Hugh Mackenzie
Huntsville Doppler
We are into crunch time with just a few days before the Ontario provincial election and the past week has been anything but boring for those who take an interest in what is going on around us. The final result has also become much less obvious.
Last week I wrote about this election and was surprised at the depth of interest, passion and concern by people from all sides of the political spectrum. The column received more than 50 comments on our Doppler website and almost 6,000 views on Facebook, a clear record for anything I have written over the last five years. The response I believe, is indicative of a much wider divide among Ontario voters given the stark choices they have been given when it comes to electing the next government for this province. Clearly, the knives are out as we head to the finish line.
The anyone-but-Ford movement has been in full force during the past week and there are signs that it is working. It almost seemed choreographed. First, there was an editorial in the Toronto Star, praising Kathleen Wynne, almost giving her martyr status and blaming Ontarians for treating her so unfairly. This was followed a few days later with another editorial by the same newspaper that basically said, forget Wynne, Ford must be stopped at all costs, support the NDP and ignore their flaws.
Then yesterday, something happened that, to the best of my knowledge, has never been seen before in the history of Canadian politics. A seated Premier conceded defeat in an election that has not yet taken place! It was an astonishing move and perhaps a clever strategy. It was clearly designed to throw a wrench into whatever momentum the Conservatives and NDP were enjoying. It was a plea for a minority government in which the Liberals, finishing in last place, would hold the balance of power, once again, effectively calling the shots in Ontario.
At least at the outset, this strategy appears to be having an effect. Prior to Wynne’s announcement yesterday, the Conservatives had a marginal lead in the popular vote over the NDP and with regional distribution a comfortable forecast for a majority government. In the past 24 hours, the NDP have stayed pretty much the same while the Conservatives have lost 1.4 per cent of the popular vote and the Liberals have gained almost exactly the same number. This indicates that some Liberals who were planning to vote Conservative have returned to the Liberal fold. It also means the NDP have regained a slight lead in the popular vote and the Tories are in danger of losing or not winning some ridings where the margin between the parties is less than 2 per cent. This could affect their ability to form a majority government.
Today, of course, following the Wynne strategy, some media outlets are screaming for a minority government, effectively attempting to stop the Conservatives from governing. While some people believe that minority governments can be effective, the hard fact is that in the polarized climate of politics that currently exists, there is really no such thing. If the Conservatives do not win a majority of seats in the legislature, they will not be allowed to govern beyond a Throne Speech. If the NDP do not win a majority, they will be allowed to govern because the Liberals will support them at least until they get their own act together enough to risk another election. No matter what they called it, it would effectively be a coalition.
My choice to vote Conservative in this election was not based on personalities. If it was, I would probably have voted in a different way. I fundamentally believe in less rather than more government. I also truly believe that failure to tackle our massive debt problem will eventually and inexorably lead to the government’s inability to provide essential services, especially to those who need it most.
Mike Wieler, I think he is from Huntsville, said this on Facebook. “I personally think Conservatives are the best to clean up the books. As a business owner I cannot lose money year after year and stay open.” To me, that says it in a nutshell.
I also feel it is important to have respect for our institutions. It is therefore interesting to note that it is NDP candidates, not Conservative ones, that would ban the national anthem at sports events, refuse to wear a poppy on Remembrance Day, or carry a sign effectively telling police to perform a sexually impossible act!
But all of that is just where I come from.
In my view, voting, no matter your political leanings, is a very important civic duty. In my family we have folks who support all three of the major political parties. I am proud of that. I respect their views as I hope they respect mine. It is, I believe, this very divergence of views and the debates and discussions that result that ultimately ensures a strong society.
No matter what happens on June 7, that is all that really matters.
