“There comes a time when wise leaders decide to step aside gracefully and pass the baton.” – Dr. Jane Philpot, former Liberal Minister of Health
Bang on!
Clearly Jane Philpot is referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but the same maxim is now equally appropriate for American President Joe Biden. It has been that kind of a week.
Certainly, both United States President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have dug their heels in after a disastrous week for both of them. And their respective opponents, Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre are hoping against hope that they stay like that. It is hard not to believe that if elections were held today, Donald Trump would again become President of the United States, and Pierre Poilievre would become Prime Minister of Canada.
But elections are not being held today, and as the old saying goes, there are many slips between cup and lips.
I continue to believe that Justin Trudeau will step aside no later than this Fall. That may not be his wish, but the federal Liberal machine, both those who are elected and especially those in the back room who pull the strings, are too savvy and too power-hungry to allow a Leader to go into an election when all signs are that he will lose.
If there were cracks showing in Liberal dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau before last week, after losing one of the safest Liberal seats in the entire country, those cracks have developed into deep crevasses.
In addition to Jane Philpot, Catherine McKenna, former Minister of the Environment and Climate Change in Trudeau’s government, has said, “Liberals need a new leader.” It could be she is sniffing around for that job herself.
After the defeat in the Riding of St. Paul’s, former Liberal heavyweight John Manley has also called for Trudeau to step aside, as have a number of others. What Manley has said out loud and what many are thinking privately is that the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau has moved too far to the left, a sentiment with which I strongly agree.
The Liberal caucus as well is showing signs of panic, with some demanding an immediate meeting of caucus and others anonymously leaking their belief that Trudeau should go.
Given all of that, it will be very difficult, in my view, for Justin Trudeau to hang on. I would bet even odds that there is a leadership race underway by the end of this year and a new Liberal leader in place before the next federal election.
The only caveat to that would be if the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh ever wakes up and realizes he will never be Prime Minister but could become Leader of the Opposition as things currently stand and consequently forces an immediate election which the Conservatives would joyfully support.
The greater reality, however, is that Pierre Poilievre could face a new Liberal leader when an election is called. Also, it is important to remember that the anger and discontent directed at the current government is more about Justin Trudeau and to a lesser degree about Chrystia Freeland, than it is about the Liberal Party itself. With him gone and if Freeland is out of the way, it will be a tighter race and polling will reflect that.
I believe, therefore, that Pierre Poilievre still has his work cut out for him. He is riding high, at least in part because of a strong belief by many Canadians that Justin Trudeau should go. Nevertheless, he has clearly shown himself and the Conservatives to be a reasonable alternative to the Trudeau Government. That is the job of the Official Opposition.
When the election comes, if Trudeau remains, it will be a slam dunk for Pierre Poilievre. If he goes, it could well be a brand-new ball game.
Turning now to the other political disaster of the week, let’s talk briefly about the presidential debate in the United States last Thursday.
It was an embarrassment. As one Republican friend of mine said, “It was a painful 90 minutes and very disturbing for the country and the Western world.” He went on to say that the next several months will be “very dangerous for the West”.
Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are elderly men. During the debate, both men, although very differently, exhibited traits that should disqualify them as presidential candidates.
Donald Trump couldn’t (or wouldn’t) answer most questions. His character as a bully and a liar was front and centre. Factfinders identified 28 significant lies from Trump in a 90-minute debate.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, was like a deer caught in the headlights. It was sad to watch him. He looked confused and disoriented. From that performance, it was easy to label him as having cognitive issues. To be fair, Biden’s performance at the State of the Union Address earlier this year and at the rallies he has attended since Debate Night were very different and of a much higher quality. His significant lapses at the debate, however, cannot be ignored.
The question must then be asked: Why are these two men the best that one of the most powerful countries in the world can put forward to be its president? To me, it says something serious and alarming about the fragility of democracy in the United States.
After last week’s debate and Joe Biden’s obvious state, many people probably believe that, in spite of all his flaws, Donald Trump will again become President of the United States. Polls released this coming week will indicate the degree to which the national debate has hurt Biden.
At this moment, like Trudeau, Biden is being pretty clear that he is in for the long run. But although the situation in the States is limited by time, there are indications of a great deal of stress and concern within the Democratic Party, many calling for him to step down.
