By Hugh Holland
- 2023 is now officially the hottest year on record. Climate Change is clearly the world’s most serious developing problem that is already affecting the cost and quality of life everywhere.
- COP 28 was a turning point. The world has agreed to pursue “an orderly and just transition from fossil fuels to the energy efficiencies and clean sources that are now available”.
- Unfortunately, our federal and most provincial Conservatives and the US Republicans have tied themselves to what is quickly becoming an untenable position, supporting the highly profitable oil and gas industry at any cost to everything else. Trump says he will “Drill, Drill, Drill”. Danielle Smith and her 100-member delegation to COP 28 tried but failed to be spoilers. Pierre Poilievre has shown no credible ideas to move in sync with the world on climate change issues.
- Alberta’s second biggest industry, grain, and beef production is already seeing reduced capacity due to climate-induced droughts. They are reducing the size of their beef cattle herds because they cannot feed them.
- The Liberals are on-side with the world’s direction on energy and have tabled credible plans to help Alberta’s oil and gas industry use their formidable expertise and resources to move into the rapidly emerging era of clean energy. Deep geothermal and hydrogen are enormous opportunities for Alberta’s biggest Industry. That is recognized by several political and industry leaders in Alberta, but not by the Conservative party at either the provincial or federal levels.
- Regardless, recent polls indicate the Conservatives are now leading. The right-wing media (Sun Media, Conrad Black’s National Post etc.) see all this and smell blood. They want it to be Liberal blood rather than the blood of their Conservative supporters. So, the right-wing media has gone to even further extremes with relentless, vicious daily personal attacks on Trudeau.
- But it is increasingly clear to informed people that the recent spikes in migration, and the cost of housing, food, and energy, are not unique to Canada. They were driven by supply chain interruptions resulting from the global pandemic, foreign wars and climate-induced droughts, floods, and severe infrastructure damage. But inflation is beginning to moderate.
- Like all of us, Trudeau has his strengths and weaknesses, but he is doing a credible job as leader, which is to assemble a team of capable ministers and then support and coordinate that team. Trudeau has an innate sense of fairness and generosity. He can fight, but he is NOT a ruthless mean-spirited person. After 8 years of Liberal government in these turbulent times, Canada ranks well above the G7 average in all areas of financial performance and human development. On the other hand, Poilievre is a one-man show, with crazy ideas about cryptocurrency etc. And he has not showcased any capable ministers to form a credible cabinet.
- Polls can change in the 22 months before the mandatory 2025 election, and the Conservatives have put themselves in a tough spot. If they weaken their untenable support for Alberta’s oil and gas industry, they will lose votes in Alberta. Conservatives may manage to lead in the popular vote, but not enough to form government. Neither the NDP, nor the Block Quebecois, nor the Greens, nor Independents will agree to a coalition with the current dogmatic Conservative leader, so the Trudeau Liberals will likely continue as government.
- Moderate Conservatives don’t trust Poilievre but out of some deep-rooted sense of loyalty cannot bring themselves to vote for Trudeau. They rationalize their position by saying they would vote Liberal if the eminently capable Mark Carney became Liberal leader. That is not likely to happen. As the UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, Carney is playing an important global role that is poised to become even more important with the outcome of COP 28. He will likely continue in his current role to lead the global financing of “an orderly and just global transition to clean energy”. The world needs his proven talent on that job.
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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Mr. Holland; excellent article, loved the point form presentation. Thank you again and again for reasoned comments, they always help me to learn.
Ignore those who don’t care about the earth, Hugh.
It seems the virus that infected so many Americans to vote for Trump/far right has crossed the border and is infecting Canadians as well.
While the earth literally burns.
Record wildfires around the world.
Drier conditions due to climate change makes a controllable wildfire uncontrollable.
Poilievre’s solution? Get out the marshmallows and make Smores.
Clean and green is now the cheapest source of power in the world.
The world is going green not just to mitigate climate change but also because it’s much cheaper.
“As the Planet Heated Up in 2023, Clean Energy Took Off”
“In 2023, 86% of New Power Capacity in US will come from Renewables, with a Majority of it Solar”
“New Solar + Battery Price Crushes Fossil Fuels, Buries Nuclear”
“Solar costs are now nearly 30 per cent lower than cheapest fossil fuel option, EY says”
Yet: “Doug Ford government wants new gas plants to boost Ontario’s electricity system”
But “This community just threw a wrench into Doug Ford’s plans for new gas plants”
Cities are stopping Ford for environmental reasons using legislation he created.
