We are living in tough times these days and many signs point to a prediction that it is going to get tougher.
Inflation is higher than it has been for decades, gas prices are through the roof, and the cost of almost everything else is rising dramatically.
I thought one meme I noticed on Facebook this morning summed it up rather well.
“My gas tank bill is starting to look like a grocery bill and my grocery bill is starting to look like a Costco bill and my Costco bill is starting to look like a mortgage payment and I don’t know how people are affording to live right now.”
On top of that, the COVID-19 pandemic has been hard, in one way or another, on most people, whether it be illness, losing loved ones, lifestyle restrictions, increased caregiving, financial difficulties, or isolation. Everyone took a hit, somewhere.
Globally there is a lack of stability as well with the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine and the real threat of a larger war, a much higher degree of civil unrest in the United States, and the world- wide challenges with the supply chain.
No wonder there is a mood of unhappiness and worry in Canada that in some ways has manifested into an undercurrent of hate and anger. Indeed, there are signs that we will see a repeat this summer of the so-called Freedom convoys returning to Ottawa. Exactly what we don’t need.
Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Bob Rae, in recent, almost Churchillian remarks, put it this way: “A truck is not a speech. A horn is not a voice. An occupation is not a protest. A blockade is not freedom, it blocks liberty for all. A demand to overthrow a government is not a dialogue. The expression of hatred is not a difference of opinion. A lie is not the truth.”
Yet the hard truth, in my view, is that in many ways that is where we are now and that must change. The real question then is how do we reverse this? My answer to that is that it’s a matter of leadership. It is easy for the federal government to blame others for serious issues facing Canadians right now. Although there is a degree of truth in that—the pandemic has been a global problem, inflation is global, and rising conflict is global—in finding ways to address these issues in Canada, the buck stops here.
As an example, the rising cost of gasoline is generally blamed on the war in Ukraine. That is only partly true. There are other sources of oil and gas that can and, given current circumstances, should be tapped here in Canada as well.
A recent check of gas prices in the United States, taking the difference in the value of our dollar into account, revealed it was more than 50 cents cheaper per litre than in Canada. One should be asking why. The answer could be that the government gains tax revenue when gas prices increase. When in difficult times, real leadership, I believe, is not in increasing revenue for the government but rather in taking measures to reduce the cost of living for ordinary citizens. Why not at least a temporary reduction in gas taxes, the HST, and yes, even the plentiful “sin” taxes? True, that would reduce revenues for government to spend on their pet projects, but it would also ease the burden and pressure on Canadians when times are tough.
In my view, we have weak leadership at the federal level in Ottawa. I include all three major parties in that statement. Jagmeet Singh and the NDP think playing Robin Hood will solve all the problems in the country. The Conservatives are currently moving too far to the right and the Liberals are trying too hard to be all things to all people. That is just not possible. But the buck really does stop with the government and not with opposition parties. That is where Canadians need really strong, positive, and effective leadership right now. I seriously question whether we are getting it.
Justin Trudeau is clearly heading toward his best before date, and it is starting to show. There are also those in his Cabinet who are chomping at the bit to take his place. The good news is that three of these are women! But that could be three years from now. As a journalist and former diplomat Norman Spector said recently, “While the Prime Minister is undoubtedly pondering leaving, the entire government seems incapable of any initiative. As if absolutely everything in Ottawa is on autopilot.” And therein lies the rub.
Many Canadians are hurting right now and worrying about the future. One poll today indicated that a quarter of Canadian homeowners fear that they will have to sell their homes if interest rates continue to rise.
Unless Prime Minister Trudeau wants to leave now, he needs to step up to the plate. He needs to give Canadians hope and he needs to give them relief. He needs to demonstrate how he and his government have our backs, instead of just saying so and blaming others for the problems we face. That would ease the frustration and anger of Canadians and mute the effect of further “freedom” convoys, conspiracy theories, and civil disobedience.
