Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break this week from Listen Up! This is a guest commentary by Dave Wilkin.
Donald Trump’s win was stunning, as he captured all seven swing states, 50% of the popular vote, and broadened his voter base across many demographics. The pollsters missed it, as did Democrat party leaders and strategists, who are trying to determine what went wrong.
It’s really not that hard to see why Trump won. He focused on the issues most Americans are concerned about. Topping the list, economic worries, stemming mostly from the high cost of living. Just as James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist said in 1992, “it’s the economy, stupid”. Also high on the list was illegal immigration, deadly drugs and costly foreign wars.
In contrast, VP Kamala Harris opted for the continuation of President Biden’s policies, offering little new. Democrats discounted polling that showed most American voters thought the country was headed in the wrong direction and wanted change. Instead, they focused on macroeconomic accomplishments and abortion and attacked Trump personally, including claiming that democracy was on the ballot. Despite markets reaching record highs, many in the working/middle class abandoned the Democrats. This continued a global trend of struggling incumbent governments getting tossed out.
So, how might a Trump 2.0 presidency be different? He will have fewer restraints—more people ideologically closer to him, no concerns over re-election, and experience working the levers of power to achieve his objectives. A Republican-controlled House, Senate, and Supreme Court further strengthens his hand.
His administration will face a more challenging, shifting, multipolar world order—a more aggressive and powerful China, an accelerating India, and other fast-rising Asian countries. Slowing economies in Europe, stressed by the Ukraine war and an increasingly aggressive Russia (China-backed), are additional evidence of that shift. The war in the Middle East has also raised global tensions and concerns over energy security. Trump’s win and his stronger America First agenda need to be seen in the context of this shifted global picture.
So, what does it mean for Canada?
Much is at stake, with 75% of our exports US bound, and Trump promising big tariff increases, recently bumped up to 25% if we fail to address border security concerns. It’s likely a bargaining ploy and being lumped in with Mexico on border security certainly isn’t fair, but we must take his threat very seriously. On this side of the border, we now face a potential flood of migrants fleeing before Trump’s deportation actions begin, which would make dealing with our immigration and border challenges much harder.
The Trudeau government’s NATO defense spending target miss is another problem. The US currently comprises about two thirds of all NATO defence spending, so Trump has leverage, and he’s using it. Europe is upping its game, but Canada remains near the bottom of the list (as a share of GDP). To meet our NATO commitment, Canada would need to double defence spending, to $82 billion annually by 2032, and even that may be insufficient.
On climate change and energy policy, the Trudeau government will be out of step with the new US administration. Trump will abandon much of Biden’s IRA and lower regulations to promote US oil and gas. This could be a problem, as US-bound Canadian oil and gas comprises almost 20% of all Canadian exports. Additionally, funding to developing countries to help them address their climate-change/energy transition costs could be at risk too, as the US is by far the largest contributor. The recent tripling of the overall target to $300 billion, announced at the COP29 convention further raises the stakes. Pressure is likely to only increase on the other developed countries, including Canada, to not only accelerate their contributions, but potentially to help fill any future US funding gap.
At the same time, Trump’s election presents opportunities. The US will need Canadian energy and natural resources for the foreseeable future, and our integrated manufacturing systems work well together. So Canada is well positioned to be an even closer partner with the US to face the challenges ahead. But this will require a clear plan with important adjustments, especially significant new investments in both border security and defence, changes in energy/climate policy and a tone shift. Trudeau’s government has been negative and disparaging of Trump, including trying to scare Canadians into not voting conservative, painting them as ‘MAGA’ politicians. Not surprising, Trump’s view of our PM is poor, having called him “two-faced”, “weak” and a “far-left lunatic”. He also likely sees him as a lame duck.
Can the Liberals pivot and gain traction with Trump, or will it require a new government? US Democrats learned the hard way that when voters want change, you had better listen to them. So far, that message hasn’t broken through for the Liberals. That may change, but the clock is ticking down.
Dave Wilkin is a professional Engineer, with a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy, and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.
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It is my hope that the Trudeau government and all political parties can put partisan politics and games aside for the next 6 weeks or so and focus on crafting a rational and unified plan to address Trump’s very real threats.
After Trump takes office, we need an election sooner rather than later. This will give Canadian’s a say on not only how to put Canada back on a better track broadly, but critically, how to improve and grow our relationship with our closest and most important partner, the US. The stakes are so high, and rising.
I don’t think this is too much to ask for.
In regards to the commenter who implied we should accept Trump’s bullying tactics, and accept all – I say this:
Canada is a place defined by it’s land, it’s culture and it’s people. We have our own history, economy, art, literature and challenges. We are not simply waiting for America to annex us and turn us into Alabama-light. Canadians DO NOT want guns in their streets, they DO NOT want to give America our land and fresh water, they DO NOT want to get the sharp end of the stick in every negotiation with Trump – which is what will happen if we just roll over and take it.