Hugh Mackenzie
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I also spoke at length to Erin, and agree she is a very well spoken advocate for the NDP position. Unfortunately it happens to be one I strongly disagree with. She parrots her leaders position that “the rich will just have to pay more” to cover the expenses related to her promises, such as “free” child care, “free” tuition, “free” dental care, “free” pharmacare, etc. etc. When you look at the revenue potential from her statements on who the rich are and what they will pay, it adds up to a few million while the promises add up to a few BILLION. Guess where the balance would come from? Get ready for a lot of tax increases on those who are NOT “rich” or a huge increase in the deficit, both things the NDP are really, really good at doing. Add in the increase in corporate taxes (which having been in business I know will just be passed on to consumers as price increases) and the middle guy and the little guy will just be squeezed even more. In addition, the NDP position of not EVER having back-to-work legislation is giving a blank check to all the unions to just stay on strike until the employer caves in – see the York University strike for how that works!
While Doug Ford is certainly not my choice as a great leader, at least the PC philosophy of smaller government (read fiscal responsibility) has merit. Since we have had 15 years of giving the farm away and increasing the size of government, change to me means real change – not increasing the things that are wrong about the current situation.
Finally, all the talk of the lack of a platform for the PC’s is so much hot air. When was the last time a party (any party) implemented the full program they published during an election campaign? Frankly, I do not believe any of them when they publish a platform – rather look at the overall philosophy of the party and hope they can implement policies and legislation that reflect those philosophies.
Whatever you believe, just be sure to vote. Then you can complain all you want after the election if you are not happy.
Very well written, Hugh. For the future of our province I seriously hope that people pay very close attention to your voting advise.
Agree 150% on your urging everyone to vote, Hugh, and also your pride in tolerance of different political views. Voting really is a “use it or lose it” thing… if the people don’t speak up and demand to be heard, crooks and dictators (usually the same thing) will take over. Divisive politics, slander politics, the politics of personal destruction weaken a nation from within, creating schisms that can be used by a nation’s enemies to destroy it.
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Just one short hot take on who to vote for: it is very true all three are promising spending. From what I have learned from history: when the NDP promises spending, you can 100% believe it. When Liberals promise spending, you can somewhat sort of kid of believe it. When Tories promise spending, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you 🙂 . Each party plays to its supporters and Tory supporters prefer corporate power over government power.
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You can use this little guide to inform your vote, whichever way you think is right.
The thought of a minority government in Ontario is a scary one indeed. There have been several successful federal minority governments; the obvious difference being that the NDP was generally the king-maker, and provided a superior counter-balancing conscience to the excesses of the minority party. In Ontario, with the Grits calling the shots, how are we to lower our annual deficit and our forever debt?
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And why so little consideration of our local candidates? They are the only ones to whom we will have access after the election. Norm Miller has been a competent, well-liked MPP for several years; but with the exception of the hospital crisis, have we ever heard much from him between elections? I’m not a great believer in change for the sake of change; but if you had ever conversed in depth with Erin Horvath (as I have), you would realize what an intelligent, articulate lady she is. If you have been reading The Doppler, it was also patently obvious that her answers were the most fulsome and thoughtful. Just because your great-great grandfather voted Tory, doesn’t mean that it’s in your DNA? Please give all candidates careful consideration on June, 7.
No problem, Jim.
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Families with sick kids:
White House requests cuts to children’s health insurance funding
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/08/politics/white-house-chip-funding/index.html
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Poverty-stricken families:
Trump administration’s plan to revamp food-stamp program is ‘a step backwards,’ state administrators complain
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-trump-food-stamp-harvest-box-20180312-story.html
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Farm families:
Import Tariffs on China Could Spell Trouble for North Dakota Farmers
http://www.kvrr.com/2018/03/23/import-tariffs-north-dakota-farmers/
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Hurricane-stricken families:
Democrats call for investigation into Hurricane Maria’s Puerto Rico death toll
https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-call-investigation-hurricane-marias-puerto-rico-death-toll-213924050.html
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Families fleeing persecution
A Moral and Legal Abomination: The government has offered no substantive legal justification for the Trump administration’s policy of indefinitely separating children from their parents at the border
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/trumps-child-separation-policy-is-a-moral-and-constitutional-abomination.html
(I think you’d like to say, Jim, that they’re not American so they don’t matter. They are human beings, Jim. Whomever has power over them is responsible for their fate.)
