Hugh Mackenzie
Huntsville Doppler
2020 Starts with a Bang
A lot of people may not have come to grips with it yet, but 2020 has started out with a big bang and I mean that literally! I am referring to the assassination, or as the Trump White House has put it, the “taking out”, of the infamous Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, this guy was clearly a scumbag, dedicating his life to terrorism against the United States and Israel and anyone else who did not fit with his particular and very narrow Islamic views. He was a dangerous gamechanger in Middle East alliances. The world is better off without him. Many people in the United States and around the globe, will celebrate his demise as they celebrated the death of Osama Bin Laden.
There is a difference, however. Bin Laden orchestrated the attack on the United States in 2001. He started that fight that eventually led to his death. This time, to some extent, it is the other way around. The United States fired first.
No doubt, we will be debating for some time to come whether this was the right thing or the wrong thing to do. Perhaps only time will tell, but one thing is certain: U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to “take out” a leading Iranian official, on foreign soil—a man who was very popular in his own country—has stirred a very dangerous viper’s nest. Iran will respond. To fail to do so would drastically reduce their influence in the Middle East and they will not allow that, and their allies will not allow that. The Iranian leader has promised “harsh retaliation”. Inevitably, it is coming.
The United States Government knows there will be a response and they have issued a warning to their citizens at home and abroad to that effect. Large cities like New York are significantly increasing security measures in anticipation of some kind of revenge attack. Other countries, especially Israel, are ramping up their defenses. I imagine Canada is taking steps as well.
The question which should be on everyone’s mind is where is this all going to lead? There are those who believe it could advance to the brink of another World War, with Russia and China siding with Iran. A long shot to be sure, but one should remember that the First World War started with an assassination.
The cynic in me causes me to wonder about the real reason that Donald Trump has lit this tinderbox, with potential ramifications well beyond the Middle East. Was there really a clear and present danger to the United States? If so, where is the evidence for this? It was only about eight years ago that Donald Trump was wondering out loud if then-President Barack Obama was planning a war in the Middle East to boost his chances for re-election. And now, here we are less than a year away from Trump facing the electorate for another four-year mandate.
I remember, years ago, attending a service at an Episcopal church in Southern Florida a few days after George Bush the second sent troops into Iraq. The priest was relatively new to that parish and he delivered a sermon entitled “The Immorality of a Nation”. I will never forget it. He was vehemently opposed to the war and made no bones about it. As I left the church, which we attended fairly regularly, I heard a great deal of muttering from folks whom we knew to be of different political stripes. They were not happy and when we returned the following fall, that priest was gone. When it comes to war, Americans usually stand together, at least until it is over!
Donald Trump knows that Americans at heart are patriots. Little else is more important. If the United States is at war, or threatened with war, it is much less likely an incumbent president would be deposed in an election during that period of time. Trump believed that eight years ago and it is for certain that he remembers it now. As an added bonus for President Trump, with war as a prospect, whether just with Iran or on a much wider scale, impeachment of the President will fizzle like a wet candle.
So, which is it? Was this a necessary and strategic action by the United States to get rid of a dangerous enemy who posed a genuine threat to American security? Is there a plan in place for the next steps that will certainly be required when this unilateral action on the part of the United States escalates? Or was it politically motivated to gain much-needed support for the current President of the United States as a national election draws near? If so, is the risk much greater than the benefit?
The hard facts are that whatever the motivation, the game is now afoot, and it has the potential to be a deadly one. The tension between the United States and Iran is the worst it has been in almost half a century and it has real potential to broaden well beyond those borders. If ever there was a time in our current society that effective diplomacy was required, that time is now, and that brings me back to Canada.
John Ibbitson, a columnist for The Globe and Mail, had an interesting commentary in yesterday’s edition in which he says that Justin Trudeau’s handling of the Iran crisis could define his second term. He also said that Canada and the rest of the Western Alliance have been drawn into a new confrontation in the Middle East. He is right on both counts.
Although not a Liberal, I am reminded by all of this of a former prime minister, Lester B. Pearson. He won international acclaim and, if I remember correctly, a Nobel Peace Prize for extraordinary diplomacy at a time of extreme tension in global affairs. We need that again.
In some ways, Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada is between a rock and a hard place. The United States, on the one hand, is our closest neighbour and largest trading partner. On the other, there is an opportunity here for Canada to follow a historic pattern of peace-making at a time when the entire world is in a mode of tension and change in one form or another. It is times like these when society in general is at its most vulnerable. It will be interesting to see if Justin Trudeau can fill an important and much-needed diplomatic role, as did some of his predecessors, during a period when it is most desperately needed. If he can, his legacy as Prime Minister, which currently is filled with cracks, will be forever changed for the better.
I, for one, could live with that!
Hugh Mackenzie
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One further note since the Iranian regime has decided to play with fire: They apparently want to lure the U.S. into a conflict which Iran cannot possibly win. Furthermore, they are apparently trying to incite civil war between the Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites in Iraq. The Iranian religious bosses remain a collection of lunatics. By the way, most of the theocrats in Tehran are “Twelvers” who believe that if they can ignite a world war, their “Imam Mahdi” will appear. They believe that he is the Twelfth and “final” Imam to appear before the end of the world. They also believe that it is an item of devotion to try to bring it about.
