Listen Up! I’m already second guessing my prediction on the outcome of the next Provincial election

Hugh Mackenzie
Huntsville Doppler

Could it be a Wynne/Win Outcome?

We are barely one week into the New Year and I am already second guessing some of the predictions I have made for 2018. In particular, to my horror, I am beginning to think that Kathleen Wynne and her free-spending Liberals will actually win the provincial election which will take place this June.

Here is a premier whose popularity, less than a year ago, was in the low double digits. Few people thought she would survive, including many in her own party. Even Greg Sorbara, a veteran cabinet minister and one-time president of the Ontario Liberal Party, called for her to step aside. In an interview with TVO’s Steve Paikin last March, Sorbara said, “There’s a whole lot of people in the Ontario Liberal Party who think it’s all over…It’s extremely unlikely Liberals can win the election under Wynne.”

The Wynne Government has been a disaster in so many ways. She was tainted by the gas plant scandals and bears the brunt of responsibility for out of control hydro rates. She claims she has reduced hydro rates by 25 per cent (certainly not mine) but it is only temporary and even that was after an increase of almost 50 per cent. She has done little to address serious infrastructure issues in the province, in fact in Toronto she has impeded them, and she has managed to pile up the largest debt of any sub-national government in the entire world! Do we really need more of this?

So why, you might ask, do I think that Greg Sorbara may well have to eat his words? For one thing, Kathleen Wynne is a fighter. If she had any doubts about heading into the next election, Sorbara’s attack probably put the fire back in her belly.

As well, Wynne is a fierce campaigner. She has defied her personal popularity numbers and she ignored unfavourable polling data. She has acted like a winner, not a loser, and the result is that her numbers are moving up, not dramatically, but steadily. At the same time the Progressive Conservatives, for whom winning the next election should be a shoe-in, have seen their popularity in recent months decrease from 45 per cent to 40 per cent. Six months from an election is not a good time to see your polling numbers going backward!

There are two other factors that have me worried that Kathleen Wynne will form another government this spring. First, she is riding the wave of progressive politics. She is tracking to the left of the NDP which will give them (the NDP) a real problem in the coming election. Kathleen Wynne is promising free post-secondary education to students from families with lower incomes, free prescription drugs for people under the age of 25, and she is raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour. All heady and enticing stuff indeed, as long as one is willing to ignore the economic consequences of these initiatives.

Kathleen Wynne, of course, really does not give a damn about where the money will come from. She is also smart enough to know that many people in Ontario cannot comprehend the consequence and the enormity of the debt she is stacking up for future generations to pay and so they ignore it. It won’t be on her watch when it comes time to pay the piper and that’s all she cares about.

The final factor in my concern about the outcome of the next provincial election is a guy named Patrick Brown. He has been Leader of the Ontario Conservatives for more than a year and a half and, try as I have, I am unable to see the royal jelly. Facebook and Twitter provide a good example. Social media will play a significant role in the next election and at this point, in my view, Wynne is winning that battle. This week alone, Wynne posted several effective items from Tim Hortons, to one-on-one, touchy-feely issues with ordinary Ontarians. Postings from Patrick Brown were mainly about meetings with other Conservatives or about temples or friends he was visiting on his annual trip to India. I see an important difference there.

It is also concerning that the 78-page election platform unveiled by the Ontario PC Party entitled “People’s Guarantee” has had little traction and has done nothing to improve their polling numbers. There are some good things in that document although some conservatives will be concerned about a lack of emphasis on a balanced budget. With barely six months left on the clock, as the song goes, ‘Is that all there is’?

In my view, Patrick Brown has not yet demonstrated that he is a compelling alternative to Kathleen Wynne. His leadership style is not clear, nor is his position on some key issues. My sense is that most people don’t know who he really is. He needs a lot more face time with the people of Ontario, both online and in person.

With Wynne’s record in government, Patrick Brown has a huge opportunity to form the next government in Ontario. However, he still has a long way to go to show that he has what it takes to make that happen. The clock is ticking.

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