Two months ago, Pierre Poilievre and his federal Conservative Party were polling 20 points ahead of the governing Liberals, an almost insurmountable lead with an election on the horizon. Today, there is only one polling point between the two parties and that is well within the margin of error. Indeed, it will not surprise me if the Liberals pull ahead of the Conservatives in the next week or so, at least for a while.
So, what happened?
First, the polling numbers over the last several months, although accurate, did not indicate how many people would actually vote for the Conservatives as much as it revealed how many Liberals were fed up with Justin Trudeau, wanted him gone, and were prepared to park their potential vote elsewhere until he was on his way out the door.
That is not a new strategy. People who like their party but not their leader have been doing that for many years. This time, however, it worked. Between the time Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Liberal leader and Mark Carney became Prime Minister of Canada, disaffected Liberals returned to their home base in droves. If Conservative organizers did not see that coming months ago, they should seek another profession.
Recently, Mark Carney has emphasized his differences from Justin Trudeau and has taken steps to shift the Liberal Party from the far left, closer to the centre of the political spectrum.
Carney has talked about smaller government and followed through with that by appointing a significantly reduced Cabinet. He has taken steps to abolish the consumer carbon tax which had become an albatross around the Trudeau government’s neck. He has promised a focused government, dealing with Canada’s immediate needs and he has put less critical issues and government initiatives on the back burner. He has told Donald Trump in plain language that Canada will never be a part of the United States.
It is not surprising then, that many Canadians look upon Mark Carney favourably.
However, Mark Carney still has a great deal to prove. Not unlike Pierre Poilievre, he has shown signs of trying to control the media, and in the long run that never works. He will face tough questions about his involvement in one of Canada’s largest property development companies’ decision to move its head office to the United States, despite his previous denial that he had had anything to do with it, when in fact, he did. Also, whether he likes it or not, Mark Carney is now a politician and not a bureaucrat and he will have to show that he knows the difference. Politicians win elections. Bureaucrats generally do not. While he will try to rest on his past accomplishments, others will try to tear them apart. Politics is a blood sport and Mark Carny has only just entered the arena.
All signs point to a federal election very soon, and there should be no doubt that we need one, although in politics, there are always surprises. Mark Carney should not expect a coronation like the one he received from Liberals a week ago. In spite of the current Carney honeymoon, Pierre Poilievre still has an even chance of becoming Canada’s next Prime Minister.
Poilievre has successfully tapped into the suppressed anger and frustration of many Canadians, emotions that have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the perception of a spendthrift government that failed to address the real issues facing Canadians. This ability to connect with the electorate’s dissatisfaction gives him a strong base of support.
Pierre Poilievre has positioned himself as a serious opponent to Mark Carney, leveraging his experience and political acumen to challenge Carney’s new leadership. While Carney has made strides in shifting the Liberal Party toward the center and addressing some of his predecessor’s controversial policies, Poilievre’s consistent messaging that Carney’s Liberal government is much the same as the Trudeau administration will have some effect.
As well, Poilievre’s campaign is likely to focus on practical solutions and fiscal responsibility, themes that resonate with voters who are concerned about government spending and economic stability. His proposals to reduce government size, eliminate unnecessary taxes, and streamline bureaucratic processes can attract a substantial portion of the electorate who prioritize financial prudence and effective governance.
Also, Poilievre’s ability to mobilize and energize his supporters cannot be underestimated. His grassroots campaign strategies and engagement with the public through various platforms have created a loyal and motivated voter base. This mobilization effort could translate into a significant voter turnout, which is critical in a tightly contested election.
But, like Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre has some serious obstacles to face.
I have never met Andrew Tumilty. He is now the Director of Issues Management and Crisis Communication for Enterprise Canada, a national firm for which, some years ago, I was a founding partner and CEO. He has recently written an excellent article in the Toronto Star, in which his first paragraph said this:
“If Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives lose the next federal election, it will not be because the Liberals changed leaders. It will be because the narrative of the election changed, and Poilievre couldn’t find the right role for himself in the new story.”
Tumilty is absolutely right. Thanks to U.S. President Donald Trump, his tariffs and his threat to our sovereignty, the game has changed significantly, and Pierre Poilievre needs to change with it if he wants a chance at the top job.
There is really only one issue, the one ballot question in this election, and that is who can best deal with the Trump Administration to protect and even enhance Canada’s future. Who has the leadership skills to accomplish that?
