By Hugh Holland
The last few years brought droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, and 1000-year floods around the world. In Canada, thousands of buildings were destroyed, contributing to a shortage of materials, skilled labour, and homes. The $47 billion rebuild from the 2022 Hurricane at Fort Myers was just getting started when Hurricane Helene brought another 215 deaths and $160 billion in damage across seven states. Next, Hurricane Kirk is expected to reach the east coast of the US and Canada just ten days after Helene. My friend remarked how quickly the news of these events fades away. Unless personally affected, we seem to have become numb and accepting of mass destruction.
If you’ve ever been in a greenhouse on a hot day, you know the plants will die if the vents are closed. The ability of emissions to change the earth’s climate was first observed by scientists 100 years ago, but since then, an eight-fold increase in population and consumption has put the earth’s natural warming mechanism on steroids. Anyone paying attention knows that climate change is now a major cause of global inflation by destroying food crops, homes, and infrastructure, widening the economic gap between the haves and have nots, and driving mass migration.
When will global warming become unsustainable? In theory, “Global warming becomes unsustainable when the cost of repeatedly replacing weather-damaged cropland, buildings and infrastructure exceeds the economy’s ability to pay for it, at a global, regional, or country level”. But the downward spiral of unsustainability begins as insurance protection dries up.
We now know the causes of climate change and how to fix it or at least mitigate it. But it’s fair to say that it will take a total team effort, from UN global climate agreements to national and subnational governments, industries, small businesses, and yes, individual consumers, to fix a problem of this magnitude and consequence.
Canada is one of the top 10 GHG emitters that contribute over two-thirds of global emissions because we are #4 of 200 countries in emissions per capita. Have-not countries feel the worst effects. But, according to the Canadian Climate Institute, “Damages from the impacts of climate change in Canada are already here and by 2025, will be slowing Canada’s economic growth by $25 billion annually, which is equal to 50 per cent of projected GDP growth. Prevention and adaptation could reduce future climate change costs by three-quarters.”
Canada has always been capable of great national projects like the CPR, the 7,400 km TC highway, the St Lawence Seaway, 72 major pipelines, 18 of the world’s safest nuclear reactors, and the James Bay hydro project. Our top priority now must be to decarbonize our economy.
But climate change is making politics dysfunctional, pitting the West against the East. Western farmers are told tariffs to protect Ontario’s EV manufacturing from cheaper Chinese imports will be at the expense of exporting Western grain to China. Should governments be spending their not-unlimited funds on tax and service cuts for a few or on building a more sustainable future for all Canadians?
What efforts are energy producers making to reduce their emissions? Many countries, including Canada, are increasing capacity for clean wind, solar, geothermal, and nuclear electricity. But we need to replace fossil fuels much faster. Most countries, including China, are working to eliminate the use of coal as a fuel. The world’s biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, has pledged to invest $180 billion to cut its carbon emissions to net zero. In Canada, the federal and Alberta governments are helping to fund geothermal and modular reactor research and projects to eliminate our single biggest source of emissions, the melting of heavy oil out of bitumen with natural gas, and they are funding carbon emission capture and storage as an interim measure.
The oil industry has all the resources and expertise needed to become the source of green hydrogen fuel for the emerging fleet of clean hydrogen-powered heavy trucks, construction equipment, trains, and aircraft. Oil and gas producers would be smart to become an early adapter in the emerging hydrogen industry well before the inevitable depletion of finite oil and gas reserves.
What efforts are energy consumers making to reduce their emissions? Transportation and heating are the two biggest sources of emissions on the energy consumer side. Global auto producers are aggressively reinventing themselves, at great expense, to make BEVs (Battery-Electric light-duty vehicles) and HEVs (hydrogen-electric heavy-duty vehicles and equipment). The heating equipment industry is reinventing itself to make the new energy-efficient heat pumps. The steel and cement industries are converting to cleaner heat sources with electric arc furnaces.