In my view, it is not as certain that Biden will be forced off the ticket this close to the election as it is that Trudeau, with potentially a longer timeframe before an election, will step down.
Whether Joe Biden will be persuaded to drop out of the presidential race is still an open question. If he does, Donald Trump will face a new opponent, and that, too, could be a game changer. If he does not, and assuming Biden shows he can recover from the debate, the election in November will be, at best, a cliffhanger, and the outcome will be a real concern to Canada and much of the world.
As a result of events that have taken place in the past week, there can be little doubt that there is much talk, strategizing and manipulation going on about leadership in both Ottawa and Washington. From both perspectives, the next several months will indeed be very interesting, if not somewhat scary, to watch.
Very soon, we will see who will pass the baton and who will not.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Both Trudeau and Biden are trying desperately to hang on to power, to the detriment of their party and country.
Biden is out of time. Trudeau has perhaps till the fall, but the longer he hangs on, the deeper the hole for the Liberals gets. Interesting times ahead..
I think the comment of leadership being disliked hits the nail on the head. I am sure that many competent and capable people do NOT pursue politics because of that. It’s hard to be the leader and make tough decisions. It’s easy to be popular and pander to the groups.
American politics just cause worry, so I’ll stick to the BS here at home. It causes me worry too. We have a government that is on the ropes, simply because the leader is disliked. Now. I never liked the Liberal ideology either, but the clap-trap from the Conservative side “Don’t impress me much”. Both Poilievre and Ford should listen to the lyrics of Shania’s song.
I thought it wrong when Trudeau started pumping out cash and creating a society only too happy to lean on the crutch that was offered. Now it’s tough to get people to stop leaning and go back to work. It might have been better to let them crash and burn in ’20 and ’21 rather than listen to the moaning and whining in ’22 and ’23. But he didn’t.
He also pumped money into the one trick pony of big oil. It might have been alright if done on a smaller scale and we actually owned the oil. We do, sort of, but we just get a meager royalty from big corporations that care not if the land and water-shed is viable after the boom is over. And draining those massive, toxic ponds into the rivers and lakes is in the offing. But maybe it won’t be a Liberal government that does that and pollutes the Arctic.
With the Conservatives it’s all anti -what- the -Liberals- do and sound bites. Like “Axe the Tax”. Hardly a platform, but they will sail it. Like a messianic prophecy. And the bit about having a plan but keeping it a secret ’til after the election. So it doesn’t get stolen by the opposition!! Believe that and there’s land for sale under those tailing ponds. Good investment potential. Wouldn’t shuck ya.
I’m pretty sure I don’t care who is the leader as long as they are a leader and have the interest of the country as a political priority. They can be blue, green, red, orange, or whatever. We have a lot of stuff that needs attention, some of it like the military or medical goes back a number of governments. And colour doesn’t matter.
But if the federal Conservatives take a page from the Ford government!! That won’t impress me much! Even if some of the Ford programs is saving me……. ! Well, nothing. Because taxes and prices are still going up.
I’m sure everyone has noticed.
As a largely independent voter and political observer whose recollection goes back to the Diefenbaker Era, I can remember no such time when the policy (ideas) choice were so pathetic in both Canada and the USA.
Given a wider choice, I wouldn’t want to vote for any of those 4 men. The Republican/Conservatives have no policy/ideas/vision but to disagree with the “ruling” parties. The Democrats and Liberals (and probably the NDP) have become lifeless and transactional without a presentable vision of a future Canada.
IMHO, the cause is that politicians are indirectly bought by big money….and that big money is betting not on policies but simply on “a winner”
The solution (which is obvious to me) is to end the first past the post election system. The benefits would be:
– big money would not bet on “the winner” as 1 single winning party would most unlikely;
– each community would be represented by someone who in fact would represent them, not political syncophants ( does MPP Smith truly think that the vast majority of his constituents want Hwy 413 built and how much funding has MP Aitchison garnered for Muskoka in affordable housing?);
– voters will feel less disenfranchised, as there is a better chance their vote will “count”
– turnout will increase and participation rates will soar; and
– ideas and policy and vision will once again matter
In the best interests of democracy, it is time for FPP to go
After watching Trudeau’s Canada Day interview on CBC this afternoon, oh boy he really is listening to my advice, even better than I could’ve imagined. If possible he is even more of a delusional narcissist than Donald Trump is. Good luck Liberals, he just might end up driving you into the ground worse than Kathleen Wynne did
PS I hate to disappoint Mr Holland, but he’s going to get either Freeland or Joly, way before Ignatieff 2.0 arrives on the scene
Donald Trump is a liar. Yet he could become president again.
