By Hugh Holland
The election of a Poilievre government with his simplistic solutions to complex problems would set Canada back for much longer than he could be in office.
The next government would have to pick up the pieces and fix his errors and omissions. He doesn’t seem to realize that the world is much more complicated than it was in 2006 when he was in the Harper government. At 41 million, our population is now 1/3rd higher than the 31 million in 2006. Our civil service has grown proportionately to deal with the more complex problems of today and especially tomorrow. It should be noted that even Poilievre supports increased immigration to make our economy a little more competitive with the elephant to our south.
Very little information is available yet on his official platform, but an August 19 article in the National Post provides a few clues. The general theme seems to be to cut the size of the federal civil service to enable cutting taxes. We’ve seen that movie before. Harper cut the civil service by 5% and was unable to do the work necessary to get a single pipeline built in his 10 years.
The Liberals restored the muscle of the civil service and were able to build the TMX and Coastal Gas link pipelines, as well as manage a global pandemic and make significant progress towards climate change mitigation and many other improvements in childcare, dental care, and pharma care.
Too many Conservatives have blindly bought into Poilievre’s storyline without doing any fact-checking. He says the recent spike in inflation and prices of food and housing are due to the growth of Canada’s civil service. That is total nonsense. He claims cutting the civil service and cutting taxes will reduce the costs of food and housing, ignoring the internationally established facts that since January 2020, the difficult series of world events has been the root cause of inflation. First, companies around the world reduced production as private and public consumers hunkered down during COVID-19. Then, as the pandemic eased, global supply chains were unable to meet the sharp resumption of demand due to COVID-related staffing interruptions. For example, previously arranged immigration in Ontario dropped only 10% from 2019 to 2020, while housing starts dropped by 52%. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East further complicated supply chains for energy, and housing, and food. The result was a global spike in inflation as shown, but Canada managed through that better than many peer countries.
*IMF Forecasts 2024. **Price of Homes and infrastructure vs Income is heavily influenced by density and climate
Apparently, Pierre needs to be reminded that if the Prime Minister is personally responsible for all the bad things that happen, then he is also responsible for all the good things that were previously listed. He needs to be reminded that there are ten provincial premiers (7 Conservative) who are primarily responsible for provincial files, including health care, education, and housing. So, the debate always boils down to a game of political chicken to see which level of government is responsible enough to tweak taxes to support needed services.
The IMF and TD Economics both forecast significant rebounds in Canada’s leading economic indicators in 2024. The above objective comparison with peer countries shows Justin Trudeau and his experienced and capable cabinet ministers have much to be proud of, and Canada is clearly NOT broken as Poilievre proclaims. Canada is second only to the much larger economies of scale in the US as a preferred stable destination for foreign investment.
One of the biggest contributors to our improved GDP in 2024 is the completion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion (the first new pipeline to be approved and built since 2007) that enables West Coast shipping to increase from 300,000 to 890,000 barrels per day (215 million barrels per year x $57 per barrel = $12 billion per year). The world will need Canada’s oil for at least another 20 years as smaller reserves are depleted and as we transition away from fossil fuels.
But as climate change advances, countries will be under pressure to work together as never before, and Canada will be under immense pressure to reduce emissions from oil and gas production which make our emissions per capita the second highest in the world. If our oil and gas producers want to have a future, they must join the transition to new forms of clean energy as the global auto industry is doing. Will Conservatives join the work of our other three parties and help oil and gas companies to become clean energy companies, or will they remain stuck in the past?
The National Post says Pierre is “fed up with the climate change obsession.” But, this year’s weekly occurrence of extreme climate events (tornadoes, floods, and wildfires) is costing billions and making municipalities desperate for more funding to deal with resulting homelessness and rebuilding infrastructure. For example, when Jasper, Alberta, lost 358 homes to the recent wildfire caused by climate-related drought conditions, about 1,350 people were instantly rendered homeless. ($285 million in lost property value) and the Premier of Alberta begged for help from Ottawa. How does Poilievre’s obsession with cutting taxes square with that urgent need?
The National Post says Poilievre would eliminate anti-scab legislation that helps to reduce violence during labour negotiations. That, plus cutting taxes and government services, is sure to create turbulent times and expand the equity gap between the top 5% and all others.
Canada is far from being broken. We are among the most privileged people in the world. Being a nagging, negative critic is much easier than being a positive, inspiring leader. Will we ever hear some credible positive thoughts from Pierre Poilievre?