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There, a short list. With more time I could make it much longer. You’re welcome. But instead let’s look at the kind of families Trump *does* support:
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His own:
Nepotism and corruption: the handmaidens of Trump’s presidency
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/06/nepotism-corruption-handmaiden-trump-presidency
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The mob:
History of Trump-Mafia connections from the immigration to the USA of Trump’s grandfather, Friedrich Drumpf. Read the whole Twitter thread and the sources.
https://twitter.com/LincolnsBible/status/1003626336466817030
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You maybe want to quit using words like “malarkey” and “unsupported by facts” unless you’re talking about what the Trump crime family and their associates themselves say, Jim.
Excellent analysis, Hugh. Politics should never be a personality contest. Nor should policy be based on what the lunatic fringe says about anything–the NDP is, unfortunately, pulled in the direction of the radicals among them. Conservative policy is primarily about sound fiscal policy and, should they be granted the ability to govern, we should be in much better shape in a few years.
I would love to see a list, even a short one, of the ways the Trump administration has “negatively affected families” in the US. It is total fiction and “false news”.
This assertion, unsupported by facts, is so typcal of the malarkey spewed by the liberal left.
Canadians have been affected by this constant refrain as well.
Ford is accused of similar crimes. He hasn’t even taken office!
This is why I love election campaigns: they are organic and fluid and develop a life of their own! Ten days ago the PC’s under Doug Ford were a shoe-in for a strong majority with the NDP holding middle ground and the Libs down in the basement! Now it is anybody’s guess what the outcome of this election will be-I will leave predictions to wiser folks than myself! I just urge all of my fellow citizens to exercise their democratic right AND responsibility to vote-it is a privilege that most people on this globe do not possess!
Yes, Ontario has lived through a number divisive and polarized “crunch times” in electoral politics over the years – including a situation when a sitting premier admitted publicly that his political shelf-time had expired. One such case was during the aftermath of the Great War – with all the resulting social trauma, economic and political turmoil – when the good citizens of Ontario in 1919 elected a minority UFO-Labour “people’s government” under the unknown leadership of Ernest C. Drury. During its term in office, the “people’s government” legislated many “progressive” measures including allowances for widows and children, a minimum wage for women in the workplace, and a grant for two young medical researchers, Drs. Frederick Banting and Charles Best, who later discovered insulin. But by the end of its term in 1923 and for a variety of reasons, the Drury government had successfully alienated many of its supporters, especially around the ongoing issue of temperance and the continuing restrictions of prohibition imposed during the war (the “sex-ed” social issue of the 1920s). In the election of 1923, the UFO-Labour “people’s government” was ushered into the “dustbin of history.” The initials UFO stand for the United Farmers of Ontario.
My dilemma still continues as I approach Thursday. I have spent time in the US and I have see how families have been affected by the Trump administration, (a business man with a vision??). I am still waiting to see a plan from Mr. Ford. I prefer this title to “Ford Nation” or Ford Family (very scary).
All candidates have promised us a great deal of FREE programs – seems to me it is like the current government spend – spend -spend.
As for the hospital Don’t hold your breath….. we need to advance the technology, safety and prevention of infection but the list for hospitals in Ontario with the same problem is very long and large metropolitan areas with large populations will win that day. I agree that 10% hallway medicine is terrible but some hospitals in southern
Starting to think the DEVIL you know might be a better choice than the unknow.
Very concerned we will become the laughing stock of the nation if the “family personality behavior ” becomes Premier.
Thursday evening will make for a reasonable interesting evening – think I would prefer hockey
Hugh we could debate for hours