That’s funny.
Why would anyone build more expensive gas plants in Ontario when the feds require them to be shut down in 2035?
Don’t worry, Doug Ford has that covered.
“However, the companies who would build Ontario’s new gas-fired power plants have nothing to worry about: even if the feds shut them down, the Ford government is promising they’ll continue to get paid.”
Typical.
Ontario used to be 96% non-fossil fuel energy. Now we are down to 90% and dropping fast due to Dud’s many mistakes.
And in the rest of the world: “Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants | Reuters”
Proposed gas plants are being cancelled in favour of cheaper batteries.
Even Dud Ford is reversing his mistake of cancelling 750 green energy projects and wasting hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars.
Just like he’s reversed many, many of his other mistakes.
Green projects are starting up again in Ontario.
Along with 1.2 GW of storage by 2026.
Storage makes solar and wind available 24/7.
Dave, it sounds like you are saying $$$ TRUMP everything, and we shouldn’t care about our grandchildren being able to breath, and drink the water, and grow food, and shouldn’t care about coastal areas like Miami and New Orleans. and the Frazer River Delta, and many island nations that will be under water and looking for an ever shrinking list of livable place to migrate to?? It’s time to wake up. This should not be a political game. Its very, very serious stuff. We are in a war to survive and should work together like in wartime.
Thanks Bob. Just as an FYI, here are my data sources:
GDP per capita – https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSetCode=PDB_LV#
Government debt- https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt#:~:text=Government%20Debt%20in%20Canada%20averaged,source%3A%20Department%20of%20Finance%20Canada and https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD
Household debt- https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/canada/household-debt
Government size -https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cost-to-run-federal-government-increase-151b-a-year-1.6797486
LNG forecast – https://thebusinesscouncil.ca/publication/lng-canada-has-supply-to-meet-the-global-demand/#:~:text=Over%20the%20past%20two%20decades,to%20a%20study%20by%20Shell. and https://www.iea.org/news/the-energy-world-is-set-to-change-significantly-by-2030-based-on-today-s-policy-settings-alone
CO2 energy emissions data – https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
I checked the datasets again, as it was late yesterday when I finished. I re-ran my spreadsheet on GDP per capita over the 2015-2022 period, in USD, constant prices, 2015 PPP this time. Canada was the same, at 3.1% growth , but I must have picked up the wrong data points or used a different chart for the US and OECD, which are 11% and 9.4% respectively, not 8% and 5%. So by that measure, it’s an even starker difference. The resulting message though is the same, Canada is lagging. I think the rest is ok, but please feel free to check my data sources, if you like.
Here are some final thoughts on this. I remain optimistic that with a course correction, Canada can get back on track for sustainable real growth and improved prosperity and equity. I also think that with more thoughtful investment and a committed focus on upgrading, expanding and hardening infrastructure, especially our electrical power system, we can enable that growth, be much better prepared for the coming impacts of a warming climate and be better positioned for an energy transition.
As for meeting Trudeau’s emissions targets, it’s most unlikely. The investments needed and time remaining to get to the 2030 target of at least a 40% reduction from the 2005 level are totally unrealistic. I am all for a clean energy transition, but we need to do it in an achievable, rational and balanced way. The capital investments needed for the transition will be huge, likely into the trillions of $ for Canada to reach net zero by 2050, barring some unforeseen/miraculous technology breakthroughs. We must not undermine Canada’s economy in the process. Unfortunately that is the track the Trudeau government is currently on.
Dave, and Kathryn, Canada is not the only country that had a challenging 8 years. But, its worth noting that Canada and Germany are the only G7 countries with a AAA credit rating by Standards & Poor’s, along with the smaller Australia, Denmark, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, and Switzerland. That’s only 10 out of 190 countries. The credit rating is the bottom line on financial responsibility.
Canada’s emissions per capita were 20 tonnes in 2015 and were reduced by 14% to 17.2 tonnes by 2021. That compares with the global average of 5.9 tonnes per capita. No doubt, if everyone was pulling on the same oars, we could be much farther up the curve on emissions reduction. And the Liberals supported construction of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and the Coastal Gaslink pipeline to help ensure “an orderly and just transition to clean energy” by 2050 in other less fortunate countries.
