Hugh Mackenzie
Huntsville Doppler
I try to steer away from writing about the same subject two weeks in a row, but I don’t always succeed. This is one of those weeks.
Nine days ago, President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of a highly connected Iranian General with known terrorist capabilities. Whether or not it was the right thing to do is at this point, although highly controversial, somewhat academic. It has happened. People will debate the legality, the appropriateness and the actual incentive for this for years to come. It won’t change a thing.
A few days later, Iran retaliated. Most people and most governments knew that they would. Two American military bases in Iraq were attacked by the Iranians. It appeared to be a measured response and one cannot help but wonder if it was prearranged through diplomatic channels, as the actual damage was minimal, without a single death. It looked like everyone, on both sides, were prepared to lower the temperature in an attempt to prevent an escalation of hostilities.
Then all Hell broke loose.
On January 8, Flight PS752, bound for Ukraine, was blown out of the sky very shortly after it left the Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport. One hundred and seventy-six people were killed, 57 of whom were Canadian citizens and another 81 who were living in Canada, many of them international students.
There is little, if any, doubt that the Iranians shot this plane down. At first, they admitted it, saying that it happened “unintentionally”, and later denied they had anything to do with it and cited the cause as human error. I have no idea what their current position is, and I really don’t give a damn.
Unless the video that captured this attack is fake, Flight PS752 was shot down by a missile and the only ones flying around the Middle East at the time were Iranian. It is much too easy to call it an accident and it is an insult to the dead and their families to call these victims collateral damage. If the loss of this plane was not an act of war, it was clearly the result of war-like measures and people need to be held accountable for that.
Let’s start with Donald Trump. Is he directly responsible for the loss of so many lives that were taken when this plane was destroyed? No. Is he indirectly responsible? Probably so. In my view, it is very unlikely that this plane, heading to Ukraine, would have been shot out of the sky had Qassem Soleimani not been killed by the Americans a few days earlier. Locked and loaded missiles do not fly around Tehran on a routine basis.
Consequently, whether or not his ardent supporters want to acknowledge it, Donald Trump played a role in the death of 176 innocent individuals. That cannot be dismissed as collateral damage. It is a tragedy that should never have happened, and everyone involved has blood on their hands. Donald Trump has to live with that and the rest of us should never forget it.
As for the Iranian Government and the military they control, they must stop messing with indisputable facts and take primary responsibility for this tragedy. We will likely never know for sure if this was an act of terrorism camouflaged as something else in order to escape retaliation. Iran, after all, is known as a terrorist state. I must admit some surprise at how much of the world seems ready to write this off as an unfortunate accident. What we do know for certain, however, is that an Iranian missile, purchased from Russia, shot this plane down. That in itself is inexcusable under any and all circumstances and calls for real accountability and effective sanctions.
Canada has been particularly hit by the tragedy of Flight PS752. Here is what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said:
“I am, of course, outraged and furious that families across this country that are grieving their loved ones, that the Iranian-Canadian community is suffering so greatly, that all Canadians are shocked and appalled by this senseless loss of life.”
That was an appropriate and measured response in my view. With so many people living in Canada dying on that flight, it also puts an increased burden on President Trump to provide real evidence that there was clear and present danger to Americans when a decision was made to assassinate Qassem Soleimani, the event that started all of this. The Prime Minister should insist on this, just as he insists on full accountability from Iran. Canadians deserve no less.
On a closing note, I also am somewhat surprised that although the Prime Minister notes the shock of all Canadians for this tragedy, there is not a lot of evidence of this on social media. Of course, there is some, but to me it does not meet the level of many other concerns raised on social media that fall far below the reality and implications of this unnecessary tragedy. I can think of few instances in recent decades where so many citizens and people living in Canada have been senselessly wiped out. My hope against hope is that a lack of apparent outrage and indifference is not because the vast majority of these people are of Iranian decent. They are still Canadian citizens or people who have chosen to live, work and study here.
