By Hugh Holland
Productivity is defined as output (Gross Domestic Product) per hour worked. Several recent reports have drawn attention to Canada’s waning productivity relative to some other countries. Here are some sample productivity numbers and other related data.
(See chart source below)
Productivity affects our standard of living and general happiness. Growth in labour productivity indicates a higher level of output for every hour worked. But productivity reflects much more than just how hard we work. It reflects investments in tools and technologies (E.g., a bulldozer or a backhoe is much more productive than a hand shovel), effective utilization of available workers, including immigrants, and the level of internal cooperation.
Remembering the basic and timeless principles of economics and good planning is important. Our productivity and standard of living are improved when we minimize our threats and weaknesses and maximize our strengths and opportunities in line with global needs and trends. The data shows the refundable carbon tax has no effect on productivity but does provide an incentive to transition to clean energy in line with the most basic principle of economics. If we want to make real progress, we must axe Poilievre’s “Axe the Tax” campaign.
Every day, the need to address global warming becomes more obvious. Just as climate scientists have been predicting for many years, most of the heat from global warming is accumulating in the water that makes up 70 per cent of the earth’s surface. That is causing more evaporation and the formation of atmospheric rivers over coastal areas everywhere, as well as drought conditions and wildfires in inland areas. On this Easter weekend of 2024, we experienced infrastructure-wrecking extreme rain in Newfoundland and California and the earliest wildfire ever in Quebec. The USA is expecting the tornado season to be earlier than ever this year. How much more proof do we need?
The biggest global need at this point is the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The world has only one atmosphere. Our pollution soon becomes China’s pollution and vice versa. The second biggest global need is to replace finite oil and gas before we run out of them in about 50 years. That would pile a global energy crisis on top of a global climate crisis.
Canada’s carbon emissions per capita are second only to Saudi Arabia and more than twice China’s. That means we have no credibility to lecture others about reducing their emissions until we reduce ours. It also makes it hypocritical for us to try to sell our oil and gas to other countries.
It will always be difficult to compete in manufacturing with the economies of scale of China and the USA’s large populations. But for the past 50 years, Canada has been a powerhouse in carbon-based energy. Crude oil has been our #1 export by far. But if we want to maintain our standard of living, we must and can transition to becoming a powerhouse in new zero-carbon energy.
The decisions and investments to build the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and the Coastal Gas Link pipeline were made 8 to 10 years ago, and they will both be coming onstream this spring to temporarily boost our productivity and help countries that still need our oil and gas. But at this point, it makes no sense to invest in additional oil and gas infrastructure that would become obsolete before it can be completed.
The prairies of Alberta and Saskatchewan are hotspots for wind and solar energy. The western provinces and territories are hotspots for geothermal energy that can make both electricity to replace gasoline as well as hydrogen to replace diesel and jet fuel. The skills and resources of the existing oil and gas industry provide the strengths needed to capture those opportunities. The Coastal Gas Link pipeline and terminal can be converted from shipping LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) to shipping hydrogen to the vast markets in Asia. To their credit, Alberta seems to have recognized some of those opportunities and decided to accept the $300 million offer from Ottawa to build solar energy.
The Atlantic provinces and the St Lawrence basin of eastern Quebec have very long coastal areas that can be very productive for making wind energy. Canada has already signed contracts to use that opportunity to make hydrogen for Germany. Blaine Higg’s idea to ship LNG from New Brunswick to Europe makes no sense. Europe wants clean energy. If New Brunswick could make LNG, why haven’t they been doing it to produce their own electricity? LNG will be obsolete before the infrastructure to make it can be built.
BC, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec still have strength in hydro, but that, too, is waning with climate change’s erratic drought conditions. Ontario continues to lead in the cleanest and safest forms of nuclear energy. Saskatchewan has enormous uranium resources needed for nuclear energy.
If we follow the basic and timeless principles of planning and economics, Canada has all the strengths and opportunities needed to improve our environment, standard of living, and happiness.
Hugh Holland
Links to chart information:
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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Thank you so much Mr. Holland and Mr. Braan, your writing and perspectives are greatly appreciated.
Here’s to a good future for Canada!
So long as Canada ignores PC lies and continues to replace fossil fuels with much cheaper renewable energy and battery projects like the rest of the world.