This election is no longer about the carbon tax or other liberal issues. It is no longer about Justin Trudeau or how allegedly Canada is broken. Trudeau is history and no longer Pierre Poilievre’s punching bag. And thanks to Donald Trump who, in his delusion, may think that Canada is broken, most Canadians are now more united than ever before.
So, Pierre Poilievre has to stop expressing negativity and using Trump-like labels on those he opposes. His campaign must pivot to a strong demonstration of why he is best qualified to confront Trump and his MAGA supporters head-on.
He has to demonstrate that he is not a watered-down, Canadian version of Donald Trump, which, if they didn’t before, most Canadians will now firmly reject. He must defend Canada as a strong, independent, sovereign country and not one that is broken. And it is he who must warn Trump, his sidekick Musk, and his MAGA cohorts to stay the hell out of Canada’s election.
The federal election, when it comes, is now going to be a horse race. But it must be a race where there is a clear winner. At this point in our history, Canada cannot afford a minority government. Seldom before have we needed a strong government with a clear mandate and not a government that has to prostitute itself or second guess every decision in order to remain in power.
Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre are strong candidates. They both have their strengths, and they have vastly different perspectives on the future of Canada.
A vigorous election campaign will give Canadians an opportunity to look more closely at both individuals and assess who can best lead this country through one of its darkest times and come out the other end with a stronger and more prosperous Canada, standing on its own feet and being envied once again, as one of the best places in the world to live.
The people of Canada have a choice to make. It will not be easy. Neither the Conservative or Liberal Parties nor their leaders should be underestimated. This election campaign must determine who can do the best job for Canada under serious present circumstances, and the elbows will be up.
It is a whole new ball game and it has never been more important to get it right.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Maybe it’s time for Liberals and Conservatives to work together. Dealing with Trump is a national crisis and, as in the past, liberals and conservatives have worked together despite political differences, ie to patriate the Constitution and introduce the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and NAFTA under Jean Chretien (Liberal) and Brian Mulroney (Progressive Conservative), where both parties supported trade expansion despite initial opposition. We can do this by educating ourselves and voting for the person best equipped to help Canada.
A couple of months ago, Mr. Poilievre was wanting Trudeau gone. Wanting to “Axe the tax”. Wanting an election to bring down the government. Well he has got 2 out of 3 with the third in the offing. But the party under his leadership has gone from a pretty fair lead to beginning to notice a bit of dust. Let’s say it’s neck’n’neck.
It will now have to be an all out program of character assassination directed at PM Carney. Because they have nothing else. There was never a program of policy announced by the PC. But there was Mr. Poilievre at a mike crying out that his ideas were being stolen. How can we know?
And it’s a sad state when there is not a single PC member who even suggested that there is anything wrong. But from the way the Liberals rebounded after a new leader was chosen must be a pretty good clue that the populace is not enthralled with this bitter man. Is there none among them that feel they may be being lead up to a door that will be closed to them.
If the PC lose the election, it will be the end of Mr. Poilievre in my opinion. Who would want to take another chance on his ‘leadership’? And maybe the end of some other peoples aspirations as well. Time will tell.
Just a reaffirmation that you better be careful what you wish for.
Well Mr. Mackenzie, your article has garnered much input. Though very late to the conversation, I would like to suggest that PP’s “Boots not Suits” slogan (we can always count on Mr. Slogan Man for something new in populist rhetoric at election time = BnS) may not bode well.
Like “bone spurs” Donald who I doubt has ever been grocery shopping in the last few decades, I doubt PP has done military service or hung dry wall (just ask Charlie Angus). Correct me if I am wrong about PP and military services.
When dealing with an unstable madman the approaches and strategies can be up for debate (I suggest more psychiatrists weigh in on this one). PP has taken plenty of talking points from The Donald (and the GOP) in campaigning. I suggest that has always been the plan and show his true colours.
So, identifying with the military, common working/labourer man persona (“boots”), just doesn’t hold much credibility for me. No climate change policy and political will for the same only results in my second shoe to drop.
My apologies for multiple mixed metaphors. Thanks for reading.
When asked a year or two ago if he had any advice for Trudeau and his falling support, Carney said “Going to a central banker for political advice is never a good idea”
Mr. Wolfe, you are being disingeneous here. Tony Clement was Minister of Health, Minister of Industry, and President of the Treasury Board across the nine year Stephen Harper government. His achievements, especially in securing funding for this area, are significantly greater than that of Andy Mitchell. The Canada Summit Centre and Flag Park are both fine symbols of his legacy.