Hugh Holland
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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Mr. Holland and commenter Mr. Armstrong, thank you for sanity and educational information in your article. Ms. Hudel, we have just come through a pandemic, have you had previous experience with such an event?
I concur that Federal Conservatives do not recognize climate change in their platform, nor do they have helpful policy. I take issue with their position on eliminating CBC (at a time when demonstrably rabbit sink holes and silos of information/disinformation flood airwaves and screens).
I suggest that the worst PM in my lifetime (74 yrs) has been Stephen Harper and the united Conservative branch Canadians live with today. Please recall that SH, the Ford brothers, and others went to the USA to take election campaigning advice from the GOP (Grand Old Party- Republican). So, the populism in campaigning has been increased with simple, catchy slogans. Let me know if you require a quote about the visit to GOP, USA..
Our Ontario Conservative government has not been up to the mark with climate change policy (admitting it is “important” only). We have beer at gas stations but remain deserted for public healthcare personnel.
My only other comment is that Conrad Black’s National Post tends to lack some credibility for me. Admittedly, the owner’s character, previous felonies, and cheating behaviours come into my assessment.
Again, let me know if you need a quote on this assertion.
No we are not better off now than in the past.
Great column, Hugh! I think that you’ve nailed down both PP and the Conservative’s Achilles heel bang on.
The current dissatisfaction with Mr. Trudeau primarily reflects broader trends affecting incumbents everywhere: a long time in office – let alone challenging global economic conditions – often fuels a desire for change. Let’s not confuse it with any great love for Mr. Poilievre. And, the fact is, for all their screw-ups, the Trudeau Liberals have passed a lot of relevant legislation that enhanced Canada’s social safety net, thus directly impacting the lives of all of us.
Despite Mr. Poilievre’s lead right now, he seems unable and unwilling to rise above the bully behaviour that he’s been displaying for 20 some years as an MP. He may well be the next PM which means leading the entire country, not performing for his core supporters and its lowest common denominator. But he continually demonstrates in a loud, braying and obnoxious way, that he will always choose the low road by pandering to ignorance. His dismissal and casual ignorance toward Canada’s experts in various fields is ugly and degrading to political debate. Like bullies everywhere, Poilievre erroneously believes that he is leading because of himself as opposed to the rejection of Trudeau.
One hopeful sign for small l and big L supporters is found in the small percentage of voters who might switch from their current party to support the Liberals. According to Abacus, around 7% of voters are considering this shift. The main factor is a significant discomfort with Pierre Poilievre’s nasty ways or a big improvement in economic conditions surrounding housing and food costs.
Yes, the Liberals path to recovery is closely tied to Trudeau’s personal approval but as journalist Michael Harris recently wrote, “there are few things less relevant than a mid-summer poll with no election in sight.” Trudeau has time to right the ship and again it’s ‘feelings’ that might do it for him. He has been very ‘likeable’ in the past and Mr. Poilievre has never had any warm and fuzzy feelings directed his way. He’s just deservedly unlikeable and no amount of glasses shedding/tight t-shirt wearing and million dollar make-over is going to change that.
Excellent column Hugh! One of your best in our opinion.
A quick search on the Canada.ca shows the Federal Public service employed 0.85 % of the Canadian population in 2010. In 2024 it is now 0.90%. So a growth of 0.05% relative to the our population growth. I feel that’s more than acceptable especially when you also consider the programs that have been implemented by our Federal government to improve and protect Canada for all Canadians. See https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/human-resources-statistics/population-federal-public-service.html
Over the years we have voted Liberal, NDP, Green and Progressive Conservative. Which party gets our vote depends on which one going to improve Canada and the lives of Canadians. Poilievre is going to set Canada back years if not decades if he becomes our next prime minister. Like Trump, the only thing he seems capable of is to continuously to spew vitriol and outright lies.
Hugh Holland, the Federal civil service added over 100,000 workers, or about 43% growth under Trudeau. It grew across all departments, not just Immigration or for temporary COVID programs. Over the same period, Federal government sourcing contracts grew at double that rate..
Trudeau wants a bigger government, more control and more spending, the conservatives, the opposite. If we were getting more value for all the new spending, so many people wouldn’t be upset. But this government has demonstrated a persistent lack of concern for value. Far too many examples, flagged by many audits and public debacles, only the most recent being the Arrive Can mess.
Most Canadian’s don’t want more of Trudeau now. Too many disappointments.
.
