This weekend, as I was scanning Canadian News channels, I came across an interview where the leading question was, can Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre maintain his polling position as the clear front-runner until a federal election is held?
That is a good question and perhaps the seminal one leading up to whatever is going to happen in Canadian politics this year. It is certainly the one that political war rooms will be dwelling on, one way or the other.
A Nanos poll within the last week shows pretty clearly that the Trudeau Liberals are currently in real trouble with a polling number of only 21 percent, compared with the Conservatives at 47 percent and the NDP at 17 percent.
Although some historians may correct me, I cannot recall a time when going into an election year, an Opposition Party in Canada had more than twice the support of the governing party. As things stand, Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives are on their way to a massive majority government.
So, the question is, with no more than ten months before a federal election, can things change?
The answer is not likely, especially if Justin Trudeau does not take his ‘walk in the snow’ very soon. Events, particularly those of the past few weeks, have left us with a very weak government. No one is sure of exactly who is in charge and if a vote were held by the Liberal Caucus, the result for Trudeau would not be pretty. The reality is that he has very few friends left and, therefore, almost no platform on which he could stand to win the looming election.
The crusher for Trudeau, I believe, is that, over the years, he has taken his caucus for granted. My way or the highway seemed to be his approach to them. Just be quiet and do as you are told. Consequently, when loyalty from his caucus became essential, it just wasn’t there.
Contrast that with former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, to whom a good relationship with his Caucus was one of his highest priorities. He kept in constant touch; he cared about their families and their personal lives. He would visit them in hospital and celebrate their victories.
Once, during an election campaign, Mulroney was knocking on doors in Vancouver when he learned that the wife of Parry Sound Muskoka M.P. Stan Darling had died. He stopped campaigning and flew back to Ontario for her funeral. Because of selfless acts like this, Conservative Members of Parliament would do almost anything for Brian Mulroney, and that loyalty was evident during many of the low points of his administration.
My view has always been that Justin Trudeau would step down before a federal election is held. I still feel that way. How can he possibly believe he would have any chance of winning with such low public support and his own party wanting him to get out of the way? The week ahead may answer that question one way or another.
Then the question becomes, if not Trudeau, who?
According to some polling and mainstream media, the front runners are Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney. Certainly, both are interested and preparing for a leadership race. That may be true, but there are roadblocks ahead for both of them.
First of all, whether we like it or not, a key quality for any new Prime Minister will be their ability to deal effectively with American President Donald Trump in relation to his current threats against Canada. They have to be taken seriously.
Both Freeland and Carney have a strong background and impressive credentials. However, Freeland cannot help believing she knows best and consequently talks down to people, often appearing to lecture them. Trump will not like that. In addition, Chrystia Freeland is persona non grata in Russia, and Trump, who “admires” Vladimir Putin, would tread lightly to avoid offending him.
As for Mark Carney, no matter his credentials, his background is as a bureaucrat, and he has the personality of a bureaucrat. Donald Trump does not do well with bureaucrats. And he is backed up in this belief by his closest advisor, Elon Musk, who wants to tear down much of the current bureaucracy in the United States.
The bigger problem for both Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney is that they both have had close ties with Justin Trudeau, Freeland as Deputy Prime Minister, and Carney as a longtime senior advisor, both unofficially and officially.
The Conservative’s current extensive lead in the polls is due in part to disaffected Liberals who do not like Justin Trudeau. Once he is gone, will they look to a leader who was so close to him over the years? Likely not.
In a recent article in one of Canada’s dailies, Shachi Kurl, President of the Angus Reid Institute, is quoted as saying, “The wild card here is Conservative Leader Poilievre’s popularity and the momentum a leadership change might afford the Liberals.”
The article goes on to say in part, “Although the Tories have a vast lead in the polls, Poilievre’s popularity is still stagnant, Kurl explained, and that says more about voters’ reaction to Trudeau and his near-decade at the helm of the government, than a swooning for Pierre Poilievre. A change of leadership for the Liberals could start some momentum for the Party – or lead to disaster.
That says to me that while a change in leadership from Justin Trudeau to either Chrystia Freeland or Mark Carney, with their former ties to Trudeau, may narrow the gap between Liberals and Conservatives, it will not be enough to stop the Conservatives from winning the next election, which must be held before October 20.
There are others out there, of course, who believe they can save the Liberal government. It remains my view, however, that anyone with ties to the current government will have a hard row to hoe if they expect to overcome the huge lead of the Conservatives this close to an election.
A qualified outsider, like former British Columbia Premier Chrisy Clark, might have a chance if all the stars aligned. But that is a long shot.
So, to address the question of whether the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre can hold on to a majority lead for the next election, the answer is probably yes.
To me, that says that Mr. Poilievre can stop talking about everything that is wrong with the current Trudeau Government. I think most of us get that. He should also stop talking about issues that most Canadians do not agree with, such as totally defunding the CBC. (67%)
Instead, let’s hear more about what a Conservative Government will do for Canada, how it will deal with an American despot to protect Canadian interests, and specifically, how they will improve the lives of Canadians over the next four years so that we can say we have more freedom from government and are better off than we were under the Trudeau Administration.
In my view, Canadians will be much better served by a Prime Minister who has a positive vision and plan for Canada’s future and economic stability rather than one who was successful simply because most people didn’t like the alternative.
Pierre Poilievre has ten months to demonstrate that he can be that person. It will be interesting to see if he can pull it off.
Hugh Mackenzie.