Scott will make a fine minister in the coming Poilievre government.
“Who has the leadership skills to accomplish that?” Referring to Canada being Canada and dealing with ‘the donald’. A pretty serious task. So who ya’ gonna call?
You would think that Poilievre would have formulated a bit of a plan other than just berating and antagonising Trudeau who was on his way out. Having a 20 point lead in the polls and letting it bleed away in a matter of months, doesn’t make sense to me. Just a feeling but it doesn’t seem like planning or leadership was involved. But then I was never happy with his ankle biter attitude and bully tactics from the get go.
Carne is a bit of an unknown quantity. No real ‘political training’ but who really comes with that? Although what lays ahead will likely be a test for the man. As it could be a test for either man.
I do wonder though, why it’s so important for there to be a majority government. I can understand that the party with that majority can dictate policy. But we’ve had a good number of majorities of both stripes who managed to screw things up, both federally and provincially. And do a real great job of it. Majorities seem to self destruct.
So Anjali mudra people. Make a choice. The winner could be with us through some tough years.
Murray, your information regarding Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) is not accurate. First, Carney was indeed Chair of BAM, not Vice Chair. The BAM board decision last fall to move their HQ to NY was unanimous, so Carney supported it. His claim that the board decision came after he had stepped down was not true. Second, BAM purchased the 73% of their shares held by Brookfield Corp early last month, so they are publicly owned now.
There are other examples where Carney has been misleading or outright wrong, including claiming “we (Canada) supply almost all their semiconductors”,re US imports, which is of course non-sense. He also claimed that he “managed economic crises” and ” built strong economies”, which is misleading at best. A central bank governor’s job is to set interest rates and print money, not build economies or manage economic crises.
He has had extensive board positions and no doubt holds significant financial assets. He should ensure those assets are disclosed publicly before the election. If he has nothing to hide, that shouldn’t be a problem.
I encourage people to look very closely and check him for accuracy and believability. He claims he is not a politican, but he appears to be learning quickly..
Well said Walter Wolfe; I couldn’t agree more!
Thank you God unto all things.
It is a good thing we are able to express views and opinions freely here.
Quoting the above comment “He must defend Canada as a strong, independent, sovereign country and not one that is broken.”
Do please view the recent oath ceremony in Ottawa for the top Canadian position: Prime Minister. This performed by a newly unelected liberal leadership winner, (declared from 150k total voter result?) who now occupies the seat of Prime Minister. In taking that established oath, the choice of word used was to ‘swear’ BUT it was not accompanied at end with ‘so help me God’, as required. Canadians should ask the reason de’terre: As it relates to ‘one that is broken.’
The latter would describe a number of real Canadian variables and facts: lowest GDP in western world, 0.05%, which translates to record unemployment, environmental regulations that stymy growth, investment, and bring innovation et al, to absolute 0.
“True north strong and free.” From what, Canadians ask? This may be the better question to answer now!
In Canada’s anthem we sing; “God keep our land”
Rarely in Canadian history are we presented with such a clear choice in a federal election during a time of crisis, as we are now.
Mark Carney is a Harvard and Oxford educated economist, former Bank of Canada, Bank of England governor and successful business person. He has fallen in our lap when we need him most. If you watched the news conference from London yesterday you saw a masterclass in how to clearly articulate the issues, present solutions and make Canada’s case without slogans and childish name calling. He looks like the statesman he is. He played a significant role in guiding Canada through the 2008 financial crisis, leaving us largely unscathed. He is a clear climate defender and understands what Canadas role is in the future.
Mr Poilievre on the other hand has a 20 year career in the House of Commons with no legislative accomplishments, is currently under a compliance agreement with elections Canada and still refuses to get a security clearance. He is supported by no less the Donald Trump and Elon Musk. He offers no ideas on climate other than to totally cave in to major polluters. He is out of his league in this difficult time. His petulant personality doesn’t serve him well.
Parry Sound Muskoka has been relegated to the back benches and opposition for decades with the notable exception of Andy Mitchell’s, (L) 1993 – 2006, various cabinet positions.
We have a chance to change that this election.
Hugh, we are definitely in uncharted waters and dangerous ones at that. I’ve been a long time conservative but feel the need for a proven, qualified hand on the tiller. That would be Mark Carney, he’s light years beyond Pollievre in his real world experience and a guy with most every leader in the world on speed dial.