Dave Wilkin lets be fair. From 2015 to 2024, the size of the federal public service increased by 0.2% of population to manage urgent financial supports for business and workers during the 3 years of the Covid 19 pandemic, and to expedite the flood of 230,000 refugees from Afghanistan and Ukraine as demanded by the Canadian public.
Inflation is now fast subsiding, but Poilievre and the extreme-right media (Conrad Black’s National Post, Sun Media, Rebel Media etc.) as well as oil industry-funded think tanks like the Fraser Institute are continuing to gain cheap political points by misinforming the public as to the impact on the size of the Public Service of Canada. They are using that as a reason to cut taxes and services to the benefit of the top 5%, with no regard for the negative impact on the quality of life of the other 95% of Canadians. What is more important, tax cuts for the top 5%, or the quality of life for the other 95%?
Poliviere does not support ‘A Woman’s Right To Choose’, wants to cut CPP ( which is still less than half of what Pierre Trudeau promised us), has no concern for the environment or climate change, and believes he can dictate NDP policies. This dangerous person is too much like the former USA president vying for re-election. BEWARE !
Hugh, thank you for your eyes open evaluation of where Poilievre would lead us. People really need to pay attention to the disastrous direction he would take Canada.
As for Dave Wilkins comments, about the only really unarguable point of his is many people seem to want a political change. While his 80% claim does not appear to be supported by data from Angus Reid, Dave undoubtedly wants to spin his comments in the most anti-liberal direction as he can. It is enough to make me wonder if he is a paid conservative supporter, or if he just parrots conservative brochures.
It is really hard to have a balance view when you get your info from decidedly right wing leaning media.
We would be on a much worse path if Poilievre was leading us.
Well said!
There is a map on this website that shows the world’s biggest problems to Global Warming. You will see Canada has a very tiny spot. As well, we are often a very cold country and really need heat from different sources (as well as solar, etc.) and we are spread over long distances so need gas to get from here to there more than many other countries. Here is the website:
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/12/us/countries-climate-change-emissions-cop28/
Thank you, Hugh. I’m glad to know that I’m not the only liberal (note the small l) in this town.
Whether Canada is broken is a matter of judgment, based on past experiences & outlook. The fact remains that almost 80% of voters want a change in government. Here is likely why, contrary to what is stated in this piece.
1. Almost half of Canadians are living paycheque-to-paycheque. Canadian housing affordability has declined dramatically, while basic necessities consume a larger % of disposable income. Canada has some of the least affordable housing globally.
2. Most economic growth was fueled by a rapid and unsustainable rate of population growth. On a capita basis, there has been no real growth for 2 years, and many Canadians are no better off than when Trudeau took office.
3.Uncontrolled immigration related population growth policies also worsened the healthcare crisis.
4. The Federal civil service didn’t expand proportionate to population, it grew 3x faster. Yet service levels didn’t improve.
5. 80% of recent real GDP expansion was government spending driven (Stats Canada). Productivity growth and business investment are low compared to most wealthy countries. Not a formula for improving prosperity.
6. Stating that Canadian businesses will suffer if we don’t pursue (Trudeau-level) aggressive emission reduction targets isn’t right. Almost 80% of Canadian exports go to the US, more for our resource sector. The US doesn’t even have a carbon tax, so we won’t be shutout of major export markets over emissions progress. Canadian energy production emission improvements are still much better than in most major energy producing/exporting countries.
7. Global fossil fuels combustion continues to grow as population and consumption rates growth exceeds renewables expansion. What is irresponsible is not acknowledging this hard reality, regardless of what Canada does, and our big under spending in climate resiliency and adaption continues.
Is Canada broken? Maybe not, but we’re clearly not on a good path.
Hugh, very nice to see a more balanced view on the current political landscape. I retired to Huntsville in 2022 and many recent conversations seem to be about blaming Trudeau and the Liberals and being supportive of Poilievre’s simplistic populist approach. I am generally non-partisan having voted for both Liberals and Conservatives in the past, basing my vote as much as I can on the facts of their records, platforms and their observed actions and behaviors. I really believe Canadians can get to a better place by not giving in to our emotional impulse on political issues and take the the time to step back, understand all sides and make an informed decision based on the facts of the situation. Electing a party to represent us as Canadian citizens for several years is a serious decision and warrants a more balanced weighing of the facts by all of us.
You hit the nail on the head. .Mini Trump.
Snake oil salesman. PP is both
Thank you for your thoughtful and well founded comments and observations. Alas, PP is stuck on slogans, with little substance.