But we need to be very concerned about temperatures now rising much faster than predicted only 5 years ago. The impact of that is frequent extreme flooding in coastal areas like lower BC and Nova Scotia and severe droughts in interior food producing areas like Alberta and Saskatchewan. And the impact of that will be even higher inflation of food prices and the multi-billion dollar cost of infrastructure repair.
Hugh, canada and Canadians haven’t been this bad, poor, hungry, homeless and crime rates are way up. Trudeau or the Liberals say they are focused on climate change which has fluctuated over the years even having mini ice ages, but its an excuss to add taxes. I dont see this extra carbon tax doing anything for the environment except to make it tougher on Canadians. You make disparaging remarks about the Conservatives but they dont make policies. They dont have enough seats to make a difference at this time. Canada and Canadians have had a terrible 8 years and i dont think anyone can fix the damage done by Trudeau or the moneyed people driving Trudeau.
Dave Wilkin … Nailed it! Totally agree with you and you saved me a huge amount of time laying out real data, truth and reality of current JT government & programs! I don’t get it how anyone ie Hugh .. can support the $$$ data of this current government!? Does he & or other liberals not care? The JT scandals alone need to be considered when reviewing JT’s 8 years! So many liberal plans are not reality and the impact and consequences of so many of them just get a free pass by ALL Canadian MSM! BUT .. hopefully Canada will be done with JT ..ASAP ..when JT calls an election!
Hugh, here are some counter points to consider. First, the Conservatives are not in a tough spot. Recent polls put their lead in double digits and Canada338 has them ahead by 12 points with >99% chance of winning (85% for a majority). That’s a good place to be, with momentum on your side. Climate change plans won’t change that.
Second, claiming that “Canada ranks well above the G7 average in all areas of financial performance” is somewhat suspect. Voters are asking ‘Am I better off now ‘? Answer, not much. According to OECD stats, from 2015-2022 Canada ranked 2nd last on GDP per capita change, growing at just 3% over that period vs the OECD at 5%. For comparison, the US grew by 8%. Performance on productivity (GDP per worker) is also poor with only a 2.6% improvement, compared to the OECD at 5.1%. High immigration/population growth levels are clearly masking underlying issues. Trudeau grew the federal government staff levels by 31%, far faster than the general population, which grew about 8.5% . Also under his watch, total government debt almost doubled & household debt grew by 40%, highest in the OECD. Too little focus on competitiveness, infrastructure investment and productivity, too much on spending, high immigration and bureaucracy. Further, the OECD and Canadian banks forecast Canada to continue to languish, lacking a course change.
Third, on Trudeau’s climate plan, it’s been ineffective so far, with emissions down about 5% since 2016. Carbon taxes & heavy regulation push up the cost of energy, rippling through the whole economy, undermining competitiveness and fueling inflation. Few countries outside of the energy-insecure ones (most are in Europe), have imposed them. Critically for Canada, the US doesn’t and won’t, which puts our export industries at increasing risk. As for COP28, don’t hold your breath. The resolutions passed are non-binding, and non-OECD countries (66% of global emissions and rising) will continue to push global emissions higher for years to come. If wealthy countries were as concerned as they claim to be, they would be doing far more to help developing countries and especially those with widespread energy insecurity and poverty. If Trudeau was serious about helping, he would be pushing for cleaner Canadian LNG to export to Europe, Africa and Asia to displace coal and improve energy security. The US gets it, as they ramped up LNG exports from almost nothing in 2015 to become the world’s leading exporter. Global LNG demand is expected to double again by 2040. Trudeau, in his infinite wisdom, questioned if there was a “business case” for LNG, and apparently opted instead for some vague, sketchy liquified green hydrogen export plan (from Newfoundland).
Lastly, it’s not just the “right-wing media” that are critical of the Trudeau government. Most media (when they’re being honest) are flagging the many failures, which includes not only the economic ones, but a health care crisis, increased division nationally, rising crime & addiction, foreign affairs debacles, our declining relevance on the world stage, our military decline, and of course, the endless scandals. Yes, it has been a difficult time to govern, but Canada is not managing things well, especially compared to other developed countries. We are still a great country, but we are not headed in the right direction and Canadians can see this and want a change.
Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre are focused on Canadians’ top 2 concerns today: rising cost of living and housing affordability. Trudeau is more concerned with staying in power and self image, and obsessed with some weird ideologies (including perhaps Canada becoming the first “post-national state”?). He is out of touch with mainstream Canadians and will either be pushed into resigning or suffer a crushing defeat, dragging the Liberal party down with him.