Justin Trudeau is just bursting to call an election. Most, if not all, of his advisors are pressuring him to do so. It would come as soon as this summer if the prime minister thought he could get away with it. It will almost certainly come this fall.
The numbers are clearly on his side. If an election were to be called in the next few months, it is hard to see how a Trudeau Government can be defeated and, indeed, the prospect of a majority government giving them another four years of almost limitless power is well within reach.
The big question, then, is why?
Justin Trudeau is very likely the least qualified person to become prime minister in Canada’s history. Prior to entering politics, he had little to no experience in the real world related to public service or to corporate or community endeavours. He led a privileged life with few responsibilities. Were it not for his last name and the legacy of his father, he would never have made it anywhere near the national stage. Most people, when they think about it, will know that.
So why, with a history of chaos, scandal, misogyny, and generationally crippling free spending during the past almost six years, is Justin Trudeau poised to win a third term as prime minister of Canada?
For one thing, and sadly, there appears to be no real alternative.
The Bloc Québécois will never form a government outside of Quebec. The New Democrats, although growing because of Liberal mismanagement, are too far to the left for many Canadians and, in any event, the Grits have moved into much of their traditional territory. At the federal level at least, the Green Party is fractured and irrelevant.
That leaves the Conservatives, the party that should be most able to provide an effective governing alternative to the Liberals, but all they seem to have been able to accomplish lately is to shoot themselves in their collective feet.
I happen to believe that Erin O’Toole is well-qualified to be prime minister of Canada. I believe he would do a much better job than the current incumbent. But he will never get there until the party he leads moves into the twenty-first century and recognizes the priorities that are important to modern Canadians.
A recent Conservative Party convention refused to enshrine into their constitution the reality of climate change, something their leader had urged them to do, and something that any fool knows is a matter of prime importance for this generation and for those to come.
Most recently, more than half of the Conservative caucus in Ottawa voted against a motion to ban conversion therapy, a process intended to change the sexuality of people who are not heterosexual. Whatever one’s views around matters related to same-sex issues, to believe that some form of therapy can fundamentally change people from who they really are—to even believe that is a reasonable approach—simply suggests to me an ignorance and total lack of understanding. Anyone who would not welcome such an approach to their own sexuality should think seriously about that.
Again, Erin O’Toole was not one of those people, but if he ever wants to be prime minister he needs to lay down the law with his caucus. He talks about a big tent, but a big tent is no good if it is full of holes. Conservatives should learn from the Liberals about party discipline. It will never be more important than it is now.
Conservatives have a lot to offer Canadians, especially when it comes to saving this country from the endless spending and debt that can lead to an inability to sustain economic well-being and eventually to an inability to provide needed social programs to Canadians. On these issues, most Conservatives are on the same page and these, plus urgent emerging matters such as climate change, are what they need to focus on if they ever want to see government again. That is a tall order for an election that will likely be held before Thanksgiving.
Another reason that I believe Justin Trudeau is on the cusp of a majority government is that many of us, over recent years, have become somewhat immune to the truth. Facts seem less and less important than the agenda. Both politicians and the mainstream media, with their own agendas and their own set of facts, are responsible for this. Fake news and “alternate” facts are creeping into the new norm. We have seen it in the United States and we are seeing it here.
Former Liberal strategist Warren Kinsella cut to the chase recently when he wrote, “Indifference to the law, disregard of democratic norms, arrogance and casual corruption: the Trudeau people share more in common with the Trump people than you’d think.”
Indeed, think about that. Think about the contempt of Parliament, the pillar of any democracy, not once, but four times. The prime minister has labelled Parliament as dysfunctional and a place of obstructionism. He may be right, but he fails to mention that it is his total disdain for and ignoring of that body that is the cause.
Think about the misogyny and disregard for the law. Just one example of this, as one wag opined: “Trudeau is the first prime minister in history to dispose of an attorney general for not being corrupt.”
Think about the prime minister, almost six years in power, ignoring well-known and blatant sexual harassment and abuse in the Canadian military.
Think about the untendered government contracts to his friends, one of whom was in his wedding party.
Think about the so-called independent Senate he created with so much fanfare, and then recently appointed two well-known Liberals to that body to tighten his control there.
Really now, who does that sound like? To some degree, I believe that the persona of Justin Trudeau has hijacked the Liberal Party in the same manner that the persona of Donald Trump has hijacked the Republican Party in the United States. I find that concerning.