To care less about them because of their heritage or to be less angry and demanding for accountability and retribution when Canada has every right and indeed a heavy responsibility to do so would be perhaps the greatest tragedy of all.
Please tell me it ain’t so.
Hugh Mackenzie
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Maybe our destiny is bleak. But there are hopeful signs. World population growth is slowing, likely headed to zero by the century’s end. This is happening because of the rapid rise of the middle-class now well underway in the developing countries, leading to declining fertility rates. (clearly visible in developed countries, but now also visible in China).
The challenge remains this rapidly rising middle-class is fueled by (relatively) cheap carbon-energy. If new/better technology enabling a transition to cleaner, sustainable, affordable energy over time doesn’t happen more quickly, and developed countries were successful in restricting access to the energy they need, it stops their rise into the middle-class, leading to more inequality and population growth. (& more conflict and suffering). Much more likely however is developing countries just ignore us and continue burning carbon energy they need support their growth and development (after all, they control 85% of known world carbon-energy reserves).
Yet, I don’t see mass extinction as our destiny. I believe in the remarkable resilience & creativity of humans (despite our genetic quirks and tendencies to screw up). I also don’t see the apocalyptic or bleak dystopian future worlds as some do. I see us fumbling through and eventually getting enough right. This likely includes more global cooperation, investments in (helpful) technology & innovation and some structural economic/social changes leading to less growth & consumption dependence … plus a few good breaks along the way like viable nuclear fusion energy.
I certainly don’t see the rise of some kind of new global world government order taking over, as a few fringe groups out there seem to predict.
When the air is hard to breath. When there is more plastic in the sea than fish. After we extinct another million or so species. When there is not enough food for us all to eat and when the sea level rises about 300 feet (which it will ultimately do), then Hugh’s estimate of 60 million might look like a bit of an underestimate.
The really sad thing is that if there was no oil under the middle East, most likely none of us would be able to put a finger on any of these countries on a map.
It doesn’t much matter your religion and the mightiest planes and ships will not make much difference either as when we “cook” do to climate change, we shall all cook together, regardless of our military goals.
Sad! You would think we would be collectively smarter than this.
Very well stated Dave on this post I have to agree completely with you. Now all we have to do is figure out just how to fix everything.
So true Hugh Holland with regard to the type of leadership qualities required in today’s destabilizing world, in the face of the global challenges of climate change, the real potential for nuclear war – and I would add, the ever-increasing reality of wealth inequality.
The Marshall Plan (1948-52) while not totally perfect and altruistic, certainly was significant in stabilizing the political and economic systems of the devastated countries of Western Europe in the face of Soviet aggression in Eastern Europe and beyond during the Cold War. Add to this, the formation of NATO in 1949 of which Canada was one of the original twelve members.
In the immediate post-1945 era, we learned from the grievous mistakes of the vindictive 1919 settlement with the devastating terms and ‘war guilt’ clause of the Treaty of Versailles imposed upon a defeated Germany, which most historians argue sowed the seeds for the horrific Second Great War of the 20th century – lest we forget!
Today, we must be cognizant of the ‘common good’ of our grandchildren and beyond, whether they live in Iran, the United States, Canada, or elsewhere.
Thanks, Dave: apparently there was a typo on Twitter. But, as you say, even 3500 seems excessive. I don’t think that Iran has the cojones to attack Israel; but the willingness of the US to send more troops (and Israel’s constant readiness) should deter even that faint chance.
Rob, that would be 3,500, not 35,000 troops recently added by Trump. That said, with 60K+ US military personnel in the region already, it’s not clear why they would need another 3,500. Perhaps to send another message to Iran that the US takes their threats seriously (but won’t back down)?
I post this (lengthy) comment so readers may better understand how I approach most of my articles/comments. First, like all people, I would love to see a world free of war, poverty, hunger, nuclear weapons and pollution. Indeed, the world would be better off without all who resort to atrocities or war to achieve ends, be it for power, security, religion, ideology, or selfish national interests. Equating Donald Trump to global terrorists with the blood of 10,000’s on their hands, like Soleimani, is over the top. I won’t comment further on that.
