With little more than two weeks before voting day, I guess it’s time to talk about the provincial election campaign in Ontario.
At the moment, it looks like Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives are on a roll and heading toward a second majority government. But anyone who wants to see that happen should not get too comfortable just yet.
The last ten days or so of a political campaign are when senior campaign organizers, especially those in the lead, are on their highest alert, waiting with bated breath for a shoe to drop at the last moment and change the entire direction of the campaign. It has happened before.
Some of us will still remember when Frank Miller was premier and at this point in the provincial election was riding close to 50 per cent in the polls, a sure path to a majority government. Then a week or so before voting day one of his cabinet ministers commented about an oil spill closing a road in Northern Ontario, saying it was nothing to worry about because only a few “indians” travelled on it.
That was the match that sparked an already festering tinderbox at the end of a long campaign. Miller’s numbers dropped almost overnight to the point where he won only a minority government, which was quickly snuffed out by a historical accord between the Liberals and the New Democrats. It could happen again.
If the Progressive Conservatives do not win more seats in the upcoming Ontario election than all of the other political parties combined, the likelihood that they would be able to sustain a minority government are slim to none. I feel confident in saying that because all three leaders of the other parties in the Legislature have also said it.
In a Toronto Star article in June 2021, the headline on one major story read, “Doug Ford as premier of a minority government? Not on our watch, opposition leaders say”. In that article, NDP leader Andrea Horwath said, “I would definitely not prop up Doug Ford.” Liberal leader Steven Del Duca said, “There is no way we’d be supporting Doug Ford.” And Green Party leader Mike Schreiner said, “No, I can’t see how I’d support a Ford-led government.”
Many people believe that minority governments can, and have been, effective. But these folks have all decided, months ahead of the election, that they won’t allow that to happen. That means that Doug Ford has only one choice if he wants to remain in power and that is he must win a majority government. That looks to be in the cards at the moment, but this is no time for him or his party to become complacent.
It will come as a surprise to very few who read this column that I support the re-election of a strong Ford government. But those who delight in saying I have always been a supporter of Doug Ford are wrong. I did not vote for him when he ran for the leadership of the Ontario Conservatives. I voted for Christine Elliott. I found Ford rough around the edges and bumbling at times, and I thought some of his early moves as premier, such as buck-a-beer, were ill thought out.
But I quickly learned that many of his personality traits, not usually seen in premiers, were liked and appreciated by ordinary folks in Ontario. They liked the fact that he drove around in his truck, dropped into stores and restaurants just like anyone else, stopped to talk, actually returned his phone calls, and physically helped out his neighbours in times of stress.
Some will argue that these are just photo-ops and there is some truth in that. After all, this is politics. But it is also true that these are true glimpses of Ford’s persona, that of an ordinary guy. With the exception of his elected political opponents, many people like him for that. I count myself as one of them. There is just nothing stuffy about Doug Ford.
More importantly, I think the Ford Government has done a reasonably good job over the past four years, at times, under extraordinary circumstances. No political leader could win points during the COVID-19 pandemic. You were really damned if you do and damned if you don’t. But the Ford Government did as good a job in managing the pandemic, and balancing the difficult task of deciding when restrictions were required and when they could be relaxed, as any other province or territory in Canada. COVID statistics on a per capita basis would back that up.
Even the Toronto Star, in an editorial late last year, called Ford’s plan to move out of the COVID-19 pandemic “cautious, smart and hopeful”. The first sentence of that editorial read, “Don’t look now, but something is going seriously right in Ontario.”
The Ford Government has also been successful during the past four years in creating jobs. Columnist Brian Lilley, put it this way: “There’s a reason Doug Ford is talking about jobs non-stop on the campaign trail. Nearly every sector has far more people working than when he took office four years ago, including in education and health care. On the jobs front, the numbers help him.” I would also add here that some unions have recognized this, as a number of them have uncharacteristically endorsed the re-election of his Progressive Conservative government.