Shutting down existing and cancelling planned GHG spewing natural gas power plants.
Dropping electricity prices in the process and reducing/eliminating outages due to thermal plant failures.
Both federal and provincial Conservatives and their fanatics are telling tall tales about the carbon tax and energy.
Over and over.
It’s insulting to Canadians
They make no sense at all.
Perhaps they should read up a tiny bit.
Is it a requirement that PCs don’t follow world news at all?
Poilievre is counting on the uninformed. That’s his base.
A list of headlines was provided if you are interested in facts instead of misinformation from those who parrot Conservative lies.
Here are a few more:
12. Bracebridge Generation’s ‘first-of-its-kind’ power grid tested in Parry Sound
Lakeland barely finished the new battery microgrid when the power failed. It kept the lights on.
13. UK renewable boom plunges electricity prices
“UK wholesale electricity prices dropped sharply in the first quarter due to record-high renewable energy production, according to a report”
“Renewable energy production reached a historic high of 35.40TWh, comprising almost half (47%) of Britain’s fuel mix for the quarter, according to the report.”
Nutty PC Dani Smith in AB says that amount of renewables is impossible. She even took out TV ads in other provinces saying renewables causes outages. LOL.
Most new energy in the world is renewable.
Simply because renewables are cheaper.
Not just because of climate change.
GHG spewing natural gas is the most expensive source of power per kWh.
14. German utility to build 280 MWh battery at former nuclear plant
Among many, many other battery projects in the world. Including 1.6 GW in Ontario.
15. This California city is trading an old gas plant for a giant grid battery
Calpine’s billion-dollar, 680-megawatt project in Menifee will be one of the biggest batteries in the U.S. when it comes online this summer.
16. Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants | Reuters
“Data shows 68 gas plant projects cancelled or put on hold”
“Giant batteries that ensure stable power supply by offsetting intermittent renewable supplies are becoming cheap enough to make developers abandon scores of projects for gas-fired generation world-wide.”
17. 2nd grid alert in a week leads to rotating power outages in Alberta. What’s going on?
“The 420-megawatt Keephills 2 natural gas power plant near Wabamun Lake in Parkland County went offline unexpectedly just before 9 a.m., but the AESO was not able to say why. Global News has submitted a request to operator TransAlta for more information.“What exacerbated the issue and resulted in the fact that we had to rotate outages was the fact that a thermal unit that was already at full capacity tripped off,” said Marie-France Samaroden, the vice-president of grid reliability operations with AESO.”
Giant grid batteries would have prevented the outages in AB as they have in the rest of the world. They respond in milliseconds to thermal power plant failures.
18. Analysis: China’s emissions set to fall in 2024 after record growth in clean energy
More clean energy built in China than the rest of the world combined.
Combined.
19. In the salt deserts bordering Pakistan, India builds its largest renewable energy project
“It will supply 30 gigawatts of renewable energy annually, enough to power nearly 18 million Indian homes.”
30 GW! 18 million! homes.
Among many other renewable projects in India.
20. This Nation of 10 Million People Just Ran Entirely on Renewable Energy for 149 Hours
“For 149 consecutive hours in November, Portugal provided a stunning example of what that could look like, as it used a mix of solar, wind, and hydropower to provide more clean energy than the entire country needed.
The nation has plans to upgrade its wind turbines, expand its solar capacity, and close its last gas-powered plants.”
21. BC Hydro has identified 16 prospective geothermal sites in the province, with the six most likely prospects having an estimated geothermal potential of over 1,000 MW collectively
Renewable power is not just solar and wind. Reliable non-emitting 24/7 power from geothermal should also be pursued. Like in Alberta and Sask.
22. Saskatchewan company greenlights Canada’s first large-scale geothermal power plant
23. Greenview Geothermal Power Plant (Alberta No. 1)
“According to the Canadian Geothermal Energy Association, there is a geothermal resource potential of 388,500 megawatts (MW) in Alberta.
24. Tapping into the million-year energy source below our feet. MIT spinout Quaise Energy is working to create geothermal wells made from the deepest holes in the world.
Headlines 21.-23. are conventional geothermal. Ultra 20 km deep geothermal would make it viable anywhere. Repurpose existing fossil fuel plants to clean geothermal energy. Search “Quaise Energy.” Results, good or bad, in a couple of years.
