Sometimes I wonder if we are part ostrich because, at times, we do have a penchant to stick our heads in the sand.
In recent days, mainstream and social media have dined out on stories about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau letting his hair down in London before the Queen’s funeral, (something I think she would have approved of), about the Governor General of Canada’s official trip to the Middle East where beef wellington and a good deal of bubbly-pop was consumed along the way, and about the fact that the Ford Government in Ontario posted a surplus last year instead of a previously stated deficit. (Man, the world is upside down when that becomes an issue.)
Meanwhile, in the real world, there are some pretty serious things going on and as we sweat the small stuff, I do wonder how much attention we are paying to really serious, potentially life-threatening issues.
The war in Ukraine took a serious turn this week. The Russians are not winning their unprovoked war there at the moment. Vladimir Putin is like a cornered rat and there is little that is more dangerous than that. And so, he is acting like one, calling up 300,000 more troops, taking personal control of his armed forces, once again threatening a nuclear response, and holding sham referendums in parts of Ukraine he now controls.
The stakes have risen substantively this week. Putin is facing unrest in Russia and a lack of success in Ukraine. When tensions are highest, that is when despots like Putin are most dangerous. They become unhinged. It becomes harder to predict what will happen.
Over the past seven months, most western countries have been cautious in their support of Ukraine against Russia. Provoking Putin into a wider war is something to be avoided if at all possible.
On the other hand, Putin’s aggression, his doubling down, and his scorched earth antics cannot be allowed to escalate without it inevitably leading to that much wider conflict. If he wins in Ukraine, where does he go next? One can hope for a revolt inside Russia and there are early signs of unrest there, but one cannot count on it.
Notwithstanding the risks, countries, including Canada, who understand the historic significance of appeasement and hesitation in the name of caution and in the face of unprovoked aggression, need to up their game in Ukraine, both diplomatically and militarily and they need to do it now.
Bob Rae, Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations, said it best this week when acknowledging that for him it might be a career-limiting move, he urged Canada to change its current policy and say “Yes” to Ukraine’s latest request for weapons to fight the Russian invasion. I think he is right. In my view, every step that can be taken to stop this war where it is now should be taken.
Many people, especially on this side of the pond, may see the war in Ukraine as something that is not our fight, and therefore something we need not be concerned about. By itself, while not helpful to world order and the balance of power, there may be some truth in that.
However, in addition to Ukraine, there are enough hotspots currently on our planet that like during the Second World War, common interests and common ambitions prevail, alliances form and before you know it, you have a global conflict. There is the threat of further Russian domination in Europe, concerns about China and Taiwan, North and South Korea, conflict in the Middle East, including now the real potential for civil unrest in Iran, and so on.
There is, in my view, a strong argument to be made that we are sitting on a global tinderbox today, greater than anything we have seen since World War Two and with far more serious potential consequences, because of the differences in weaponry and technology between then and now.
The question then becomes, what do we do about this? I wish I had the answer.
What I do know, however, is that we cannot ignore what is happening in the world today, not only the real and potential military conflicts, but also the instability in many nations of the world, including some not too far from home!
An important step I believe is to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. One would think the United Nations could do this but as long as aggressive nations, or for that matter any nation, has a veto over that entire body, then the United Nations is impotent. In terms of world order and world peace, it is a waste of time under those circumstances. United Nations forces should be in Ukraine right now, stopping the Russians. But of course, we know, that is not going to happen.
And so, it will be up to countries like those in the European Union, Great Britain, the United States, and yes Canada, and perhaps with the right strategy, maybe even China, to bring both diplomatic and military resources to bear to force an end to this conflict, and not just watch it linger on until there are catastrophic results.
To me, in Canada and globally, this is a major issue of our time, needing immediate attention before it escalates. Forget the small stuff. This is what is worth sweating about.
I for one don’t give a tinker’s damn about Justin Trudeau making happy in a London Bar. But I do care deeply about this.
Hugh Mackenzie.
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Mr Holland
I’m sorry to inform you that the United Nations has tried for years to get Ukraine to join knowing full well that Russia would not approve. The Russians have always insisted on maintaining a demilitarized zone after the nuclear arms treaty was signed. Would you want nuclear missiles on your border ?
Biden has been weak and indecisive. When do you withdraw from a country after and extended conflict which has not been resolved. And in doing so you leave the very people you fought with a military arsenal worth millions of dollars .And thanks to Trudeau and Biden’s quick departure many of our allies were left there to face the enemy alone. A total betrayal of all those poor innocent people. A callous disregard for human life in my opinion. Now the enemy is well armed so that it can maintain control over the poor people who are now stuck there under this brutal oppressive regime .
Is this the type of leadership you are referring to by chance Mr Holland?
ps. Inflation was not out of control and the stock market wasn’t in a tail spin under Trump’s leadership.
You were making more money then to Mr Holland and that was not a coincidence.
Dave Wilkin, what weakness and confusion by the Biden admin are you talking about? Biden has been consistent from the beginning of the attack on Ukraine. Let’s not forget it was Trump who weakened US relationships with all but the autocrats by insulting just about every world leader, and it was Trump who spooked Putin by relentlessly pushing all NATO members to up their contributions to NATO. That gave Putin license to do what he always wanted to do anyway.
Hugh Holland, war is unpredictable. Putin is even less predictable and has a history of not backing down, making this situation more volatile than most others. Recently we saw a Russian gas pipeline sabotage act, which further raises tensions and stakes. A use of nucs or other WMD’s by Putin is not impossible.
