidd – See item 13 above about fires.
If gas stations are down during a power outage and you can charge your ev with a home generator (ICE engine) why can’t the gas station use a generator to pump gas? Also a Ford f150 lightning burned to the ground recently because of the battery. How safe are the batteries?
To Karen Haywood and John K David, Tesla sold its first popular Model S in 2012. The average vehicle lasts 10 years. That means EVs are about to start the first round of recycling. To stay in business, the recycling industry will gradually transition from recycling ICEs to recycling EVs. A higher percentage of EV battery materials are recyclable than are ICE engine and transmission materials. EV battery materials are almost 100% recyclable. Supplying materials for the first round of ICE replacement will be a challenge. After that, no problem.
But those supply chain questions are moot points since we have no choice but to replace oil consuming vehicles before we run out of finite global reserves of oil, and before the global climate becomes completely unlivable due to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels.
To John K David. 1) The US Navy has been using SMRs to safely power submarines and aircraft carriers for 75 years. Last year, China launched the latest SMRs for commercial purposes. Ontario Hydro says their first SMR at Darlington will be ready to go by 2027. 3) EVs use 60% less electrical energy than ICEs use in chemical energy and electricity is cheaper in $ per kwh than gasoline. Electricity for my 2024 Chevrolet Blazer EV will cost $790 per year compared to $3,516 in gasoline for my 2020 ICE Blazer. That will save me $2,726 per year or $16,356 in energy costs for 6 years of average ownership.
Bravo Mr. Holland, again I learn something. Thank you so very much.
Don’t know when Alberta Danielle Smith (UCP) will catch up?
Hugh, very interesting commentary. A few questions for you to hopefully answer?
1)How many SMRS are presently being used in the work and what percentage of the electrical grid are they contributing to?
2) I was very interested in the Tesla experiment of driving in winter, you stated they had no problems finding power in their trip, I wonder if you can tell us how long that trip took, as time efficiency for many is important.
3 how much power above normal household use is required to generate the faster charge you talk about, and why wouldn’t condo’s
want to install these to make recharging of occupants quicker so many can use the same charger?
4) more ICEs continue to reduce weight of their vehicles by using aluminum and plastic( produced from oil) in their vehicles. In Europe that percentage is now over 11%. Shouldn’t EVS be doing the same?
5) our EV Battery producing plants using only clean electrical energy in the materials extracted for these batteries, as well as the transportation of them to the plant and then in the production of the battery itself?
6) how long do these batteries last in a vehicle and are they rehabilitated, or recycled and used in the production of new ones, with a net zero carbon footprint achieved?
Thanks in advance for your answer to these questions.
We have had a hybrid volt since 2018. Ive never owned a car that was as easy to use, not get stuck in the winter, and other than normal wear and tear brakes and such we havnt had to spend much on it. It charges overnight during low cost power and i would glady buy another if chevrolet started making them again.
Thank You Hugh,
What are the cost/benefits to the EV over ICE when it comes to extraction of oil over the mining of the lithium and the manufacturing costs? Also what about battery replacement life on an EV? Are these not things to be considered in the cost of replacing ICEs vs EVs and the environmental impacts that will have to be accounted for?
Thanks
Great question and answers about EV’s and ICE powered cars. Hope people read and share. So much misinformation out there about EV’s. Thank you for writing it!