25. This community just threw a wrench into Doug Ford’s plans for new gas plants
They are using legislation Doug Ford created to stop the new gas plants.
That’s funny.
Doug Ford is stuck in the past.
“Multiple studies have shown that the province can meet its power needs without building new gas plants, and that solar and wind power, as well as programs that reduce electricity demand through incentives and efficiency, are much cheaper in the long run.”
Simply because renewables are cheaper.
Not just because of climate change.
Why would anyone build new, expensive gas plants in Ontario when the feds require them to be shut down in 2035?
Don’t worry, Doug Ford has that covered
“However, the companies who would build Ontario’s new gas-fired power plants have nothing to worry about: even if the feds shut them down, the Ford government is promising they’ll continue to get paid.”
Typical Doug Ford deal.
26. LILLEY: Poilievre ran in favour of carbon taxes multiple times in his career
Remember Poilievre was also a big fan of the carbon tax.
But now he’s the official opposition so lying and complaining about everything is his thing.
Good idea or bad.
Complaints are easy. And worthless.
Solutions are hard. And very valuable.
Nothing of any value has ever come out of PP’s mouth. Just complaints.
He even says Canada is broken but most premiers are Conservative.
Housing, health care and education are mostly provincial responsibilities.
Don’t believe those who parrot Conservative lies. Over and over.
It’s insulting.
Bob Braan –
Except it’s not rebated for most Canadians – see my point about not being revenue neutral. Once you factor in increased costs spread through the entire economy due to inflationary pressures then it costs more for the average person. Several economic analyses have shown this.
Nothing you have said rebuts this point.
Bob Braan, many of your statements are factually inaccurate, especially on energy.
You state natural gas generation is unreliable and very expensive. That is wrong. It has a long track record of providing reliable baseload power, with lower emissions than coal or oil, and at affordable costs, globally. It is also the preferred solution for providing backup for intermittent wind and solar, as well as for peaker capacity for large power demand varations.
Stating that wind and solar with giant batteries is cheaper than fossil-fuel generation is also wrong. Grid scale batteries as the power source to maintain grid reliability/stability is costly: $436 per kWh for a 150 MW/600 MWh system according to the EIA. They only provide power for hours, not multiple days, as is needed when faced with real-world variable weather patterns, especially like in Canada. That is why utilities retain many fossil-fuel plants even as they add wind and solar to the grid mix. This is the case in the EU, where wind + solar share is highest. Note that in Germany, it’s over 40% renewables, but they also retain fossil plants for backup, and as well import substantial power from neighbors when renewables output declines. As the wind/solar share of grid generation rises, so do utility rates. EU rates run 2 to 4 times ours, even with their large government subsidies included.
So large scale wind/solar is more costly and cannot replace significant dispatchable baseload fossil-fuel power today. That is why we see big growing economies like China and India continuing to build lots of coal and gas plants, even as they add renewables. It’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
Perhaps you may consider seeking out different, more reliable sources for your energy ‘facts’.There is a lot of inaccurate information out there these days. Maybe it’s the Electrical Engineer in me, but I have learned to be very skeptical of a lot of what appears in the media today on this important topic..
Both federal and provincial Conservatives and their fanatics are telling tall tales about the carbon tax. Over and over.
It’s insulting to Canadians
They make no sense at all.
Carbon pricing is the most effective and least expensive carbon plan.
The carbon tax is rebated. And then some for most.
Don’t believe anyone.
Especially PP.
Figure it out yourself.
We paid $300 carbon tax on nat gas heat ($50 average per month for the 6 months we need the furnace) plus $300 on gasoline and got $800 back in Ontario so we are up $200.
PP is counting on those who can’t do math to blindly parrot his lies.
But lying and complaining is all he’s got.
He’s very good at it.
200 economists debunk PP’s lies with an open letter.
Search ecofiscal /2024/03/26/open-letter-ca
If you are interested in facts the following are more headlines PP and other PCs like to ignore.