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Canada has a a program called employment insurance. Mr Trudeau decided not to use employment insurance to help working people. Instead he gave too much money to too many people with his program. He also came up with a program where small business could borrow $40,000 and only pay back $30,000 basically giving away $10,000 to anyone that qualified for the program…this program was pushed by my bank. I don’t know how much the bank was paid to promote the program. I DID NOT TAKE THE LOAN. So after giving away all this money he called an election….during the pandemic. You know… 10 grand for freee just vote for me! He tried to gain favour with tax payers using their own money. What about the arrivecan app? Just recently he decided to take the hst of some items and give some Canadians $250. This last episode of trying to by votes was the last straw for Chrystia Freeland (that and he pulled his classic” my way or the highway” move on Freeland)
Carol Earl, there is no such thing as a consensus as to what makes up “common sense”. That is a myth, in my opinion. Perfect example is Mike Harris’ “common sense revolution”. As Mr. Markle notes, we are still dealing with the outcomes and aftermath of that “common sense”.
PP and the CPC have indeed been silent on constructive policy post-pandemic.
I am sooo… tired of populist phrases that describe nothing but a superficial slogan – no thoughtful solutions to consider/debate, (axe the tax is primary).
Found an interesting 18 minute YouTube entitled, “Poilievre’s Slogans vs. Reality Check -what’s really going on” (PP’s 14 word salad to sum up all of problems and answers for Canada).
I have yet to hear him deliver the powerful speeches of Charlie Angus and Elizabeth May to Pres-elect DT.
Will PP ever decide that it would be in the country’s best interest for him to submit to a full clearance check to be informed of the report on foreign interference in election campaigning?
I raise the following as discussion for Trudeau’s challenges while in office – and one I felt he and the Liberals measured up.
The National Post still complaining about the government response to COVID pandemic, with clear implications of that response being politicized. Give me a break. Let me know the proven play book for handling a pandemic and I’ll ask if it has been made into a Disney movie yet. Science, professionals, and public health responded as best under the circumstances. People were angry at being told what to do and frightened about vaccinations – so, as a society -those who want their “liberty” untouched must also be reminded that with choice comes responsibility. Responsibility for self and the acknowledgement that we humans are co-dependent. Thank you for reading.
It seems that PM Trudeau is about to take his ‘walk in the snow’. If there is any in Ottawa. But I guess we get ‘snowed’ by most things from the political portion of that city. He’s been dead in the water for a while now. It will be a big process to choose another leader. We need reasonable opposition so wish us well.
Did anyone actually get anything from the Peterson interview other than the PC leader telling us that nothing is going to change right away. “Axe the tax” won’t happen immediately? Housing won’t sprint into being? Criminals needn’t get used to the bars? I haven’t heard of any other immediate rectifications, but those would be a start eh! Why not right away?
We will soon be inundated with PCers looking for our vote. Certainly locally. Going by what their leader has stated, the candidates won’t have much to offer except for changes somewhere down the road. Feel the excitement building?
And I’m a little gun shy when it comes to that mentioned ‘common sense ‘ approach in our politics. Remember Mike Harris? His was a ‘ common sense revolution’ I know but we’re still on the hook and suffering from the fall-out.
It will be interesting to watch the Liberals flail. We’ll have to listen to a lot more nothing from the PCs. until the coming election and their proposed majority.
Then we get to sit back and let the good times roll. Here’s hoping.
Very good question Hugh, and the answer is far from clear. As for relations with his cabinet, Poilievre is known to be more adamant than Trudeau about keeping tight control of the message. As for Mark Carney being a bureaucrat, is it better for Canada to be led by an unknown abrasive and petulant critic, or is it better to be led by a widely respected and diplomatic bureaucrat with global experience?
Nine months is a long time in politics. So far, Poilievre has been very clever about hiding his magic solutions, but he will have to start being honest during an election campaign. He says he has “personally” analysed which federal programs and departments he would eliminate. I’ll bet even his shadow cabinet can’t wait to see that list.
Poilievre says Canada is broken. Apparently, he is so busy criticizing that he doesn’t know that every other country is struggling with the same issues. Inflation of food costs and housing costs is not unique to Canada. In fact, Canada still ranks among the best countries in objective international comparisons.
The two most important jobs for our federal government for the next four years are dealing with Trump’s immediate threats and dealing with the ongoing but much bigger threat of climate change. Its difficult to see how an unknown bombastic and condescending Poilievre could deal effectively with an impulsive, narcissistic president. 2024 was the hottest year on record. Climate change continues to destroy food crops, housing, and infrastructure everywhere, driving inflation and migration from the generally poorer global south. So far, Poilievre has been afraid to say anything about what Canada as a G7 country should do as our share to support global efforts to mitigate climate change.
Hugh has a good point near the end. I’d sure like to hear more about how a Conservative government will “improve both my and the country’s situation”. I’m no longer interested in what Trudeau did wrong, he has done it, it is history, leave it for the 2040 grade 10 history class.
Oh Hugh……first, you tried to distract by using Mr. Wonderful, who is irrelevant. Now you’re actually trying to spin it that the liberals might have a chance?
Liberal and the NDP, have ensured that won’t happen.
I know a common sense approach isn’t popular these days, but that’s exactly what this country needs. We’re long overdue to get rid of the village idiot. Anyone defending them at this point, is really embarrassing themselves.
If you are looking for a positive vision of the future, take a listen to Pierre’s 90 minutes interview with Jordan Peterson. Full of details and a positive outlook for Canada’s future. Carney is another Michael Ignatieff. Freeland has been lockstep’ with Trudeau since the beginning and is just jumping from the ship she helped sink.
The Libs are done and Canadians are sick of being lectured to by a bunch of elite snobs.