My writings focus on better understanding the world as it is, suggesting we learn from past mistakes/failures, current realities, to chart better ways forward, Canada focused. I focus on things we can impact, while trying to avoid ideology. I certainly do not profess to know how to fix the worlds problems.
Country leaders (elected or otherwise) place their nation’s interests ahead of others, regardless of system of governance. History shows if they don’t, they don’t last long, and too often their people lose out at the hands of ones that do. Short of a world government (that would be less accountable and more prone to corruption) it isn’t changing. To the contrary, world institutions today are less trusted and seen as ineffective by many.
Regarding Iran/Middle East, the region has been plagued with war (from religious/sectarian differences) for 1000’s of years. The vast oil/gas deposits, (which builds modern economies) only heightens conflict as world powers fight over it. Going forward, we should have learned you can’t force our systems, governance, morals, values etc. on their people because we think we know what is best for them. Recently Presidents Bush and Obama both tried, and both failed badly. It resulted in more, not less war and suffering. We should learn from their mistakes.
Regarding Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, as irrational as it seems, their current leaders see it justified and necessary for Iran’s long-term survival in perceive and real risks/threats all around them. But if they were to succeed, the result would be catastrophic, given the history and instability of the region, so it must not happen.
Our genes seemed programmed to lead to conflict – self-preservation, reproduction, family/tribe first, competitive instincts etc. It’s just the way we are. We need to manage it best we can since we can’t change it.
There is strong evidence that Trump planned this particular assassination some 7 months ago. But with the election now, at least, on the distant horizon; what better time to trump(et) his contrast with the Dems (Obama)? I can’t lend any credence to the theory that downing a commercial aircraft was an act of terrorism, disguised as incompetence; due to the lack of American lives lost (not to mention all the Iranians who died).
As for removing troops from the region (as was his election promise), another 35,000 have just been added to the powder keg. As Hugh avers, the President must definitely own his indirect guilt in this matter. Narcissist nonpareil that he is, no apology will ever be forthcoming; but he owes Canada that much.
I don’t blame the US people, as a majority of Americans who voted in the 2016 presidential election voted for Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump, and the election was systematically interfered with by Putin, as all US intelligence agencies agree and the Mueller investigation proved. They showed their opinion of him after two years of his awful term by giving the House of Representatives back to the Democratic Party conclusively in 2018.
.
I and others blame Trump for a lot of bad things happening in the world because he is making them happen. He is a criminal. That’s why he was impeached.
Thank you Mr. Holton for this information which was not widely posted
There is no lack of apparent outrage and indifference on social media at this time, possibly just a combination of shock, condolences, and respect for the grieving families and friends.
We do not know the entire story yet, and we may never know, but the comments viewed of sincere condolences on all social media are there. Rest in Peace to all who were lost and may the happy memories of family and friends soon overtake the sadness felt these days.
WOW HUGH .. stay focused! Your scare tactics and your ‘humble’ opinion ..”climate change will bring much more than the 60 million deaths of WW2″ … WOW! HUGH! WOW! and.. your comments about military and war history are really ‘absurd’! What would you wish for .. the ‘other’ side to have won WW2? … the ‘other’ side to have had the weapons and ‘will’ to continue their plans for world dominance? HUGH .. you can’t be serious? And ..what you say about current USA administration and the world’s past is an insult for ‘everyone’ who died in order for you to enjoy what you can say and do! WOW HUGH!