One thing that I do agree with Prime Minister Trudeau about is that this Canada Day, which we will celebrate on Thursday, should also be a time of reflection. Of course, we should reflect on our past, we should not erase it, we should not ignore it, we should learn from it, and we should recognize those who have been negatively affected by it.
It is also important to reflect how far we have come in other more positive ways as a country, still one of the best in the world, and to think about what is essential for our future. Those elements of who we are and who we aspire to be are important too.
I, for one, will not be talked in to being ashamed of being Canadian. I fully acknowledge where we have fallen short. I believe we should not cover it up. But I am far more interested in building this country up than I am in tearing it down.
That is why I will celebrate Canada Day on Thursday. I hope you will too.
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc. and enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
Don’t miss out on Doppler!
Sign up here to receive our email digest with links to our most recent stories.
Local news in your inbox so you don’t miss anything!
Click here to support local news
Sad isnt it, the pundits always want a alternative to the Liberals but their answer is simply to bring back the old Progressive Conservative party, which was rejected by voters for well..being just a Liberal Lite party.
If those truly are my options, Liberal or Liberal Lite..well then pass! It means no change. Its the same clown patrol as in the States, just passing the trough between two corrupt groups and no real change occurs. Not falling for it again and I’m suspecting, looking at the polling numbers and the tepid responses to his “different” policies, voters aren’t falling for O’Toole either.
Either represent REAL change, real alternatives or just move to that one party state it appears our establishment media seems so intent on establishing. At least then voters can make a real decision on how to accomplish change then.
Mr. Holland; I agree with your more balanced assessment, JT has made some Tough Decisions -the kind of decisions which Conservatives suggest are beyond his ken.
Rex Murphy’s recent call for leadership from Stephen Harper made me cringe. He has an economics degree, but spent much of his working life with party politics, as I understand (by all means, correct me, if necessary). Did that make him a better leader? Our former “party of one” PM? I have been very grateful that SH was not our PM when Covid 19 struck.
Thanks Mr. Holland for weighing in on this commentary.
Hugh, I have to agree with you that one of the factors behind Trudeau’s standing in the polls is lack of competition. But I have to disagree with some of your other assessments.
By what measure is he the least qualified person? Do you have to be a lawyer or an accountant or a businessman (How did that work out with Trump?) or is it possible that a teacher can be “qualified”? Do you have to be old to be qualified, or is it possible that a younger person can be qualified for high office? Joe Clarke and Emmanuel Macron were 39. Teddy Roosevelt was 42, Trudeau and JFK were 44, and Brian Mulroney was 45. Both Macron and Trudeau had privileged backgrounds, but could it be that gave them the broad and progressive worldview that voters were wanting?
You talk about a history of chaos and scandals. Which Prime Minister or President has ever escaped those kinds of allegations? The Ethics Commissioner has the information and resources to properly investigate and I trust he has dealt with the allegations appropriately.
Certainly, Trudeau has had his issues, but If we want to be fair and give credit where credit is due, lets take a look at some accomplishments through which he led and inspired his team. He quickly re-established Canada as a credible player with the UN and in the fight against climate change. He survived frequent dealings with what any G7 leader would say was the most difficult US president in history, who presented Canada with a very tough trade negotiation, a bad relationship with China over the Meng arrest, and the shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner with 138 Canadians on board. Both of those problems were the result of Trump’s misguided cancellation of the Iran Nuclear Agreement and subsequent sanctions.
Trudeau is getting the first new (Trans-Mountain) pipeline built in 15 years. That will add substantially to Canada’s biggest export. While to some, that may seem counterproductive to climate change, the transition to clean energy is going to take at least 30 years and the world will need Canada’s abundant oil reserves while other smaller reserves are depleting rapidly.
Canada has had by far the lowest number of Covid deaths per million of any of the G7 large industrial economies except the island of Japan. The Liberals finally passed the much-needed legislation to control the flow of military style assault weapons. And every international rating available shows that by 2023, Canada is expected to have the second lowest ratio of Public Debt to GDP among the G7 economies; second only to Germany and slightly lower than the UK and France.
All of that doesn’t look like incompetence to me, and apparently to the opinion polls.
The Proportional Representation electoral system may work better than First Past the Post. In Europe, out of 43 democratic European countries, 40 use a PR system or partial PR system. Only the UK and France use FPP, Germany uses a mixed system. The ones who use PR electoral system are (alphabetically): Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Iceland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Moldova, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.