Small business and individual consumers must also do their part. Producers can only produce what we consumers will buy. That’s where a carbon tax and refund program is important. How does it work? It’s both a carrot and a stick. We pay the tax when we buy gasoline, diesel, natural gas, and propane, and the standard tax is refunded to taxpayers three months later. You can keep on doing that forever, and it will cost you nothing. Or, when it comes time to replace your vehicle or heating system, you can opt for a much more energy-efficient and clean electric replacement. Then you will pay zero carbon tax for the electricity, but you still get the standard refund every three months. That refund pays for the electricity used by your energy-efficient EV and or heat pump.
Carbon tax and refund tools are used by most of our peer countries, and they work. In Norway, an oil-producing country with a climate much like Canada, emissions dropped 12% from 2015 to 2020, and the country became the world leader in the penetration of EVs and heat pumps. Canada’s emissions dropped 9% in the same period, with a lower penetration of EVs and heat pumps. The benefit of the carbon tax will double and triple as Norway’s vehicle fleet moves from 25% to 50% to 75% electric.
The carbon tax provides incentive to reduce emissions without adding to personal or national debt. Governments also provide purchase rebates on EVs and heat pumps. We could drop the carbon tax and increase the purchase rebate, as the US did, but that would add to our national debt.
Where is our sense of priorities? Taylor Swift’s six concerts are expected to bring $282 million to Toronto’s economy, plus even more congestion and air pollution. While people complain about the cost of food, gas, and rent, they are apparently willing to shell out $1,400 for an average Taylor Swift ticket. $1,400 is less than an average household pays for an entire year for the carbon tax, which is fully refunded and will pay for the clean electricity for an energy-efficient EV and heat pump. And where does most of the Taylor Swift money end up? Her net worth is estimated at $1.6 billion US.
Hugh Holland
References
Economic Impacts Of Climate Change – Canadian Climate Institute
Canadian Climate Institute: Climate Change Canada Policy Research
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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Always look forward to Dave Wilkin’s “Voice of Doom”, quoting rising dependence on fossil fuel resources that are finite. ( no solutions offered for cutting emissions, speeding energy transition) The next PM Pierre Poilievre believes that “voluntary generosity” works and government intervention does not. So can we expect environmental regulation will be cut and so also huge subsidies to the oil and gas industry will be cut? Oil and Gas are reluctant to proceed with carbon capture projects or even clean up abandoned wells with their own money. They want taxpayers to increase our portion of the tolls for them to ship their product in the pipelines we built for them- to make money for themselves – and deepening our investment in what is essentially a stranded asset as China finds other energy sources. (By the way the total LNG emissions cost has recently been found to actually be worse than coal emissions.) The oil and gas sector is not demonstrating its own “voluntary generosity” but are increasingly demanding government intervention and dollars from taxpayers, which I expect our next PM and his followers to celebrate at their Doom Party. Mr Wilkin, are you picking out the plastic decorations and gas- filled balloons and starting the party plans now?
There can be Hope. In the words of an eloquent Huntsville Highschool student, who was a featured speaker at the recent Muskoka Watershed Council Summit “Resilience”- Hope is inspired by action, which leads to more action- so we will need to follow her sage advice locally with our “voluntary generosity” in the midst of all the usual Big Business and our own government adding to our nature deficits.
When covid was on our pollution levels dropped. If we restrict global trade and global travel we could get cleaner air, as proven during covid. Also if we could get about 5 billion people to move from China, or India to Canada our per capita contribution to greenhouse gas would drop. What about requiring all importers and manufacturers being forced to make the ” made in” the first part of the product label (in large print)so I can easily see and decide if I want to buy something made in a country that is a big polluter. That way I can fight pollution ….no carbon tax required. And I do believe we can’t keep going the way we are.
There are limited years ahead of us where fossil fuels can be mined, especially oil. Maybe natural gas supplies will last longer and coal supplies even longer than natural gas. But it is limited.
We need to move toward other sources, sooner rather than later.
Renewables plus storage are now less costly than fossil fuel power, according to Germany.
“Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.”
Those loud pops are the sounds of uninformed Conservative minds blown.
Conservatives would have you believe the future is a crowded, fossil fueled dystopia.
Absolutely not true.
When Russia shut off the gas to Germany they were desperate for alternatives.
They researched and realized renewables plus storage are now cheaper than fossil fuels.
Energy independence is another big reason to go renewables and storage.
