In response to an earlier media release regarding the Capital Plan Development Task Force’s review of a report on high-level operational cost forecasting for the three proposed hospital models for the year 2031/32 and a review of the Ministry of Finance projections on population growth and aging during which the task force “heard that Muskoka’s population growth and aging are less than the provincial averages,” Doppler requested a copy of the report and more information on population growth projections.
MAHC responded that “the Task Force will not be publicly releasing any of its finalized reports at this time as these are project-related documents and the project is still underway,” but it agreed to provide a summary. Below is the response we received via email.
“A high-level operational cost forecast summary was prepared for the Task Force by Preyra Solutions Group (PSG). The cost summary estimated the potential operating costs for the year 2031/32 for each of the three models based on the programs and services to be delivered in each model. The summary was meant to provide an order of magnitude of the potential operating costs to assist Task Force members in their model evaluation of the benefits and risks of the three models. The cost summary is not an operating budget, and rather is directional for the purposes of comparison and evaluation.
“The forecast assumes that expenses increase in proportion to projected activity growth (more beds, more tests, more visits). Essentially, the potential operating costs of the three models are based on more beds and the anticipated costs for staff support of the additional beds, new programs/services being added and the anticipated costs for staff support of the new programs/services, and higher volumes of patients being served in the future.
“The cost summary considered the potential operating costs in three categories:
- Patient Care: Nursing, Emergency, Ambulatory Services, Surgery
- Diagnostics: Diagnostic Imaging Services, Clinical Laboratory Services, Allied Health Services, Cardiorespiratory Services, Pharmacy Services
- Support Services: Administration, Information Technology, Plant and Maintenance, Security, Environmental Services, Patient Registration, Food Services, Nursing Administration, Diagnostic Imaging Administration
“The cost summary indicated to the Task Force there is approximately an $8 million difference in the projected cost of operating the Two Acute Sites model versus the projected cost of operating the One Site model in 2031/32. In other words it will cost $8 million more to operate the Two Acute Sites model than to operate the One Site model with the Inpatient Site/Outpatient Site model falling in between that range. The report identified very few economy of scale efficiencies are expected in the Two Acute Sites model. The One Site model and, in some cases, the Inpatient Site/Outpatient Site model include expectations for economy of scale efficiencies as a result of service consolidation to one site.
“The summary also indicated that over the next 15 years, the difference in operating the Two Acute Sites model is forecasted to increase by about 40%. Again, this is based on more beds (96 today versus 157 potentially in 2031/32) and the anticipated staffing requirements and costs, new programs and services being added also factoring in the anticipated staffing requirements and costs (stroke rehabilitation program and MRI), and higher volumes of patients being served in the future.
“The forecast is based on the current funding formula as this is what we know today of how MAHC’s funding is allocated. These numbers are likely to change, which is why it is really meant to be directional to the Task Force to help them understand whether there is a significant difference as they evaluate the risks and benefits of each model.
“At this point, reports before the Task Force have not been formally presented to any stakeholders, including the MAHC Board of Directors. Hence this is why a synopsis of the key findings is the most appropriate until such time it is appropriate to share them publicly.”
You can see the Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections Update, which was released in spring of 2018 based on the 2011 census, by clicking here or visit fin.gov.on.ca for more information.
According to a MAHC media release dated July 13, at its most recent meeting on July 4 the task force reviewed the economic impact analysis, which provided a high-level analysis of the potential regional economic impact of each of the three proposed service delivery models. The consultant’s study included six different methods and approaches. The task force heard that the lack of accessible historical economic development statistical data in Muskoka and East Parry Sound made the study challenging and more anecdotal. Additional feedback from the municipalities and District of Muskoka was offered.
The analysis found that about 34 per cent of hospital industry purchases in Muskoka are made within the region, while the majority of economic activity takes place outside Muskoka. The analysis projected the impact of construction costs and jobs associated with each of the three models. It also indicated that depending on the service delivery model ultimately selected, there could be notable positive and negative employment impacts on the local municipalities, but an overall increase in the number of jobs created in Muskoka in 2031-32. The analysis concluded that each of the three delivery models would result in positive economic and employment impacts for the region as a whole, and the most positive results would be garnered from the Two Acute Sites model. The Inpatient Site/Outpatient Site model and the One Site model would create uneven distribution of the workforce to the respective municipalities where these models are assigned.
Having received the economic impact analysis, task force members completed their evaluation of each model against the evaluation criteria and 500 pages of supporting research, data and studies. The two members who represent the North Simcoe Muskoka LHIN indicated as regional advisors they would not submit criteria evaluation results. The remaining individuals’ confidential evaluations will be compiled and tallied by the consultants and presented at the next task force meeting for review and discussion.
The task force intends to come to a consensus on a preferred service delivery model recommendation by the end of July.
Related:
Muskoka Algonquin Healthcare (MAHC) has invited the community to information sessions about hospital funding and operating budgets, the first of which is tonight, July 16, in Huntsville (advance registration is required). The purpose of the sessions is to educate the public about the provincial funding formula for hospitals, the current capital needs at both sites, and to highlight some of the operating challenges MAHC faces this fiscal year under the current funding allocation model.
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I makes sense that the Task Force is challenged by the complexity the of analysis surrounding this project. Everyone wants the right decision. What we don’t want is another Hospital closed (like Burks Falls) and then to find out, again, that it really did not help and now a significant area and population are denied services.
To assist them in the East Parry Sound portion of their investigation I would like to offer the following:
1/ “The task force heard that the lack of accessible historical economic development statistical data in Muskoka and East Parry Sound made the study challenging and more anecdotal.” It may be advantageous to contact the “Labour Market Group”, from North Bay, who have been collecting and analyzing local economic data for many years. It is not clear how far back they wish to go but better to have real information to base decisions on than stories. (705) 474-0812.
2/ “You can see the Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections Update, which was released in spring of 2018 based on the 2011 census…” The Parry Sound District Social Services Board recently released their in-depth population demographics based on the 2015 census. It includes breakdowns for the East Parry Sound service delivery area. I would suggest that their analysis and projections may provide a better information source than the 2011 census based data. (705) 774-9600.
I hope this information helps.
Mayor Lyle Hall,
The Village of Sundridge
WOW! How long is it going to take to make a decision? This is amazing talking about 2031-32 projections on cost etc etc. Most of the folks who attend these session will not be here in 2031-32! Amazing how you can have a crystal ball to forecast 2031-32 cost, staffing, maintenance COST, area development projections etc etc! ,, When you can’t even make a decision . now .. 2018! Perhaps this is about keeping the narrative alive so the cash flow of salaries and benefits etc etc continue to flow!? Especially when you consider the narrative has been ALIVE since what … 2005!