By Hugh Holland
Speaking at the June 27, 2022, G7 Summit in Germany, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, “The world does not need to choose between solving the existing energy security crisis and the existing climate crisis—we have the technologies and the policies to solve both at once.”
Dr. Fatih Birol underscored that in addition to making the most of the existing energy supply, the best answer to the current energy crisis is a huge and rapid scaling up of investment in energy efficiency (electric vehicles, mobile equipment, and heat pumps), renewables, and other clean energy technologies.
In addition, energy supply chains need to be more resilient to ensure that international efforts to create a sustainable future cannot be further disrupted by the weaponization of energy as in Russia’s current weaponization of oil and gas, and China’s near-total domination of solar panel manufacturing.
The IEA report emphasized that nuclear power has a major role to play in the transition to low emissions energy systems. Ten Energy Ministers from across Europe last week wrote a joint opinion in which they argued for much stronger investment in nuclear power in Europe. According to the World Health Organization, nuclear energy is the lowest by far in terms of fatalities per billion-kilowatt hours of clean energy produced. The IEA says, “Nuclear power still faces public and political opposition in some countries, and we make no recommendations to countries that choose not to include it in their energy mix. But our conclusion is that building sustainable and clean energy systems will be harder, riskier and more expensive without nuclear”.
The emerging fleet of SMRs (Small Modular Nuclear Reactors) is being developed in some 40 engineering projects in 11 countries (including Canada) with deep and positive nuclear experience. SMRs are unique in their ability to cogenerate manageable amounts of free and clean high-temperature heat for industrial applications at the same time as they generate clean electricity to power modern heat pumps for residential and commercial heating applications. By doing so, SMRs can economically replace the 36 per cent of Canada’s fossil fuel consumption currently used for residential, commercial, and industrial heat. SMRs will be factory produced at lower cost and will be rapidly and widely deployable. The first SMR in North America will be running at the Ontario Power Generation Darlington site in 2028.
Putin’s unprovoked and brutal war on his neighbours has already raised global food prices and threatens to cause catastrophic food shortages in parts of the world. Since Canada’s Trans-Mountain Oil pipeline and Coastal Gas Link Pipeline are both expected to be completed in 2023, they can help improve the security of global energy supply chains sooner than most other possibilities, until the need for oil and natural gas can be eliminated.
The Coastal Gas Link will deliver natural gas across the 670 kilometers from Dawson Creek in northeastern BC to a facility at Kitimat where it will be liquefied and loaded on special ships for Japan and South Korea that now get large amounts of natural gas from Qatar. Gas from Qatar can then be more efficiently routed to Europe to displace insecure Russian gas. (liquefied natural gas from Qatar now travels around India and through the troubled South China Sea to get to Japan and South Korea). Coastal Gas Link could replace 5 billion cubic feet per day or 51.7 billion cubic meters per year or 60 per cent of the 85.5 billion cubic meters per year of weaponized natural gas that Germany now gets from Russia, and that is financing Putin’s senseless and brutal war.
The Trans-Mountain pipeline and the Coastal Gas Link will also enable hundreds of indigenous families to realize their longstanding dreams of being self-sufficient.
“The world does not need to choose between solving the existing energy security crisis and the existing climate crisis—we have the technologies and the policies to solve both at once.” And Canada will be instrumental in solving both crises.
I.H. Holland
Link (pdf) to 28-page G7 leader’s communique.
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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Another excellent article Hugh.
I’m always surprised when people seem to think we can’t accomplish two things at once: take better care of Canadians AND reach out beyond our borders.
Or that we have to pick one – either solve the existing energy security crisis or solve the existing climate crisis.
As you point out, we have the technology and the policies to solve both at once. Let’s get on with it.
Hugh a very detailed and interesting article as usual.Glad to see your up and informative as ever after your recent recovery.We have all been missing you at the golf course.
Mike Stevens
Very good article Hugh.
Here are few additional thoughts for interested readers. Nuclear power is the only viable technology to replace fossil fuel base load power in modern power grids at scale. Unfortunately the scale at which it is needed to displace fossil fuels means far more investment than we are currently seeing is required. Nuclear investment falls even shorter when considering that the existing global nuclear fleet is aging, with about a third of it scheduled for retirement and another third needing to be replaced or refurbished over the next decade.
Next, in 2021 Europe imported 350 billion cubic metres (BCM) of natural gas, 60% of its total consumption, of which 184 BCM came from Russia. 113 BCM was supplied from Norway, which has just over a decade of proven reserves remaining at current production levels. Also note that 2021 global LNG production was 475 BCM (excluding Russia) which if all directed to Europe would only cover 83% of their 2021 total gas consumption. (Gas data from BP’s 2022 stats review.)
Add in Africa’s growing need for energy (much of Africa is considered energy poor) and the LNG market that could be serviced from our east coast is enormous, and it will last for decades. We need a gas pipeline to the east coast with LNG terminals to help fulfill these demands.
Re the comment from John Riviere-Anderson.
Putin’s war shows once again that climate security and energy security are like love and marriage; you can’t have one without the other. What government will survive letting their people freeze and starve this winter to get to net zero emissions by 2050? 85% of the world’s proven oil and gas reserves reside in only 15 of 185 countries. Those reserves have been weaponized several times over the last 100 years.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) was established by the OECD after the 1973 Arab Israeli war and subsequent Arab oil embargo, to avoid future disruptions to global energy security. The IEA employs over 200 energy experts from 31 member countries including Canada and has become the most credible source of information on the global energy picture.
The IEA says new renewable and nuclear technologies now offer the possibility for every country to become energy independent, thereby achieving both climate security and energy security by 2050, and thereby reducing the enormous costs of ongoing conflicts and mass migration.
Over the next 30 years, total global demand for finite reserves of oil and gas will gradually decline, luckily just before we run out. But as the smaller reserves (EU, China, USA, Russia) are depleted, demand for the larger reserves (Middle East and Canada, the only stable democracy) will temporarily increase. Note that if the biggest consumers (the USA, the EU, and China) had to survive on their own domestic oil reserves, they would all last less than six years. That is why Canada’s Trans Mountain and Coastal Gas Link Pipelines are important global resources. They are the shortest, safest, cheapest, and most sensible pipeline options to access Canada’s vast resources.
The cost-benefit analysis for any project must consider those benefits and not just the costs. The opinion offered by the National Observer on the Trans Mountain Pipeline is short-sighted and badly flawed because it talks only about costs and ignores the realities and global benefits of the pipeline. The current and upgraded capacity of the Trans Mountain Pipeline is now over-subscribed well into the future. There are good reasons for that.
Please make no assumptions about any Canadian gas pipeline role in offering positive solutions for alleviating World energy deficits until the following is read in its well researched details :
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/07/14/opinion/tmx-white-elephant-pipeline?utm_source=National+Observer&utm_campaign=cbe21b6b9c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_07_14_01_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_cacd0f141f-cbe21b6b9c-254407057
Well done Hugh. It is great to have your investigative mind back at work.