No more wars fighting over oil.
Every country has access to sun and wind.
Renewables are not just solar, wind and hydro. It’s also geothermal.
Eavor is based in Calgary but Alberta is not interested in their massive, clean energy resources available 24/7.
Germany is.
“Eavor Enabling Local Energy Autonomy… Everywhere”
They are completing a demonstration project in Germany.
“According to the Canadian Geothermal Energy Association, there is a geothermal resource potential of 388,500 megawatts (MW) in Alberta.”
But Dani Smith prefers far more expensive GHG spewing nat gas.
Quaise Energy is another company that claims their ultra deep, ultra fast drilling method makes geothermal power available everywhere.
“In Texas, ex-oil and gas workers champion geothermal energy as a replacement for fossil-fueled power plants”
Peak oil may have happened already.
Just the start of refineries shutting down due to lack of demand. Good riddance.
“Oil company Phillips 66 says it will shut down Los Angeles-area refinery.”
“Electric car sales create ‘demand destruction’ as oil price collapses.”
China’s auto sales are 10 million/yr more than North America.
They have rapidly switched to 55% EVs which means a massive amount of oil is no longer needed.
100% in the next couple of years.
In spite of the huge increase in power demand:
“Analysis: China’s emissions set to fall in 2024 after record growth in clean energy”
“CHINA ENERGY 8 August 2024 Analysis: China’s CO2 falls 1% in Q2 2024 in first quarterly drop since Covid-19”
“China is installing the wind and solar equivalent of five large nuclear power stations per week.”
“It’s installing at least 10 gigawatts of wind and solar generation capacity every fortnight.”
“Energy experts are looking to China, the world’s largest emitter, once seen as a climate villain, for lessons on how to go green, fast.”
“Interview: China’s renewables ‘pave the way to rapidly reduce coal reliance’”
“China installed a record 293 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar in 2023 – pushing its total capacity to 1,050GW, according to a new report.”
“Concurrently, China is increasing renewable energy capacity at a staggering pace that far outstrips every other nation on the planet.”
“Coal power stations losing billions – China’s coal-fired power boom is OVER”
The Chinese are planning to build EV plants in EU countries and Mexico to avoid tariffs in the EU, US and Canada.
A couple of years at most before inexpensive EVs will be available in Canada.
$100/year for “fuel” for an EV at the new 2.8 cents per kWh overnight rate in Ontario.
Extremely expensive nuclear power also has no future.
“French giant cancels nuclear power plant and turns off 6 nuclear reactors.”
Hugh, using emissions data from 2020 is misleading, as a big chunk of the Canadian economy was shut down that year due to the pandemic. If we use 2023, which is much more meaningful, Canadian emissions from energy declined just over 3% from 2015, a third of the 9% you referred to.
John Devins correctly pointed out population growth is a prime driver of emissions growth. By 2050 the global population is forecast to grow by another 1.5 to 1.7 billion people, the vast majority in developing countries, led by India. The other big driver of the continuing growth in global emissions is the rising standard of living in developing countries. By 2050 the forecast is for another 3 billion people to join the middleclass.
Taken together, these factors are driving global energy demand up, by another 50%. Because fossil-fuel energy is still significantly cheaper, at scale as I previously explained (sorry Bob Braan), much of that energy growth remains fossil-fuel based. If this wasn’t the case, it’s growth wouldn’t be continuing as it is. It’s also a primary driver for the (energy-insecure) EU energy costs being tripple ours.
Developing countries place raising their standard of living over fighting climate-change. In developed countries, most people support fighting climate-change, they just want someone else to foot the bill. Until countries are prepared to spend a whole lot more on a green energy transition, things are unlikely to change much.
Lastly, criticizing the few Taylor Swift ticket buyers is neither relevant nor helpful.
I will make it short and sweet. When you get the Bloq, the NDP and the Green parties getting up in parliament and saying ” Yes, Trudeau should go but letting Pierre be Prime Minister is a bigger threat to the country ” All he has is fancy slogans ‘ Axe the tax” etc. He has no clue as to how to fight climate change. Why ? Because he does not believe it is happening. He is a Trump clone.
