A new outlook for Canada’s energy and economy: Hugh Holland | Commentary

Our global climate and our global energy supply are inextricably intertwined. You can’t change one without affecting the other.

While the world’s population added a billion people every 10 years, and the world’s best climate scientists were ringing alarm bells about the urgent need to reduce heat-trapping carbon emissions, the fossil fuel industries and much of the public denied the need for change, for their own uninformed and self-serving reasons. 

Almost every day now, we hear of the deadly effects of climate change somewhere in the world. Those who deny the reality of climate change and those who ignore the inevitable depletion of finite oil and gas reserves are creating enormous problems for future generations. The situation is complicated and raises several important questions. 

What is the global energy DEMAND outlook for the future? 

• Global energy demand is currently 161,000 TWh (terawatt hour) per year. Global population is expected to peak at 10.5 billion by 2085, but more efficient energy use is expected to offset population growth. Net energy demand will be about the same as today, but electricity demand will triple to replace fossil fuel demand.  (See appendix a) 

What is the global energy SUPPLY outlook for the future?

• Global reserves of finite oil and gas reserves (as estimated by experts at the US EIA, OPEC, and BP) are expected to be depleted in about 50 years.  
• If fully used before they are replaced, reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas will dump an additional 8 trillion tonnes of heat trapping CO2 into the atmosphere.  (See appendix b)
• Canada has the world’s 3^rd largest reserves of uranium. Global reserves can last for 100 to 200 years.  International studies show that nuclear energy has resulted in fewer fatalities than any other. 
• Energy from renewable hydro, wind, solar, biofuels, and geothermal is considered infinite.

How can we best understand the enormous challenges ahead? 

• The following chart models the scale and speed of the energy transition that must now take place to avoid the double jeopardy of an unliveable climate and massive energy shortages.  

• Note these are world average numbers, and every country will have their own unique set of numbers.  E.g., Canada has lower solar potential than Spain, so Canada might choose a higher target for nuclear. 
• But also note that that every 2075 target percentage is already being achieved by one or more countries.  For example, Canada is exceeding the target for Hydro, Denmark is already close to the target for biofuels and wind, Spain is closest to the target for solar, France is exceeding the target in nuclear, new tech promises to exceed the geothermal target everywhere.  

What could/should be Canada’s role in the global energy picture going forward? 

• The model suggests there is no chance that Canada’s 80-year supply of both oil and natural gas will not be needed thru 2075, as smaller reserves are progressively depleted. (c)  
• To that end and to help build a more robust economy and to make our energy transportation routes more secure, Prime Minister Carney has proposed a national energy corridor to transport oil, gas, and electricity where needed.  

Is a National Energy Corridor a viable project, with the following assumptions? 

• The Enbridge Line 9 would remain through Michigan to supply oil to Ontario and Quebec, and the 63 billion cubic feet per day capacity on the existing TC natural gas pipeline would remain.
• The Energy East oil pipeline proposed in 2013 with capacity for 1.1 million bl per day would be built, largely for export purposes. But, along with a replacement for the Sarnia refinery, it would provide a secure alternative to the Enbridge Line 9 under the Straights of Mackinac through Michigan, if needed. 
• The corridor would run for 4,200 km from Hardisty Alberta to Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Kapuskasing, North Bay, Ottawa, cross to the south shore of the St Lawrence River near Cornwall and go on to Levis (Quebec City) and to the Port of St John, NB.
• The Alberta oil industry would agree to reduce their heat-trapping emissions that place Canada among the top 10 emitters in the world and #2 on a per capita basis. Eliminating those emissions with geothermal energy or a small reactor would increase the saleability and selling price of Alberta oil.    
•  The national energy corridor would take 5 years to build and would operate for 45 years to 2075. 
• The plan would use an additional 10% of Canada’s oil reserves that otherwise might not be used. 
• The net benefit to Canada’s economy over 50 years would be about $2 trillion plus 150,000 jobs. (See appendix d)
• A National Energy Corridor could become the main conduit for all energy distribution, and attract workers to more parts of the country, relieving the pressure in the most densely populated regions. 
• But that is only one step in the bigger energy transformation. 

What do our fossil fuel industries need to do to survive and thrive in the long term? 

• The International Energy Agency says, “More than 1 in 4 cars sold worldwide this year will be electric”.
• Sales of energy-efficient and more-economical electric cold-climate heat pumps are surging.   
• Its time for our fossil fuel industries to think of themselves as energy industries and, like the auto industry, join the inevitable transition to the rapidly emerging age of electrification, to ensure a better future for all. They have the expertise, resources, and financial capacity needed to do so. (See Appendix HERE)

Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.

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