Thank you Karen for some clear , correct thoughts! Sometimes I read comments posted here, shake my head and move on!!! Again, Thanks.
So true, especially when compounded with the delusional perception that ‘God is on our side!’ That’s what both sides thought in August of 1914 as the ‘civilized’ European empires stumbled into war – a war they thought would be over with by Christmas 1914 – that morphed into the horrific Great War of 1914-18, the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 in Czarist Russia, and the peace settlement of 1919, which created many of problems we have been and continue to deal with in the Middle East. Beware the unintended historical consequences from the so-called planned, orchestrated, surgical events!
Hugh,
The liberal mainstream media (unfortunately, an arm of the DNC-globalist cabal) is, as usual, entirely wrong about this and they are misleading anyone who listens to them. They do not report the facts. Here are some facts that they “forget” to mention:
1. Suleimani was a monster toward anyone among his own people who dared to protest his brutal actions. In addition, he was an international terrorist who was responsible for many, many attacks on Americans, leading to their deaths. It is quite likely that he planned and implemented the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya where four brave Americans died, including the U.S. Ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens. And there were many more attacks on American aid workers planned and carried out by Suleimani throughout the Middle East.
2. Suleimani was also responsible for many, many attacks on innocent civilians in Iraq and Syria–the brutality of which is only rivaled by attacks carried out by ISIS. Fox News is today, carrying an interview done with Dan Andros of Faithwire.com. Andros personally interviewed a man in Iraq (a Sunni Muslim) who had the misfortune to fall into the hands of Suleimani. The man said his wife was tortured to death in front of him (and these victimized women are routinely gang-raped before they are slowly put to death). The man also said that his son (who was four, at the time) was tortured when Suleimani gave the order to drill holes in his son’s legs. The victimized man took Andros to see his son, who was so utterly traumatized by the incident, that even five years later, just lay and stared off into space. This is who the “respected military man” was.
3. The unspeakable atrocities of Suleimani were so notorious that he was under a U.N. prohibition to avoid stepping outside of Iran or face the consequences that international terrorists often face. He was in Iraq when killed. He was “fair game”. Do you think he was planning a picnic for some park in Baghdad? The corrupt regime which controls Iran really has nothing to complain about (and I suspect at least some are glad that the extremely brutal Suleimani is dead). The ordinary people of Iran are undoubtedly glad he’s gone. Many died yesterday in a stampede, after being shot at by Iranian troops who were herding them into the funeral procession for Suleimani.
4. The corrupt regime of Iran will “huff and puff” about Suleimani’s righteous summary execution but, in the end will likely do nothing. They should be quaking in their boots at the thought of the swift retribution they will face if they dare to do anything. Appeasement of these brutal dictators only encourages them to plot more and more evil. President Trump was really quite patient in putting up with a number of provocations from Iran. The liberal socialists lament that we have caused the Iranians to abandon their promise to avoid pursuing the development of nuclear weapons. That is laughable. Does any rational, Middle East-knowledgeable, individual really think that the Iranian regime EVER abandoned their plans? They controlled and obfuscated the inspections to the point that most of the inspectors said that it was impossible to ascertain that they had abandoned their plans to gain nuclear weapons. Front Page magazine is a much more credible source than the liberal mainstream media on this point.
I hope I can dispel some of the ignorance I’m seeing in the comments.
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During the Obama years, the US talked Iran into a deal with several other nations to abandon their nuclear program, and were complying. Trump has now made it absolutely certain that Iran will become a nuclear power, first by breaking that deal and now by doing this.
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The assassination was not carefully thought out by calm and experienced military people. It was urged by the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, and the Vice-President, Mike Pence. They are all Evangelical Christians who believe that a period of war in the Middle East will precede the return of Jesus and the killing and sending to hell of everyone but Evangelical Christians. Pompeo has been pushing the assassination for years. (There has been a movement for years to change the USA into a “theocracy” — a religious fascist state — and I gather it saw Trump as its big opportunity. Google “Dominionist movement”.)
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Pompeo and Pence urged Trump, who is easily manipulated if you appeal to his monster ego, to assassinate Soleimani repeatedly over the week beforehand, while Esper made sure the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other sensible military advisors — the ones who knew the assassination would lead to war and felt it was a bad idea — were kept out of the loop, against all precedent.
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I’m sure Pompeo and Pence mentioned to Trump that war would help his chances at re-election.
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Note that the US’s traditional allies in Europe are disavowing the move, saying it has nothing to do with them. Even Israel is saying it was not involved or consulted.
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The best we can expect is for the US to be involved in another Middle Eastern quagmire. The worst is WWIII. You can bet that Iran is now planning another 9/11.
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Sources for all facts here available on request. The newspaper reports are from reputed sources such as the New York Times and Washington Post.