All political parties promise to give away goodies at election time. It is a sad reality of politics. But measures that promote job creation and opportunities for people to help themselves, take pride in what they do, strive for excellence, and be rewarded for their efforts, are far more important, in my view, than political handouts that stifle incentive and increase people’s dependence on government. That is why reliable and innovative infrastructure is important, why a strong economy is important, and why creating job opportunities through increased manufacturing and new technology is important. That is also how you achieve the means to give a hand up to those who are desperately in need.
No doubt, in the next while, I will hear about all of the perceived areas in which Doug Ford has failed. Some of them will have substance. No politician is perfect, and Doug Ford is no exception.
But on balance, I believe Doug Ford has done a reasonable job in governing this province under difficult and unusual circumstances. There is absolutely no evidence to believe that either Andrea Horwath or Stephen Del Duca would have done better. And, in my view, there is no reason to believe that either of these two individuals can do better in the future.
Doug Ford deserves another term in office. With opposition leaders refusing out of the gate to cooperate with him if he wins the most seats but falls short of a majority, he will have to win a majority government to accomplish that.
Any other reasonable option has been taken off the table.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Sorry Mr. Mackenzie; I grew up in Scarborough, south west end.
Doug Ford reminds me of some of the thuggish boys who lived in my working class neighbourhood and attended my elementary school (it was a bit easier to avoid them in high school, with the streaming option).
These types of boys I avoided, as they were full of bravado, throwing their weight around, ready with intimidation and threats of physical violence, pleased with their influence, and readily putting others down. These bullies could be easily spotted at recess, overseeing their territory; both boys and girls stayed well away. I am unable to shake this early image. I have never had occasion to question my assessment of this early impression – whether in other education institutions or real life.
I, for one, would love a minority government; it would be a perfectly splendid solution to moderate the excesses of the current unbridled governance. Perhaps such a government would divert the public funds, currently earmarked for paving over ecologically sensitive areas of nature, to more important areas, such as health care and education.
I love the comments posted by Sandy McLennan, Anna-Lise Kear, and Brian Tapley.
Yes, under a minority government situation Mr. Ford’s nature destructive megalomaniac programs would have to be moderated and public funds would be used for what Ontario people actually need and want. I wonder, how many people of Ontario’s 15 million actually need that road down South? And, which communities, other than Mr. Ford’s building / developing buddies, actually benefit from the MZO law created by the Ontario PC party?
I feel like Millers little “Indian” looking at the oil spill, way up north. I know for a guaranteed fact that neither my opinion nor my vote in Muskoka will make the slightest difference to the result of the election as the majority of candidates and population lie to the south of us. Not only that but Muskoka almost always just goes Conservative anyway, it is a sort of tradition.
Muskoka is after all essentially like a zoo exhibit where rich people parachute in from the south in a car no local can afford to watch the exhibits of locals carrying on their lives, much like that polar bear in the zoo.
They curate their weather and activities to match the very best we can obtain here and when things are not so perfect, they just go elsewhere for their amusement.
You can bet that any programs offered by any government will benefit those south of Barrie more than any others to match up with the votes. History they call it.
Still, like that poor bear, I continue to go out and vote each election. I wonder why sometimes. Probably also tradition.
To Trisha your right but she belongs to the new blue now and is still an elected member. She could maybe be considered an independent. But is not the first MPP to change parties in mid term.
Just to clarify Ray Vowels commentary for accuracy, Belinda Karahelios, was NOT elected to the legislature as a New Blue Party member in the 2018 election, but as a PC candidate. She and her husband created the new party after Doug Ford ejected her from PC caucus.
“innovative infrastructure is important” Sure is. Highways don’t qualify.
This opinion piece talks as if we have a vote provincially, as if we vote for party leaders. In fact we vote in our local riding (electoral district), to choose one member to represent us in provincial parliament.
I’m dejected by “strategic” voting — there’s really no such thing, as we each only have one vote. The old fashioned way to vote is for who you believe best answers the question: “how do we want to live, and get along in this world?” By get along, I mean assess and develop processes and possible solutions to big problems, not steamroll your party’s agenda which was developed in back rooms and meetings we’ll never know about.