I agree it’s more than time for Trudeau to go, but Polliviere (who uses corrosive language to stir up hatred) isn’t the answer either. We need new leadership, both federally and provincially (let’s throw Ford in here too, because – woof! – talk about cronyism and corruption!). I implore every good Canadian to get involved with politics, at any level of government. We need to protect our environment and economy and – especially right now – we need fresh minds to lead us.
YOU may be the next Prime Minister.
Think about it, eh?
Get involved:
https://liberal.ca/register/
https://act.ndp.ca/donate/membership-en
https://donate.conservative.ca/membership/
Hugh for the record I am pro EV. I simply do not think the US government needs to get involved with mandates. Let the market take care of itself.
As EV prices continue to fall and quality and range continue to increase auto manufacturers will stop producing ICE (internal combustion engines) vehicles. Sure, some people may want them but producers will not have enough volume for it to make any sense. They may continue to partner with the Chinese or close forever but manufactures do not want to be saddled with ICE vehicles no one wants plus the 7 year warranty and service obligations they are legally bound by.
This transformation is well underway and happening quickly. All ICE factories have already closed in Australia, most have closed in China and the closures & layoffs in Europe and Japan are growing every month. Legacy auto only has North America left now which is 1/3 of global sales (1/3 China, 1/3 Europe and remaining countries). As ICE sales continue to fall along with profit’s they still have record levels of debt to deal with while trying to reinvent themselves and catch up to Chinese manufactures who’s sales are growing at an alarming rate.
My prediction is that there will be zero ICE production past 2030 if not sooner which is well ahead of any government mandates.
When the carbon tax is applied it a tax on the total sale of product and tax, maybe Hugh can explain the logic of taxing the HST?
Taxing taxes is just wrong and makes no sense.
If the carbon tax is such a wonderful thing why did Trudeau remove it on home heating in certain places in Canada? Everyone knows the answer. Trudeau’s popularity is very low so he gives us a HST holiday on beer, but not aspirin. Why did he not remove the HST on home heating in Muskoka? The conservatives promise to ax the carbon tax, and remove HST on houses sold for less than 1 million dollars. That is a good thing in my opinion. When the next federal election come around I have a feeling that Mr. Holland and I will cancel each others votes. I hope there are enough people that don’t vote for Trudeau that he is removed from power.
Britt Stevens, the number one thing most consumers can do to reduce their personal emissions is to make their next vehicle an EV,. Any brand of EV is better and the energy is far cheaper than burning gasoline. Emissions come from producing and burning fossil fuels. Producers cant stop producing gasoline and diesel until consumers stop buying it. And we sure need that, if we care at all about the future our kids and grandkids will be living in. Its not about forcing anyone to buy any particular brand or style of EV.
By the way, it was the US legacy automakers that helped China to stop building junk and build acceptable quality during the 1980s and 1990s China has seen the light and is now the world’s biggest builder of EVs for their 1.4 billion people.
I agree with most of what you have said Dave. Couple thoughts: Criminals and drugs are country killers. Our government and the Canadian media should embrace Trumps 25% tariff condition and work with him rather than panic and call him a bully for doing the right thing. Substance abuse hits close to home with both Trump & Vance. Trumps brother died from alcoholism and Vance’s mother is a recovering heroin addict. They simply are not going to tolerate it and nor should they.
I think Trump may roll back Bidens EV mandates but for good reason. The government does not need to be involved in what we should or should not drive and what legacy auto manufactures choose to produce. The world is changing and adopting both renewable energy and EV’s whether they are mandated or not. Trump does not want to be responsible for Ford, GM, Stellantis etc. going bankrupt because they were forced to build inferior EV’s. North American auto manufactures as well as German and Japanese manufactures will get crushed by the Chinese if they do not get their act together mandate or no mandate.
Mr. Wilkins, I understand that the margin of the popular vote between Harris and Trump was much less than that of Biden and Trump last election. His popular vote tally, as ballots had continued to be counted was under 50%.
We are in for a very rocky ride, as his appointment candidates continue to make news, unvetted by the FBI, as I understand. Convicted criminals, nepotism prevail, ultra wealthy -that’s the talent DT is inviting.
He has contempt for civil servants (not unlike Stephen Harper’s term).
Although negotiating with the Americans are crucial to optimizing our trading and security, they must be that -negotiations – not appeasement. As for the oil and gas sector’s uber impact on environment, energy policy and now political leadership and the democratic process, I am only thinking of Kurt Vonnegut’s quote: “Dear future generations: Please accept our apologies. We were rolling drunk on petroleum.” Add that to our wills and testaments.
Yes Dave, whatever government we have in Canada will indeed face major challenges. Trump’s pressure for more border security and more NATO spending is understandable, but his gutting of environmental programs is very short-sighted and counterproductive And its impossible to see how Poilievre’s promised tax cuts could square with Trump’s pressures without cutting important programs like health care and education that are already stretched. Poilievre’s signature goal is to cut the refundable carbon tax. But the money is refunded so there is nothing to cut or save for either consumers or government, except the incentive for consumers to think about reducing their emissions. And cutting the carbon tax also kills incentive for producers to reduce their emissions, because producers can only produce what consumers want to consume. Do we care at all that our kids would pay a big price for those short-sighted actions?