WOW! .. HUGH .. you seem to forget who suffered the most for what Soleimani did and what Soleimani was going to continuing to do! The impact and consequence of Soleimani’s past behavior, plans etc etc and more importantly his future ‘plans’ were directed right at the States.. HUGH .. you forgot how the world got in this mess and WHO was responsible for this mess! HINT .. the ‘guy’ before Trump! ..Your comment needs an adjustment .. “To care less about US citizens because of their heritage or to be less angry and demanding for accountability and retribution when USA has every ‘right’ and indeed a ‘heavy responsibility’ to do so would be perhaps the greatest tragedy of all.”
I’m inclined to agree with Mr Wilkin on this one. I am not blaming Trump at all for this tragedy, Iranian incompetence is actually a good way to describe it. From what I can determine, Trump would much rather be out of, and done with, the Middle East. It’s almost certain the Soleimani action was on the advice of the military.
As for those who feel the following outpouring of support inside Iran for the war criminal the US took out was legitimate, perhaps this piece from the Washington Post…a known anti Trump organization…will shed some light on the reality there. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/06/dont-believe-iranian-propaganda-about-mourning-soleimani/
Very well said!
Dave, there is not a single example in 3,000 years of history to show that strongman military tactics have won the hearts and minds of people enough to end the spiraling cycle of madness. There never will be. History shows that oppressed peoples continue to seek revenge, for decades and even for centuries. It is well documented that several Iranian and US leaders, including Soleimani and Trump, have been guilty of perpetuating the cycle of violence. Perhaps we can expect that from a nation that has been oppressed and dominated by others since oil was discovered there in 1908, but we should expect much better from the most privileged nation on earth.
It’s time for everyone to wake up. The Marshall plan after WW2 was a shining example that showed the world that winning hearts and minds can be done with understanding, empathy, respect, restraint, fairness, and cooperation. In a world of 8 billion people by 2025, these are the qualities of leadership needed to mitigate the world’s two biggest threats; nuclear war and climate change. These are the qualities of leadership that will provide hope for our grandchildren to have a civilized and livable future. There will be no place to hide from either climate change or nuclear war.
The US, China, and Russia will go morally and economically bankrupt trying to dominate each other. Both nuclear war and climate change will bring much more than the 60 million deaths of WW2. Just think how good the world could be if they would all just behave like their grandchildren’s lives depended on cooperation instead of conflict; because they do. Hope or hate? Its time to choose.
Perhaps Trump will try to draw down some US forces in Iraq, like he has done in Syria/Afghanistan, but it won’t happen quickly. The Shia dominated Iraq government, heavily influenced by Iranian backed proxies is too unstable, after violent protests recently forced out their Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi (allegedly Iran backed).
Pulling out quickly would likely lead to another collapse and takeover by Iranian backed Shia elites. That would almost certainly lead to yet another senseless civil war disaster, just like it did for Obama, first in Iraq, then in Syria (when he blinked as Iran proxies, with Russian military support kept Assad in power).
It could also lead to a direct Iranian controlled land bridge from Iran right into Syria/Lebanon, putting more hostile Iranian military and proxy forces on Israel’s door step. That would further destabilize an already messed up region, and could easily lead to war with Israel, dragging the US back in.
As for the US leaving the region entirely? (some 60,000+ military personnel spread across 30 some bases, mostly in Suni-dominated countries). Not going to happen. Three reasons, 1. Oil & gas. 2. Israel. 3. China/Russia. (see #1, as US shale/tight oil & gas likely in decline within a decade or two).
Or hopefully, the US will leave the region in which they are not welcome. Their presence has never brought anything but added violence and strife.
And as Trump himself said after the Syrian pullout, they have only been there to “take the oil”
Excellent comment, Dave.
I am still at a lose as to why everyone seems to want to blame Trump and the U.S. for every bad thing that happens in the world these days. Would some of these same people tell me what other country has done more to help other countries that were in crisis of some kind than the U.S. has over the years.
I’m not a lover of Trump or the U.S. on a lot of things but there sure as hell is no other country I would rather have looking after my back than the Americans. Maybe it’s because I still remember the second world war. That is forgotten by a lot of people.
