Hugh Mackenzie
Huntsville Doppler
There is a picture going viral on social media today of a popular park in Toronto which was jammed full of people over the weekend, few of them wearing masks and many less than six feet apart.
It’s like they were just let out of jail and I am sure that many of them felt exactly that way.
We are basically social animals and even under the worst of circumstances can only hack a culture of isolation for so long. We are seeing signs everywhere that people are getting fed up and allowing their need for freedom and human contact to trump common sense and safety measures designed to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Governments of all stripes in Canada have recognized that you cannot keep people locked up indefinitely. That is why they are slowly opening things up; not because anyone has a handle on COVID-19, but rather because they know that rebellion against restrictions that are currently in place is a real possibility. Managing and controlling that will be a whole new ball game.
There is a very thin line between the pace at which society can be opened up and the ability of our health care system to handle the inevitable increase in serious COVID-19 cases. That is why it is important to allow this to happen on an incremental and well-controlled basis.
The hope is that the two will proceed in tandem, so that people can gradually move about more freely and the economy can begin a much-needed process of recovery without imploding our health care system.
But people like those yesterday, and likely today, in Trinity Bellwoods Park in Toronto are putting us in serious danger of blowing all that.
Here is what Premier Doug Ford said about this on Sunday: “The images I saw yesterday from Trinity Bellwoods Park in Toronto—I thought it was a rock concert. I was absolutely shocked. We just can’t have that right now. There is still a deadly virus among us and if we allow it, it will spread like wildfire.”
The key words here are, “We just can’t have that right now.” That, in my view, is code for lowering the boom.
COVID-19 cases are already increasing in Ontario. That was anticipated. But if people start to jump ahead of a carefully planned process of opening up, if they ignore safety protocols that are still in place, we will have a serious and elongated spike that our hospitals and health care providers cannot handle.
As Mayor Graydon Smith of Bracebridge said recently, this is not about a second wave of COVID-19. We are not yet out of the first one. For that reason alone, if people flaunt reasonable and necessary controls to hold the coronavirus in check, the hammer will inevitably come down and we will be in lockdown again. There are some serious consequences to that scenario. Even the most reasonable people are coming to an end of their patience.
As referenced above, there would be a real possibility of massive civil disobedience. That is not a pretty picture, but it is one for which governments at all levels will have to be prepared. We are seeing signs of it now and if further suppression of public activity becomes necessary because people won’t follow the rules, we will surely see more.
When the COVID-19 pandemic first became apparent, there was talk of the federal government invoking the War Measures Act to give them extraordinary powers that included suspending many civil rights of Canadians. Some of us will remember Justin Trudeau’s father doing just that during the FLQ crisis in Quebec. It remains a tool that the federal government can use and, in spite of all its implications, if things get out of hand there is a real possibility that they will do so.
Democracy tends to become more fragile through any national crisis and this pandemic is no exception. It is important, therefore, not to give government an excuse to exercise more power because once obtained they are often reluctant to relinquish it. Civil disobedience could easily become such an excuse for more power and for an unnecessary early election.
There is also, in my view, a real concern that another lockdown could cause irreparable damage to an already stressed economy. We cannot allow this to happen.
Therefore, it is immensely important to ensure that a controlled opening up of our society and our economy is feasible and works. This means following the rules and not moving too quickly. We can do more now. We can enjoy more outdoor activities, we can enjoy expanded shopping opportunities and, in a limited way, we can enjoy family and close friends. We can see light at the end of the tunnel. But, for now, we still need to respect physical distancing, limiting personal contact to groups no greater than five, and self-isolating at any sign of COVID-19 symptoms.
In Muskoka, this all means we will have a very different summer. It will be a strange experience without the theatres and concerts and outdoor events. But that will not last forever and, in the meantime, we can still enjoy the beauty and natural resources of Muskoka.
Contrary to the opinion of some, there is, in my view, no reason why seasonal residents cannot be here as well to enjoy their cottages and sit on their docks, as long as they follow the same rules we all are required to.
Sadly, however, tourism will suffer as we will be unable to allow crowded public beaches or large public gatherings. Hopefully, we can welcome tourists back with open arms next year.
Most importantly: we need to avoid another extended lockdown. It is up to each one of us to see that it does not become necessary.
Hugh Mackenzie
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Mr. Wilkin; thank you for your key points, I would add to your summary. We know that people can be spreaders without having symptoms. We know that generations mix together in families. We know that vulnerability can be identified by such factors as age, gender in some populations, locality, living conditions, and underlying illness/chronic disease process. And we know that the epidemiologists predict a second wave.