It should be noted that your piece however repeats conservative misinformation regarding Brookfields move to the US. First, it was Brookfield Asset Management that moved. They are only 25% public…the remainder is owned by Brookfield Corporation, the parent company, which still has its head offices in Toronto at Brookfield Place. Second, Carney did not make that decision, it was a board decision of which he was vice chairman. His boss there, Bruce Flatt, was the other but regardless, they each only had one vote and I expect Bruce’s carried more weight.
John Davis: Prime Minister Mark Carney worked for Goldman-Sach’s NOT “the Russians” which was before his employment with the Bank of Canada in 1998.
The biggest concern about Poilievre is that his base is mainly in Alberta and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan, and that politics in those provinces are strongly influenced and funded by the same 900 selfish US-based giant oil and gas companies that paid for Trump’s election. They also financed and promoted the Alberta-based Truckers Convoy that Poilievre endorsed.
These two facts should be obvious to anyone paying attention: #1. Climate Change is very real, and is rapidly and increasingly destructive and costly, and is caused mainly by 100 years of burning carbon-based fuels. #2. Oil and gas are finite resources that will take 20 to 30 years to replace if we start now and move very aggressively. If we don’t do that, we will be caught with a massive global energy shortage on top of climate change.
Those same 900 selfish US-based oil companies don’t give a hoot about any of that or about our kids and grandkids, as long as their kid’s have enough money to escape to some non-existent refuge. So, neither can Poilievre. He is trapped. Carney has a responsible and realistic plan for a prosperous and modern economy based on both “clean energy as soon as possible AND conventional energy during the energy transition”. Carney’s plan is consistent with forward thinking European and Asian governments and is entirely possible. He has already put our most capable and experienced ministers in the right place to execute that responsible plan. Our kids will be very grateful that Carney came along just in the nick of time. The US will resume that kind of plan as soon as they can end this fatal experiment with Trump.
This is indeed a whole new ballgame. The liberals have changed pitchers, but they still have the same team backing him up. (think about that) First pitch Carney throws a change up by cutting the consumer carbon tax or so we think. But everyone knows he will apply carbon tax to industry that will pass the cost on to you and me. During his warm up in the bull pen I noticed he might have been working with a player from the other team. Search BAM invests in companies owned by Elon Musk. BAM lobbied the government for money (lots of it) while Carney was an advisor to the liberal party, not the liberal government so it was not considered unethical. Moving Brookfield’s head office to the states might just be the tip of the iceberg. We need to know a lot more about Mark Carney before we vote. So do your homework folks.
I dont understand people. They dont think for themselves. Liberal people are complaing and bad mouthing Pierre Conservstives. Conservatives have had absolutely no way to pass a bill or change anything. Conservatives never had enough seats to pass a fart never mind a bill. Liberals on the other hand are responsible for the chaos we are trying to live in now. No help for vets no help for natives no oil line no help for our homeless and hungry but a couple of years ago liberals made an ice rink for a ton of money that no one could skate on. Liberals lined their pockets with tax payers money and gave billions away to other countries. Liberals let in millions of immigrants and refugees but they are homeless and hungry like Canadians. WHAT IS ONE THING LIBERALS DID THAT HELPED CANADA AND CANADIANS?? ?
Carney’s assist in moving Brookfield to NYC was probably a good business decision for Brookfield and what Carney was being paid for and he apparently fulfilled his responsibility as he should. I cannot see how this needs to reflect on his potential Prime Minister position. Hopefully if he wins he will bring the same diligence to our country.
Very thoughful reflection, Hugh. It seems to me while others have raised the question of PP’s lack of experience outside poliics, I would emphasize not on;y his nasty persona and his use of pejorative nicknames a la Trump but his policies that are definitely not conservative. They are radical right, such as destoying the CBC would be the end of an institution which many Canadians rely on. He has also voted against many programs which help ordinary Canadians such as pharmacare and dental care, which some of us, children and seniors already are using. I would suggest his plans to cut taxes and simultaneously cut government services will harm Canadians. He has an authoritarian tendency, which has been reflected in his tight control of the Conservative caucus.
This letter was sent to the editor of the Toronto Star and the Calgary Sun
Liberal Majority Government-Spring Election 2025
Dear Pierre Poilievre
I have just rewatched your interview with Jordan Peterson, ” Peterson sits down with Canadian member of Parliament Pierre Poilievre (and likely the next Prime Minister)”, where at the 61-62 minute mark you stated Canada is a ” Hellscape ” “ie Canada is Broken”. Not So!