Mr. Mackenzie; just some thoughts.
1. Diefenbacker and Stanfield would have more in common with today’s NDP than today’s Conservative Party. Today’s NDP are not in favour of nationalizing everything, for example.
2. Part of O’Toole’s challenge to be competent will be in how he manages his Party and its platform (as you have noted, on climate change, conversion therapy).
3. I cannot help view the competence of the Federal Conservative Party and its policies against the incompetence of the Provincial Conservative Party. DF’s father was an MPP. DF has used the populism, GOP-style during campaigning, not unlike Trump. This is DF’s foray into provincial political leadership, without previous experience as a sitting member of parliament. His policies are not environmentally friendly per se. He has dragged his heals in understanding and using the advice of epidemiological science at several crucial stages of our pandemic; he may not have chosen some of his advisors wisely (think of the early issues concerning sex ed).
4. Sir John A Macdonald also had a son, Sir Hugh John Macdonald briefly in federal politics, and briefly as a previous Premier of Manitoba – he did not do so well.
You could consider a commentary on father-son politicians in the future, based on these 3 pairs.
A nation that ignores its history does so at its peril. It cannot be changed because it is history. What is said is said. What is done is done. We can and should learn from our history so mistakes are not repeated. If we try to obliterate those pages of history which are clearly wrong how can we learn not to make the same mistakes.? Our responsibility is to learn so we prevent the mistakes of the past happening again. The consequences of the Residential Schools deserves the nation’s remorse and sorrow, but as a nation we must learn our history, the good and the bad, both are equally important.
Am I mistaken in scratching my head here? How can Justin Trudeau just call an election? He has to have the assent of the Governor General that he is having problems governing and needs to find a solid mandate. During COVID, Trudeau has been operating in full on subterfuge and arrogance of a majority government, with no accountability or opposition whatsoever. An election should have been called over abuser of power.
We are operating in a one party system with no counter balance of the Queen, like our history provided. This departure from tradition is a further descent into despotism. I hope Trudeau gets roundly trounced. He does not understand Canadian history and he has no respect for democracy.
Hello Bill (Wright): Regarding your comment about Sir John A., you might want to check out some other history books. Contrary to what many pelople want to believe, MacDonald was not the Architect of reidendial schools. Many of them were in place in what is now Canada before he became Prime Minister. It is true that he allowed them to continue. But it is a subsequent Liberal Prime Minister, Sir Wilfred Laurier that made Residential schools mandatory for indigenous children. Further it is the Government of Canada that had ultimate responsibility for residential schools and the stanadrds that applied there, and for 70% of the years these schools existed, the Liberals were in power. “Alternate Facts” aside, that seem to be so popular these days, that’s the way it was.
Religion, whether it is Christianity or any of
the worlds multiple interpretations of a holy entity has no place in politics and should form no part of Governing.Best of luck to Erin in eliminating it from the Party .Hillier and his like thinking political cohorts , need to be recognized for what they are and that is destructive . Fortunately political terms are 4 years or less in the case of Our lightweight PM.
Let’s do all we can to make sure it is a minority government in place, federally And provincially.
Justin Trudeaus Really Got To Go
https://www.smule.com/sing-recording/2591440786_4037649081
The Solution
Let’s all send Ole Justin To The Moon
https://www.smule.com/sing-recording/2591440786_4037673409
Yes, Hugh…It would seem that the natural governing party of Canada will call an election…but that is politics…strike when your opponent is weak…
As you stated the Blues have been shooting themselves in the foot..but they have that as an inbred characteristic…along with telling half the story, or half the truth. You also seem to have forgotten the scandals of Gerda Munsinger, Mellowroony and brown paper bags reputedly full of money.. there are many more, but “scandals”: and politics appear to go hand in hand.
Also, dare I mention the first [ Conservative] Prime Minister’s involvement with residential schools…..My history books say he was one of the Architects of that system…and they also indicate a continuation of it by the Liberals, and other parties. Shame on all of them.
Maybe we need a change to the governing system…a reduction of power to the PMO… less party whips commandeering voting to toe the party line, rather than the constituents desires…and let’s really get the people involved with plebiscite voting, with ballots worded such that the populace understand the ballot.
At least, at the moment, we have a minority government…that results in a joint effort to run the country…in many ways, that works well, as it limits unbridled power.