John Devins, population growth is indeed one cause of emissions, but not in the way you might think. The population replacement rate is 2.3 births per woman. Relatively wealthy countries have lower birth rates but generate more emissions per capita.
Two-thirds of global emissions come from 10 countries that have either a low population with high emissions per capita like Canada, or lower emissions per capita but a large population like China and India. These 10 countries are all below the 2.3 population replacement rate, so their shrinking population will help a bit.
The other one-third of global emissions come from 194 countries, 105 still below population replacement rate but with mid-range emissions per capita, plus 89 poorer countries in Africa and Asia with birth rates higher than replacement rate, but very low emissions per capita.
It’s tragic how people and companies will destroy their own environment without strong government regulations. We went through that era, and it wasn’t pretty. It would be disaster to go back to that with today’s level of population and wealth.
Thanks Mr Holland for your article. Always lots of thoughtful presentation of the facts. The truth about what our dependence on fossil fuels and derivatives has done to foul our planet. It can be overwhelming to contemplate and so easier for some to pretend that it isn’t happening now, especially as fossil fuel lobbyists, their “astroturfing” fake social media influencers, our banks and political leaders continue to delay any real solutions. More alarming is the rising tendency to falsely blame other people like asylum seekers, temporary foreign workers and immigration generally. In our home now known as Canada, we must take responsibility for our choices, including voting and investment. Choices made have ignorantly, selfishly damaged the inter-connected natural world we depend on.That is a Debt we can no longer continue to ignore. It will leave us all homeless on an increasingly unliveable planet. As with the Big Tobacco billion dollar settlement, we can’t stop this cancer by continuing to smoke that big fossil fuel cigar we have been sold. What future will our children, grandchildren and their children inherit.
The root cause of increased CO 2 emissions and thus global warming is population growth. Go back and look at the statistics from 1900. They tracked (or estimated) CO 2 emissions. The population was about 1.5 billion people. Now our population is 8 billion and CO 2 emissions are actually slightly lower per person but significantly higher overall – because of the fivefold increase in people.
If we really want to fix the problem send India, China and Africa birth control. Same with Canada. If we immigrate 1 million people per year, of course our CO2 emissions are going to go up. If we want lower CO 2 numbers reduce our population growth.
Every day our energy consumption is getting more efficient. The market takes care of that. Last thing we need is more government telling us how to run our lives and trying to fix our problems with more taxes!
It’s very interesting that addressing climate change is not a cost any more.
It’s a big cost saving.
The future is bright with lower costs for energy, cars and health care, along with fewer power outages.
You will have far more disposable income as a result.
Lower costs for health care due to cleaner air.
All due to the massive Chinese effort to lower the cost of solar panels, EVs and batteries.
Watch the video “Report reveals Solar and battery storage is now cheaper than fossil fuels”
Which is why 80% of new energy sources are renewable and storage.
Not just to mitigate climate change.
Watch the video “Solar levelized cost of electricity has fallen by over 90% since 2010”
“56% lower than lowest cost fossil fuels.”
And dropping.
Battery costs have dropped even faster. Lower by another 50% likely next year.
Grid batteries make renewable power available 24/7 and can also prevent power outages due to unreliable fossil fuel and even nuclear plants failing.
Bonus.
Oil rich Texas is actually leading the way in the US and recognizes the massive benefits of inexpensive renewable energy.
Unlike Alberta or Ontario.
Watch the videos: “Texas beats California: How oil country became the renewable energy leader” and “Batteries save Texas after coal plant fails during worst heatwave in decades”
After a nuclear plant failed the week before that as well.
Dani Smith in Alberta will tell you that’s impossible and that batteries are too expensive.
While the lights went out Apr 5 in Alberta due to no grid batteries when unreliable fossil fuel plants failed.
And Ontario goes rapidly backwards due to Ford’s many mistakes.
Search “This community just threw a wrench into Doug Ford’s plans for new gas plants”
Search “Polluting gas will provide 25% of Ontario’s electricity in 2030 – up from 4%”
Search “Court sides with youth in historic climate case against Ontario”
Doug Ford was fighting to pollute more against students in court.
And lost.
Only Conservatives would pay much more to pollute. Including paying lawyers.