Hugh Mackenzie
Huntsville Doppler
There is an interesting article in the Toronto Star today (Sunday September 9) by Robin Sears, a former colleague of mine, who for a long time was an NDP strategist but in recent years, in my view, has become more of a Liberal than a Dipper. Sears is raising, once again, the prospect of a snap Federal election this Fall, called by the Trudeau Government. He actually seems to be promoting it.
Although Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has recently assured Canadians there will not be a federal election this year, the Sears article points to pressure he is receiving from “Liberal hawks” who say that the Government should seek re-election before threatened auto tariffs affect the economy, while the Conservatives and NDP are not ready for an election and before Jason Kenney’s potential win as Alberta’s Premier next year that would provide him with a bully pulpit to stump for the Conservatives across western Canada. All good self-serving reasons perhaps, but not a solution for Canadians and the challenges that face our country right now.
The Liberal hawks would say that a snap election, a year before the government’s current term expires, would give Trudeau a mandate to be tough with Donald Trump when it comes to NAFTA and to launch a counter attack to allow the Trans Mountain Pipeline to be re-launched.
To that, I say hogwash. The government already has that mandate. All a snap election would accomplish, assuming the Liberals win it, would be to award them four more years in power before they have resolved any of the serious problems that face Canada today. The time to hold their feet to the fire and demand results is before an election is held and not afterwards, when there is really no penalty for having failed.
As most people with an interest in political affairs are aware, U.S. President Donald Trump has had a bad week. First, excerpts from a book about to be published by Bob Woodward, of Watergate fame, paints a bleak picture of the chaos in the White House. Then the New York Times publishes an op-ed piece by an anonymous “senior White House official” that doubles down on the mess that’s inside. Real questions are being raised as to whether the man is fit to be President.
Trump of course is predictably reacting like a school boy, lashing out at all and sundry, including Canada, for whom he threatens “ruination”. Sadly, there is some meat to that bone as a 25 per cent tariff on automobiles would almost certainly land Canada in a serious recession. In the last year, Canada exported $57 billion in automobiles and $7 billion in auto parts to the United States. Losing this business, economists say, would result in the loss of 160,000 jobs, most of them here in Ontario.
It is against this unstable and unpredictable background that the Trudeau government is being called upon to negotiate a NAFTA deal that is fair to Canada. It is a rocky road that no one has had to travel before, with a number of land mines to navigate before a deal can be reached. It has proven to be no small task but there is no reason to hide behind an election campaign before getting the job done, one way or another.
I agree with Trudeau on two fronts. First, that no NAFTA deal is better than a NAFTA deal that is bad for Canada. In spite of the serious consequences that would have to be addressed, Canadians would support a Prime Minister who stood up to a bully and walked away from a bad deal. Second, he is right when he says that the NAFTA agreement must continue to include Chapter 19 which outlines a neutral legal structure to decide trade disputes. “We need to keep the Chapter 19 dispute resolution because that ensures that the rules are actually followed,” he said. He went on to say, “As you know, we have a President who doesn’t always follow the rules as they are laid out”. I would call that a carefully phrased understatement!
Of course, there will be no NAFTA deal without a win for Donald Trump, that he can boast about. It is fundamental to his nature. To that end, in my view, Canada will have to bend on some issues related to dairy products and cultural issues; not give in but find a compromise.
My sense is that, in spite of all the roadblocks, a fair NAFTA deal can be reached, and it can be achieved by the Trudeau Government without an early election. If they pull it off, they will make history and be heroes. If they walk away for a good reason, they will also be supported.
As for the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the Government should just get on with what has to be done to get it built. They have determined it to be in the National interest and they are right. It will also be an important economic initiative, especially given the current instability in our relationship with the United States. If the Court decision needs to be appealed, do it. If new legislation is required, get it passed. If more consultation is needed, get it done, but don’t be held hostage. Indigenous or otherwise, we are all Canadians and we all have equal rights.
The Trudeau Government has a mandate to govern for four years. They have one year left. They should use it wisely and address the issues that are important to Canadians. This is not a time for self interest. It is a time to get the job done. It is what they were elected to do.
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Robin Sear’s article in Saturday’s Toronto Star on ‘Liberal hawks’ is misleading when he implicitly compares our current federal political situation with the situations in 1974 and 1979. In 1974 there was a minority Liberal government that had been elected in October 1972. To maintain power, it was dependent for support from the NDP led by David Lewis. After two years, in May 1974, the NDP withdrew its support, which triggered a federal election in early July, resulting in a majority Trudeau Liberal government.
In late 1979, there was a minority Progressive Conservative government led by Joe Clark, which had been elected to power in late May of that year. During its eight months in power, the minority Clark government had been propped up by Social Credit led by Fabien Roy. By 1979 Social Credit – the populist party with its origins in the Great Depression of the 1930s – was largely based in Quebec and had been supported in the May 1979 federal election by the provincial separatist Parti Quebecois government led by Rene Levesque!
In September 2018 there is no minority government, and the present majority Liberal government of Justin Trudeau has one full-year remaining in its legal mandate, though it has a constitutional right to ask the governor general to call an election at any time. Meanwhile, we do live in very interesting times!