Hugh … “impeachment of the President will fizzle like a wet candle.” .. IMHO ..hell ya ..when all they have is info from the washroom halls at the DNC since 2016 and ..anything before that has been erased! Strange! .. With the state this country is in and continues to be in … JT may do something stupid ..again …like ..India ‘show and tell’, black face, support IRAN, run down Trump ..again… behind his back, support and encourage more illegal immigration, etc etc… NOTE to JT: .. look after Canada .. first ..and ..mind your own business ..at home … really ..no one cares about your feelings and emotions and all your politically correct BS! After JT’s behavior in Europe .. if he thinks the USA is going to take advice or guidance or anything from JT .. JT .. should just sit back …smoke weed and eat …his now (another disaster) edibles! The world now needs adults at the table ..not SJW’s! JT ..FIX Canada problems .. first!
Unfortunately, Justin’s only chance in that direction would be to channel his “inner-Pierre”; and other than charisma; his assets in that arena are negligible”.
Personally, I find this situation increasingly worrisome. “Taking out” Bin Laden may turn out to be, over the long reach of history,not America’s finest moment. All it did was replace one major leader with a myriad of minor leaders (previously controlled by Bin Laden) in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, etc.
Obama, who obviously had some currency in the Middle East, signed a nuclear ban agreement with Iran (obviously disproportionate, but strategically necessary): Trump has virtually torn up that agreement. And now he has assassinated their military leader; inviting responses from the entire Middle East. Iran will continue intercepting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf; Iraq, whose Shiite militia trains in Iran, will likely join in the fun; and the other Middle-East countries will await on Trump’s threat to attack cultural sites in Iran, which will constitute an act of war.
With a surgical war; initiated by machismo tweets, and orchestrated by drones; there is no “side of the angels” to occupy. All the diplomacy in the world won’t suffice.
Canada is in no position to help on this matter. There is only down side risks. Trudeau needs to stay out of it, and resist his inclinations to say dumb things in attempts be seen as cool and progressive on the world stage.
Your right Bill anyone over about 50 knows the world is getting warmer but that has been going on for some where around 10.000 years and if it wasn’t we would still be under ice. Now if we are worried about pollution that is something else but to tax carbon is not going to do anything but make us all poorer.
Hugh,
What, exactly, would you have Trudeau do to advance diplomacy at the moment?
Wirhout some novel or unique solution he will look silly or oportunistic (think Security Council seat quest). If he goes with the Iranians he will offend the west. If he supports the USA he’ll appear to be a Trump lackie. With his diplomacy foot in mouth history I’d say stay out of it for now. A better opportunity may present itself
Don’t underestimate Trump either.
Trudeau Jr. Can’t broker Peace in this Country…The World…… Priceless
Ray ,the causes of Global Warming may be up for debate , but not the fact it is happening . Not to worry though ,the future wars will not be fought over political gain or religion ,but food supply…The Haves & Have Not,.All the present world leaders will be Fertilizer !
ISIS, Baghdadi and now Soleimani. Trump is making all the tough decisions that Obama failed to. Soleimani killed hundreds of Americans and thousands from other countries in senseless terrorist attacks. Neighboring countries are celebrating his death but the left wing media is not covering that? The Dems know they should have killed him a long time ago but they did not want to rock the boat for their reelection.
Trump does not want or need a war with Iran to distract voters from impeachment. Read the transcript listen to the witnesses… impeachment is a complete joke and waste of time and Pelosi knows it. She is sitting with the articles of impeachment in her pocket now and does not know what to do. If she brings them before the Senate it will be the quickest trial in American history and a seal the deal on a second term for Trump.
There is nothing Trudeau should or can do except sit quietly and support the USA.
During the Harper years, the Canadian government broke off all diplomatic relations with Iran and closed its embassy in Tehran in September 2012. Since 2015 with the Trudeau government in power, little has changed. Today, the Government of Canada website for Iran states: “There is no resident Canadian government office in Iran. The Embassy of Canada to Turkey in Ankara has consular responsibility for Iran.”
Sadly, the world in 2020 and Canada’s position in that world has dramatically changed since December 1983 when Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau staged his dramatic and somewhat successful shuttle-diplomacy and “Peace Crusade” between East and West during a significant “freeze” in the Cold War.
An informative news clip from CBC Archives: https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/trudeaus-push-for-cold-war-peace
At lot of gloom and doom again. If nothing else maybe it will get people off the band wagon about global warming that in itself would make me happy i’m sick o hearing gloom and doom about that. As far as Iran and the U.S. fighting each other it’s been going on for years. This may bring some things to a head but as I see it there is not much we can do about it but hope for the best.
The Polish government has already come forward with such a proposal, so I believe that Mr. Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada, will not be considered. Poland is one of the few countries in Europe that has maintained very friendly relations with Iran for over 40 years. I believe, knowing the Iranian people and their mentality, that they will not go to any violence against the USA or their allies. In the near future, increased talks at government level between Iran, Russia and China can be expected.Talking about World War III makes no sense in this situation.The three countries I have mentioned will quickly develop an appropriate strategy to match the vital interests of these countries without resorting to forceful solutions.