Over the last two or more years. I have heard and seen nothing positive and respectful from you. From my perspective, all that I have seen from you is a stream of attacks, and insults against other politicians ( Sellout Singh) or ( Carbon-tax Carney ) and the media . You had photo ops with the Freedom Convoy crowd that carried “F–K Trudeau flags, Confederate flags, and even Nazi Swastika flags .Your approach is straight out of Trump’s playbook .You are a career politician with absolutely no real world experience , unlike the Liberal PM Mark Carney, to take on President Trump and the economic war ( tariffs ) that will encompass Canada next week and the years to come.
For the 2nd time in my life I will vote Liberal to say goodbye to you , a full time politician who has only fed himself at the public trough.
Hello liberal majority Government in this Spring election.
John Barltrop
Markham Ontario
Perhaps this time we need to vote for the country, not the party
Politics as a “blood-sport”, a “ball game” and snappy slogans, blaming and farming rage, and Andrew Tumilty’s communications strategic narratives with heroes, victims and villains. It is all exhausting and is unrelated to the daily problems and worries about jobs and real affordability challenges, so no wonder people do not bother to vote. The American President has our attention with his intention to erase the “artificial line” that is our border so I hope we can do more than engage in the usual political gamesmanship.
Thanks for your thoughts as always Hugh. I agree with much of what you have stated, especially around Pierre Poilievre’s abiltiies. He is a career politician with little to no actual real life business experience. He has done almost nothing except whine about Trudeau for years. He rarely presents any concrete plans for what he would like to do if he actually gained power. How can there be any competition? Presented with the single question: “who is best to deal with Trump”, how could anyone looking at Carney and Poilievre’s resumes choose Poilievre? Carney has only been the PM for a few days and he is already proving himself. His resume shows us that Carney is exactly who we need right now. I was at question period when Poilievre was kicked out and all the conservative MPs (some reluctantly) walked off the floor. I would be ashamed to have him as our PM.
Well said John K. Davis. I have come to the realization that Canadians will have to chew thru the phony antics of both Liberals and Conservatives until they come to the realization neither have their best interests at heart. Sad but true, and perhaps best for all of us in the long run as people have to come to grips with what it takes to be a real leader with true ethics. The only person who IMO has the most common sense ideas is Maxime Bernier, leader of the CPP currently a 3rd or 4th place party. He left the Conservative Party in disgust back in 2018 to form the Peoples Party of Canada https://www.peoplespartyofcanada.ca/about#about-our-party but is almost totally ignored by MSM and few are yet even aware of its or his existence. While we wait perhaps spend a bit of time looking at what Maxime offers and his past experience.
PP is a career politician who has never worked a day outside of politics. He doesn’t have a clue.
Then we have the problem of Muskoka always voring PC no matter who runs. We are like Americans. Born Republican or Democrat. Always Republican or Democrat. We can’t take the time to educate ourselves on what party will be the best to govern. Get the blinders off Muskoka.
A very great leader once said “there is nothing to fear but fear itself”. I know it is true that Trump has Canadians running around imitating Chicken Little by saying”the sky is falling, the sky is falling.
The issues that Canadians were concerned about prior to Trump have not gone away, even if Carney says” he has cancelled the carbon tax. We can forgive him for taking this page out of Trump’s first day on the job this time, after all I guess he doesn’t understand how changing the law requires, all three of the parliament processes it must go through.
Perhaps his time working for the Russian’s with their bond issues has him a little confused? You would have thought that Canada’s media would have questioned Carney ‘s false statements about the carbon tax being axed, Perhaps all their parliamentary experts didn’t know this wasn’t right.
Which brings to mind that parliament never really dealt with foreign election interference. Liberals prorogued parliament before this issue was resolved.
The electorate needs to do some research on their own about the leaders, before they buy a pig in a poke.
The fact that cancelling the carbon tax is false , gives us all a little look into what we can expect as the election is called. It will be quick our New Prime Minister will want the election to finished before this illusional smoke the Liberals are creating dissipates.
Finally remember the caucus that was a big part of this mess may have changed seats but they are still as incompetent as they were just three months ago, and they will still treat the western provinces with complete disrespect even when they say they consider all Canadians on the same team. The great part is the west will suck it up, they are truly Canadians.
Following both candidates with close attention on how they will respond to Trump’s threats, “ I will destroy Canada.” “ Canada could keep its anthem.”, ad nauseam ..