Pierre Poilievre is a liar. Yet he could become prime minister.
Doug Ford is a liar. Yet he could become premier again.
Trump has shown PCs in Canada that blatant lies hardly affect polling numbers at all.
Search “What Pierre Poilievre and Donald Trump have in common”
“we now have a Canadian Conservative leader who trades in the same trademark combination of bombast, belligerence, and bs.”
Everything Poilievre said about the carbon tax and its effect on inflation is not true.
“Letters: Conservatives are telling tall tales on carbon tax”
.https://southmuskoka.doppleronline.ca/letters-conservatives-are-telling-tall-tales-on-carbon-tax/
Everything Doug Ford said about the Science Centre is not true.
Doug Ford needs to sort out his priorities.
https://doppleronline.ca/huntsville/ontario-begins-automatic-licence-plate-renewals-starting-july-1st/#comment-143449
The press needs to preface any statement from Doug Ford with “Doug Ford claims” or “Ontario claims.”
Instead of false headlines that their statements are fact.
Just like the press prefaces anything Trump says with “Trump claims” and then debunks his statements in the rest of the story.
At least the press is now starting to debunk Ford’s lies after publishing false headlines regarding the Science Centre.
The roof is not in danger of collapse.
Closure is not needed for safety.
None of the roofs over exhibition spaces is an issue at all.
Watch the video where the original architect debunks Ford and his minions statements.
Search “Original architects say Science Centre didn’t have to close”
Yes.
Former conservative PM Brian Mulroney said Justin Trudeau appointed, supported, and successfully led a government through many difficult and important challenges during his time as Prime Minister. (the pandemic, facing a ruthless Trump in the renegotiation of NAFTA, support for Ukraine, support for our poorest region Atlantic Canada, major efforts to mitigate climate change, and major investments in the production and use of clean energy). But there comes a time when the electorate just wants change. If we really want change, how about a truly fresh face?
Major global and national events have transformed today’s political debate into how to balance short-term economic sustainability with now short-term climate sustainability.
No one is more qualified to lead Canada through that discussion than Mark Carney, with his outstanding education at Harvard and Oxford, his extensive business experience and connections as Governor of the Bank of Canada, Governor of the Bank of England, Head of the International Financial Stability Board in Basil Switzerland, and as the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. If he would take the job, we would be very lucky to have him.
But far-right conservatives and vested fossil fuel interests already have Pierre Poilievre in their hip pocket. So, right-wing media is attacking all possible replacements for Trudeau. They say Carney may not know how to talk to ordinary people. But my very close Canadian friend that worked with Carney for several years at Goldman Saks in New York says that is just not true.
Carney’s very normal early family life also dispels that accusation as just more political nonsense. Carney, now 59, was one of 4 children born to two teachers in Fort Smith NWT. The family moved to Edmonton when Mark was age 6 where his dad became a high school principal and his mom stayed home to raise their 4 active children. Mark was a team player in hockey in both high school and university.
after the catastrophic, disatrous loss in Toronto St Paul’s, pundits wondered what would be Trudeau’s strategy? Any Prime Minister threatened by such a result, along with consistently horrible poll numbers since last summer would be expected to do some soul searching, reconsidering, and brain storming the problem. We really didn’t need to wonder about Trudeau though, as evidenced by his “performance” in Markham on Friday night. The answer from him is always performance, costume play and foolishness. Trudeau is a profoundly unserious man, who has nothing to offer Canadians in these very serious times.
I implore the Prime Minister now, please continue to listen to yourself in the mirror. You are so great! Your advisors, pollsters and the Canadian people are wrong! You must stay to fight the next election. Strike up the band! Roll up the pant legs and show us all the zany new socks! Jump on that Oprah couch and shout it out for all to hear! Lol