1. Pierre Poilievre’s climate policy is a joke
2. Scott Moe says Saskatchewan considered carbon tax alternatives, but found them too costly
3. Conservatives are telling tall tales on carbon tax
4. Fossil fuel subsidies cost Canadians a lot more money than the carbon tax
5. From chocolate to home insurance, climate change is making life more expensive
6. Axing the controversial carbon tax ‘makes no sense’
7. Premier misinforming Ontarians about carbon tax
8.What if ‘Axe the Tax’ leaves most Canadians worse off?
9. If Canada axed its carbon tax — and rebates — this is how different households would gain or lose
10. There’s now a Bank of Canada number for carbon tax’s impact on inflation. It’s small
11. Is the carbon tax suffering from a failure to communicate?
To see the PBO say most Canadians are better off with the rebate and how the tax and rebate works watch the video “Carbon tax crash course: How it works and what it will cost you”
Of course it’s bad news in the future, 2030 not now, for the fossil fuel industry of course.
Good news for the green energy that’s replacing it.
Doing nothing about climate change, as in the Con plan, is extremely expensive and responsible for a big part of inflation.
“From chocolate to home insurance, climate change is making life more expensive.”
The PBO admitted he didn’t consider the massive cost of doing nothing and the huge increase in economic activity due to green jobs replacing fossil fuel jobs.
Even nutty Dani Smith understands the value of green energy jobs and economic activity as she stopped her devastating pause on building green energy.
Alberta actually has a lot of green energy.
Unreliable, very expensive nat gas power failed recently and caused power outages in AB.
Giant batteries would have prevented the outages as in the rest of the world.
Ontario is putting in 1.6 GW of batteries. Around 5% of demand.
Search “New Solar + Battery Price Crushes Fossil Fuels, Buries Nuclear”
Green energy + storage is now cheaper than fossil fuel power.
Storage makes wind and solar available 24/7.
The world is eliminating fossil fuels because green energy is cheaper.
Not just because it reduces the effects of climate change.
Also search “Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants | Reuters”
In fact many proposed gas plants are cancelled in favour of batteries.
“In 2023, 86% of New Power Capacity in US will come from Renewables, with a Majority of it Solar”
Like the rest of the world.
Simply because renewables are cheaper.
Not just because of climate change.
Canadian productivity is poor, and GDP per head has been declining. It has been growing in the aggregate only because of insane net migration numbers. Canada is also one of the most burdened nations in the G7 in terms of regulation and red tape.
The author of this piece is clearly a partisan Liberal, and what he won’t mention or acknowledge is that carbon taxes are not revenue neutral when you look at the economy as a whole. They will cost most people more than they will get back in the form of a government cheque. This has been confirmed by multiple sources. Nor will he acknowledge that there are other ways to incentivize green energy which don’t require another ham-fisted tax. Tax credits are a simple example.
Here again is a hard reality for Europe, energy security matters more. The energy crisis they suffered stemming from the disruption of Russian energy, especially natural gas, has taken a heavy economic toll. They turned to importing (more costly) LNG (& crude) largely from the US and the Middle East to replace it. Germany has been hit particularly hard, and their high cost of energy has damaged their domestic manufacturing competitiveness, leading to even more of it being off-shored, mostly now to the US’s benefit.
This is not a short term thing either, as some, including our PM, believe. With the Middle-East increasingly less stable, and Russia now out of the picture, Europe, where fossil fuel energy share remains over 70%, needs secure energy alternatives. Renewables won’t replace fossil-fuels nearly fast enough. The US seized on this, becoming the global leader in LNG exports, up from almost nothing in 2015. Natural gas is the transition fuel of choice from coal, and taken together, they account for over a third of the EU’s primary energy, and over half globally.
Serious energy experts forecast natural gas demand won’t peak for decades and will be needed far beyond 2050. Canada could have been there for Europe, to be part of the solution, but ideological green politics blocked it.
As for the belief that green hydrogen exports can replace the much needed LNG, nonsense. The business case for the billions needed to build out the 100’s of windmills, liquefaction, terminals, & shipping costs on our east coast will never work out. The reality is if/when a significant shift to green hydrogen occurs, decades out likely, Europe and Asia can & will produce it themselves and at a much lower cost. The huge government green hydrogen subsidies will prove to be just another big waste of tax $.
Greetings Hugh
I want to thank you for all of your wonderful insightful articles.
I find them compelling and thought provoking.
Sincerely
Martina Schroer