Personal responsibility and decision-making about exposure. protective measures is dually important, oneself and others. Hopefully, as this continues the province will be in better state to identify hot spots, testing, contact tracing, and surveillance. I would love to be reassured that there is better communication between public health depts across the province (including the collecting of data) and effective co-ordination at the provincial level, in tandem with government steps.
One other thought. In our collective rush to lock-down the entire country, the system lost sight of many seniors who were also locked down in their small apartments/rooms. Far too many died there, isolated and alone (80% of all COVID deaths nationally from LTC facilities).
Let me add some facts and a perspective to reflect on when making judgement calls on individual actions. I am not pushing any particular view point on what is appropriate or reasonable and what is not. (I will note, pictures can also be somewhat deceiving).
1. In Ontario, 96% of all confirmed COVID deaths have been over 60.
2. In Canada, 74% of those hospitalized had 1 or more underlying conditions. Although not publicly available in Canada (yet), a NY City (worst hit area in the US) analysis shows 89% of all deaths in people under 65 had 1 or more underlying health conditions.
3. 75% of all Canadian COVID deaths have been in the Greater Montreal or the GTA combined.
3. The virus spreads far more easily indoors (especially in confined, restricted, poorly ventilated spaces). They don’t survive well in outside open-air environments (like parks or beaches). That is well understood by most disease experts.
All people are making personal choices now, including in this case largely the younger people. Some are clearly better informed or more mindful than others. Once the pandemic has passed, a fuller analysis will reveal a complete picture of how COVID-19 got so badly out of control in some places (mostly in large northern global cities like NY, London, Paris, Madrid, Milan, Montreal) while other areas had so few cases and deaths.
What is clear now is that most people will no longer accept staying shut inside waiting for a vaccine to come sometime in the future (maybe). This is likely most evident in the younger urban dwellers who have been cooped up in small apartments.
Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/surv-covid19-epi-update-eng.pdf
https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-05-26.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/coronavirus-what-to-do-outside.html
Just a reply to Anna-Lise Kear I was just making the statement that if what we are doing is not working then just how far do we have to go with shutting things down. How many businesses do we have to see go bankrupt and how many people will lose everything they have worked most of there lives to have and just how far in dept will our Govt go to be sure people are not starving there must be a limit someplace. Right now our great grand children are going to be paying for this.
I do try and self distance myself from others but I’ve been doing that for most of my life I hate crowds and people getting into my space LOL . For the last number of years we have shopped early before the crowds hit so not much has changed for us except the line up to get in a store at 7 in the morning before there was never a lineup.
As far as dieing if you look at the obituaries on here there has been a lot of natural deaths over the last few months nothing to do with covid-19 it’s a natural part of living.
You talk about our health care workers and yes they are under a lot of pressure but in Huntsville I think there is only one case that is hospitalized so not quite like maybe it is in Toronto there biggest worry is trying to stay safe from it. But it’s just a bit worse than all the people working in the stores that are still open.
Ray posted this little gem
“Myself I kind of think we should just open everything back up and let it spread. I know a lot will die but a lot are dyeing anyway. From everything I’m seeing most recover from it without being hospitalized. I’m old so will lkely die from something before many more years anyway it’s part of nature.”
If you want to die, go first. Others would rather live
I hate to say it but the worst case scenario is if no one from the Park event over the weekend contracts the virus.
If everyone remains healthy it will undermine any power that the government is trying to impose over its citizens. The virus spread will be interpreted as a hoax (whether true or not) and the government will fall.
Well Sweden has definitely proved herd immunity D osnt work. Italy did its best with shutting down everything, same as Spain, but they wernt quite fast enough, and didn’t have the healthcare people to support the seriousness of it. England has done more they have quarantined almost 2 million people fhat are the most vulnerable and are supplying there food and medicines to there doors, but they have ther yobs also.The inconsiderate entitled selfish people who dont care that they could be killing someone else due to there bad atitude. Look at our southern neighbours they have 100k dead and I bet it triples before this is over, hopefully that’s all it does. But if you watch license plates you will see a fair number of American vechicals up here. Natural selection at its best you can tell the smart ones.
To be completely churlish, Hugh; I never thought that I’d live to see the words “trump common sense” juxtaposed. Regarding the Park incident, the overwhelming majority of the attendees were young people; who are atypical (in that they’re invulnerable).
Ms. Kear: With respect, your dismissal of “herd immunity”, I believe, was far too hasty. Sweden’s response to the pandemic only failed to the extent that they neglected to protect their most vulnerable, i.e., those in nursing homes. They have readily acknowledged this, and have apologized profusely.