If Americans were on that plane Trump would be tweeting quite differently .No empathy or compassion on his part….ever.
That’s something we’ll never know. To just look at Trump’s killing of the General is too simplistic. Iran killed an American soldier a few days before the American Embassy in Baghdad was attacked. These 2 attacks lead to the drone attack on the General.
Hugh, it is clear that had the US not taken out Soleimani, this tragedy would not have occurred. But, blaming Trump for it, as many are now doing is not right. It was Iranian incompetence that brought the plane down, not Trump.
The taking out of Soleimani must be seen in a broader context. There is no doubt Soleimani would have continued to direct war, enable acts of terror, destabilizing the entire region, and in particular threatening and attacking the US in the region. He was certainly involved in planning recent attacks on the US embassy, resources and their allies.
As I expressed in another Doppler comment on this topic, Soleimani was not just their top general, but arguably the worlds most powerful and dangerous terrorist-in-chief. Inside Iran, he commanded the bloody Quds Force, which has a history of brutality towards even Iran’s own people that the regime saw as threats. Outside of Iran, he oversaw the Iranian proxy terror organisations Hezbollah (in Lebanon), Houthis (in Yemen), Asaib Ahl al-Haq (in Iraq) and Shi’ite brigades in Afghanistan and Pakistan. These organizations collectively are responsible for countless atrocities and killings, which continues to this day. The Iranian proxies he had influence over reach far beyond the Middle-East, including into Columbia, Mexico, Peru, and El Salvador. But his worst legacy is undoubtedly in Syria. In the end, Assad remains in power, due in large part to Iran’s help. Soleimani was Iran’s lead commander in Iraq, and he supported and advised Assad. The tragic outcomes are all too well known – over half a million Syrians brutally murdered, bombed, tortured, gassed or just disappeared, in what may be one of the worst genocides in recent history. Their blood is on Soleimani’s hands too.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the 2015 JCPOA failed to change Iran’s behavior. It only temporarily capped/reduced their uranium enrichment, but then provided them with funds they spent on their military, spread of regional sectarian violence/instability, ballistic missiles (nuclear capable) and nuclear research. It didn’t go to help their people or their economy, or to foster moderation, as hoped.
40 years of chants ‘death to America, death to Israel’ remains the regime’s propaganda message to its people. If Iran continues on its current path (most notably, enrichment again) war with the US (and likely Israel too) will become inevitable. It will be a very short one, as the US would flatten the Iranian defense system and then their nuclear related facilities in hours. The losses and following chaos would be terrible.
Just maybe the recent tragic events will cause Iran leadership to pause , rethink and shift course before its too late.
Many were academics and researchers and graduate students. Twitter is the norm for social media usage among academics. There were a lot of very moving tributes.
https://twitter.com/faisal_moola/status/1214919525147258880?s=20
“One of my wonderful PhD students, Ghanimat Azdahri, was on the plane that crashed in Tehran this morning. Ghanimat was on her way back to @uofg after visiting her family and traditional Indigenous territories in Iran over the December break. The students and I are in so much pain.”
https://twitter.com/CBCAdrianH/status/1215859850888011778?s=20
“Adrian Harewood
@CBCAdrianH
Many have commented on the number of remarkably accomplished people who were on Ukrainian Airlines #Flight752. Among them were:
3 University Professors & Instructors
6 Medical Doctors & Students
3 Dentists
1 Veterinarian
28 PhD Students & Graduates
25 MA Students & Graduates”
https://twitter.com/MorrellAndrews/status/1215046317602410496?s=20
https://twitter.com/LauraMaeLindo/status/1214982378030059520?s=20
https://twitter.com/liz_m_bee/status/1216104912326725634?s=20
https://twitter.com/nekohayo/status/1215396558704910339?s=20
https://twitter.com/RubinsteinJohn/status/1215432891922092033?s=20
Thank you, Hugh, for addressing the elephant in the room: would all those innocent people be alive today if Trump had not killed Sulemani?