He did over estimated his conventional military superiority and has paid a heavy price for that mistake. He won’t make the same mistake again. He won’t attack NATO countries, but Ukraine joining NATO has been a red line for him and Russia for decades. Russia will never let it happen.
This war was avoidable, had NATO not opened the door to Ukraine membership, multiple times, which was followed by Europe’s energy debacle, internal divisions and foreign policy weakness and confusion exhibited by the Biden administration.
Ending the war now with a negotiated settlement doesn’t mean giving in to Putin. He has already lost a lot, but Ukraine even more and increasingly the world as inflation ravages economies and a global recession looms. Europe now needs to pivot and make many long-term structural changes, including strengthening their eastern defenses, becoming energy secure (quickly), and reversing their de-industrialization and dependency on Asia/China for so much.
Comparisons to WWII and Chamberlain appeasing Hitler are not relevant here at all. It’s an entirely different situation.
Dave Wilkin, what precedent does it set to just let Putin have his evil way? Remember Chamberlain? Which country will be next? It is a very delicate situation and the best advice I have seen yet is to avoid any kneejerk reaction but to proceed slowly but surely to continue backing Putin further into a corner until his own people rebel, which has already started. A kneejerk reaction from one side risks a kneejerk reaction from the other.
Travis, I agree with everything you said about listening and compromise, but you and I are not politicians. That takes real statemen with real courage and that is very rare except perhaps during wartime. When was the last time we saw that happen. Ever since question period was televised, they are all playing to their base back home. If you recall, during the worst of Covid, MPs couldn’t even agree on a meeting format, so the government had to impose a format. The best example we have seen lately is the cooperation between Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau on most Covid mandates. That was very refreshing.
Hugh, we all should be very worried. Europe’s economy is entering recession as their energy crisis deepens, and it’s spreading globally. Putin is annexing Eastern Ukraine and threatens to use nucs to defend the claim. Is he bluffing?
The West’s response, beyond condemnation, is to send even more and more powerful weapons to Ukraine. It’s bonkers, a recipe for disaster beyond words. Russia will not give up and leave now, allowing a militarized Ukraine’s certain fall into the EU, or worse for Russia, NATO. Too much at stake, given the long, complex history. China lurks ominously in the background, supporting Putin.
Hoping Putin is taken out is a risky gamble. The war must end now, before things deteriorate any further, meaning concessions are a reality. The West nievely believes Ukraine will prevail. This is really a proxy war with Russia, and their will be no winners, only losers.
Hugh Holland I may not be intellectual enough to understand your point. Do you mean by “working together with and listening to “ just doing what they are told without question because that doesn’t seem like a very good way to come up with the best public policy. What I had meant is that we should all be open minded about ideas from all parties and test those ideas on merit to come up with the best collaborative solutions. Just because you don’t like someone doesn’t mean they can’t have a good idea and if people truly want solutions you need to keep an open mind and be able to take criticism of ones own ideas. I think very few in our political landscape are willing to abandon their team for the greater good but I think we should give them all a voice and judge them on policy instead of calling them names. Just a thought and thanks for listening
Travis Medland. Perhaps Pierre Poilievre will start “working together with and listening to” the duly elected government of the day? As you say, a good idea is a good idea, even if it comes from the elected government.
David Caswell, you have a very objective perspective and I will be the first to say I don’t have a horse in the race therefore am open minded to all of our options like your comment suggests you may be. If we are serious about dealing with these serious issues we do need a serious leader. (Probably many grammar mistakes in that last sentence). Whoever that might be. If we are going to move forward we need to stop the partisanship and likening everything we don’t like to Trump. A good idea and strategy is just that, regardless of where it comes from and working together by actually listening to each other’s ideas will give us better solutions. I for one would like to hear an actual coherent answer and plan from our leaders and see them work together taking the best pieces from each for a solution rather than the current partisan nonsense.
David Caswell: Do you know whether Poilievre can sing or not? It does seem to be a strange method by which to judge if a person is/will be a serious leader.
Attila the Hun recruited warriors with comments like, ” Let’s go visit Constantinople. I’m serious!”
Charles Ponzi encouraged people to invest: “you’ll get your money back and more. Seriously”
Hannibal Lecter may have calmed people’s fears with “You’ll love my cooking. For sure!”
‘Billy the Kid’ said “I’ll make you famous.”
Bernie Madoff was into serious money.
They simply asked for the opportunity to show what they could do. Like our politicians. We have no way of knowing how it will all turn out. After the first term, then we can judge them on their performance.
We pay our money and take our chances.
Over the last few years, I think we are getting short-changed.
Seriously.
Dave Caswell, different leaders are serious about different values. While he pretends to be Mr. Freedom, don’t be misled. Poilievre, like Putin and Trump is just the opposite. Their pugnacious nature and misguided actions show they are most serious about having unfettered control and benefitting their favored segments of society. No thanks. Trudeau, while not perfect, is more open, more generous of spirit, and more serious about supporting humanitarian values and equality of opportunity for all. And Trudeau’s results are as good as any in the G7 and G20 economies.
Russia reformed its economy for the benefit of Putin, 114 senior political figures, and 96 oligarchs. Trump didn’t start the inequality of America, but he certainly pushed it forward while loudly claiming to do the opposite. China, while certainly not perfect, reformed its economy to the benefit of hundreds of millions of its people who now live a decent life. That is ultimately much more important and long lasting.
Hugh at this time Canada needs a serious leader. Trudeau with his past actions and what has surfaced in London has proven he is not a serious leader. Wether you like it or not Poillevre is a serious individual. This may not be the time to discount him.
This is a most important argument.