The saddest story comes out of Britain; where Boris Johnson was ready to develop “herd immunity” properly (BY PROTECTING THE MOST VULNERABLE). The Imperial College of Physicians, however, went public opposing the idea; and it was never essayed. IMHO, it would have been the most effective global approach; and universally copied, would have saved 10’s of 1000’s, if not 100’s of 1000’s lives. Using Canada as an example, 82% of all pandemic deaths have been connected to nursing homes.
Exacerbating this statistic is the number of PRIVATE nursing homes. At present, the Canadian Labour Congress is campaigning to have all private nursing homes taken over by the government (for the duration of the pandemic).
Ontario’s reasonable step-by-step approach to re-opening should be followed. It is their responsibility: Why they have chosen to cede it to districts and municipalities is a lapse in judgement, and a show of weakness.
Mayor John Tory was at trinity bellwood park socializing less than six feet without a mask. if covid was so serious why is he demenstrating otherwise he’s a leader running a big city.
Mr. Vowels, are you really ready for yourself and family to be infected with this virus? Undeniably, many of us have at some level considered our own mortality with this pandemic. Your possible contraction of the virus is not about you only, there are others to consider. So, whose/which lives do you deem as expendable? Do you think herd-immunity is the better way to go? Think about the question, “who should throw away their lives and for what purposes?”
I understand the concern and frustration with the longevity of the continued uncertainty. I have not been impacted as have many others. However, by all reports I read, Sweden and the herd-immunity mentality has and is not working. Denmark and Norway are in better positions for lives and livelihoods because of the measures taken.
Also, in my opinion, your approach is an insult and travesty to frontline workers for the health of our population. If you are frustrated, imagine how exhausted and anxious our medical and healthcare workers are. Do you advise them to “give up” all their efforts?
These times will be tougher, not easier. Thank you for listening.
Thank you Hugh for this article, immediately reminding us all that there is no such thing as universal, common sense.
Previous articles and comments have noted the need to consider others, the golden rule, etc. Trying to establish a balance between economic needs while dealing with a rampant infectious communicable disease continues to challenge all leaders. Extreme partisanship is not useful at this time of society-solidarity.
In my opinion, targeted, simple, repetitive messages about civil, communal responsibility, and the use of laws and enforcement when required, must resound together. (the old carrot/stick approach to
donkey-like behaviours).
I do have empathy for the citizens of Metropolitan areas – the lack of green spaces in areas of Toronto, another exposure of poor planning – profit development above the healthy human need to be near to a tended, natural world.
Also, we need to continue to help those most vulnerable in our communities and to publish those beneficial efforts regularly. Thanks for listening.
All the people in the park in Toronto is the reason a few of us don’t really want them coming up here in bunches this summer because they will flood our store and beaches with no regard for anyone.
It is going to be interesting to see just how many come down with the flu in the next week or two if it’s not to many then just maybe it’s been blown up and is not all that bad but the other hand if it turns out that a few thousand of them test positive then it’s going to be trouble.
Myself I kind of think we should just open everything back up and let it spread. I know a lot will die but a lot are dyeing anyway. From everything I’m seeing most recover from it without being hospitalized. I’m old so will lkely die from something before many more years anyway it’s part of nature.
The behaviour at Trinity Bellwoods Park in Toronto this weekend was outrageous, selfish and unacceptable. The lack of social distancing, ignoring rules about numbers in a crowd as well as excessive drinking by some people has put the city of Toronto in a very dire situation over the next two weeks, and that is sad.
In April of 2019 the province announced that cities and town would be allowed to make their own decisions regarding drinking in city parks. Toronto’s mayor John Tory, when asked about the right to enjoy a glass of wine in a park answered, “I know that people want to have a drink. And it doesn’t seem the world has come to an end as a result of that.”
I wonder whether John Tory is re-thinking his words right now.
The sad reality is that the virus is with us, and we’d better spend our time and effort protecting the most vulnerable and deal with any hotspots. Community spread is happening and will happen in the future. What Trinity Bellwoods shows is human behaviour, pure and simple. More of it will occur as the desire to be with friends and family overwhelms the worst fears. Let’s all declare success—the hospitals have not be been overwhelmed and the curve has been flattened-ish. A vaccine is far off, if possible at all, so let’s encourage responsible behaviour in an economy that works.
You can’t legislate intelligence !
Can any government legislate STUPIDITY. These are very concerning times
The health unit folks should have started their trace work yesterday at Trinity Bellwood’s Park by taking names and addresses of everyone as they left the park. No doubt most of them will be on someone’s list in the next 10-14 days. What a mess.
What a bunch of entitled selfish people.