Governments have staff and experts are called in (eg. science table), and I’d like to see politicians listen, devise processes among all MPPs and get on with the work of implementing real solutions or at least improvements. With that in mind I’ll be voting for Matt Richter of the Green Party. To my ear, that party is more about dealing with issues and problems than they are about personal and party agendas. No they won’t “form government” but they will BE the government, and having members with diverse and intelligent thoughts and voices will make it work better for us all.
If anyone is interested in an option check out THE NEW BLUE party they are the only true option to the main three parties but you will never here about them on main stream media. They did not invite them to the debate in Toronto last night even after they met all the rules they made up. They are running a candidate in all 124 riding’s and have one elected member of parliament.
The last few years have presented governments with a lot of tough choices, but I’m not in position to tell the prime minister of the province how he should do his job. I do expect her or him to impress me with what they have done. I would like to hear them say, “I stand by what we have accomplished and can do more, given the opportunity.” At election time I will deliver my estimation.
There is much under federal control, so my judgement must be confined to this province. Within that limitation, if I ask myself, am I happy with the way things are; do I feel what I see now is good and improving?
No!
Health care. Housing. Employment (the enigma of high employment, but businesses clamoring for employees?) Low wages in contrast to obscene profits. The environment (most of the protective barriers erected by Bill Davis have been trashed). All these are things the province could do something about. Maybe not eliminate, but control or mitigate.
Others never had the opportunity to show what they could do, so I have no way of knowing whether they would have been better or worse. We can only see the record. Ontarians gave Dalton McGuinty 10+ years and Kathleen Wynne another 5 or so. I don’t see our track record as being that great. It seems we are only offered our own feet as targets!
I’ll ‘X’ Green. They can at least vote how they feel and not be encumbered by dictated party policies. Maybe that will be different as their popularity grows., but I’ve waited this long.
Patience, grasshopper!
I welcome an option of a minority government, for any party governing. Having to negotiate and compromise is harder work, but can often produce better and more acceptable solutions for the population served. Could not disagree with your position more.
One example of a majority government nightmare is south of the border. We are all imagining a GOP led congress, senate, and the unfolding of another possible term of DT.
MH did lots of damage with a majority government, DF a close second. We know where DF is going, given his recent record. Again, he is especially “lite” on policy platform in his campaign.
Graydon Smith will make a great Cabinet Minister in a Majority Gov’t !
I attended the early voting polling station May 15th at the Summit Centre and learned that there is, in my opinion, a flaw in the voting system itself.
The Liberal candidate for this riding was fired recently and so the Liberal party option is not available to voters in this riding. Those who want to vote Liberal cannot do so. Several ballots were thrown out because many voters wrote down the name of Barry Stanley, the candidate that was fired, not realizing that he was no longer running. Several ballots were thrown out because voters wrote down “Liberals” and this is apparently not acceptable.
When polling station workers were asked what our options are, we were told that we could not vote or we could vote for some other party that is not our desired party.
I think that the system should leave the name of the person who was running on the ballot so that people can vote Liberal if that is their choice, with some notice to say that the candidate is in the process of being replaced.
I know that not everyone will be concerned about this issue because they have no intention of voting Liberal, however I suspect that if it was their choice of party that was not on the ballot, they would be very upset.
“Thursday’s $198.6 billion budget is the largest in Ontario history, surpassing the final Kathleen Wynne budget in 2018. That budget would equate to $177 billion adjusted for inflation, according to the Bank of Canada.Apr 28, 2022″……….Not even sure what a Conservative stands for anymore…….But surely, this puts to rest 4 years of Conservative whining about Kathleen Wynne and “Liberal debts and deficits”…..And what do we get for this historic spending?…..a $10 billion dollars highway for single passenger vehicles and free vehicle registrations……And you want to give this government, 4 more years unchecked????…..we the voters, ARE stupid
How about a minority government with the conservatives and new democrats sharing power.
Would that not be a sight to behold?
Doug and Andera! Lol.