For the well-being of Canada, we had better hope that Prime Minister Trudeau can pull that off. We simply can’t wait three more years.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Dave Wilkin: Maybe we have run this topic far enough, but betting the farm on 10% of the economy and forgetting we have another 90%, is not leadership, and certainly not leadership with foresight.
Few Canadian refineries can actually process the ‘dilbit’ from our ‘tar sands’. Show me the logic of selling cheap, the asphalt goo we can’t use, so we can buy expensive oil we can handle. This is called a plan?
The Orinoco region has vast quantities of ‘oil sand’, possibly a greater reserve than Canada. It has a lot of advantages over this, high carbon crap we sell. And they don’t have to try and build a pipeline across territory where no one wants it.
When and if the politics and security of the region becomes stabilized, can anyone guarantee that our product won’t be abandon. Too dirty. Too expensive. Too far from anywhere. We may not want to see the economy wrecked, but the environment counts for nothing? Supposedly, we will make a lot of money from this project, but never enough to clean up the mess. There is no profit if you clean up the mess. If we could clean it up.
Imagine into the future, the rivers dry, the glaciers gone, the atmosphere beyond recovery ( well beyond my being here), trying to explain to the future why this has come to be.
Telling anyone left, that at one point in time, man actually thought about cleaning up his act.
But it was going to be too expensive.
Allen, I want to see a transition to clean energy. I don’t want to see it recklessly tank the economy in the process. O&G drives almost 10% of Canadian GDP. All Cdn exports to the US would quickly be replaced with less clean/secure foreign energy.
Europe and the Ukraine war has shown what happens when the green transition is badly planned and energy security is botched. Canadians can now see that very clearly..
The cost and implications are so enormous to transition to no fossil fuels. For Canada easily many trillions of $. Globally its 50 to 100 times that. The implications for so many of the needed key metals and materials means growth in supplies 2X to well over 20x in some cases. So many of them reside in developing countries, many not friendly to the west (e.g. China, Russia) and certainly no ESG there.
Not going to happen. Fossil fuels are going to be around for a long long time. That’s the hard reality of it. CCUS is needed, big time.
Dave Wilkin: Check ‘World’s Dirtiest Oil’ and you come up with tar sand oil. It is found in a variety of places, including California, but Canada is #1. A variety of publications by Sierra Club, Wall Street Journal, National Geographic and others have decried the disaster being inflicted on the Athabaska region.
If I use your figures, waving a Canadian flag and chanting “We’re # 4. We’re #4” still doesn’t sit well with me. And saying we are making great money selling this dirty s#*! doesn’t make it any better.
A good number of companies are bailing on their Athabaska enterprises because of the environmental impact. Chevron is gone and Exxon Mobil is claiming losses. There are even financial institutions pledging to stop funding or insuring oil sand ventures.
I’m sure there will be Canadian companies, maybe others who will step in to prolong the devastation, likely with Canadian government backing. They don’t have any other choice if they want to produce and sell this stuff.
And then there are the tailing ponds; extensive enough they say, that they are visible from space. There is no existing method or technology to clean this toxic stew of what once was water. If there was a way, it would likely cost what the companies and the government call ‘profit’.
Remember the outcry when some birds made the news by landing on one of these ‘lakes’. It still happens but it is old news. Not worth the headline today. Just dead birds.
There is some work being done to extract element metals from the mess. They have about 1.5 trillion liters of ‘mess’ to sort through. Maybe they will find something.
Since there is no way to clean the water, the government is now formulating a plan for releasing this toxic soup into the watershed. The river itself, Lake Athabaska, the Slave River, Great Slave Lake, the Mckenzie River, the Mckenzie Delta, the Beaufort Sea and eventually the Arctic Ocean will all get a dose of this made in Canada poison. Great plan eh!!
But certainly you know all this. Suggesting I check my info is a bit pretentious maybe? But it seems any figures can be spun as can viewpoints. Guess we just have to disagree on the purity of Canadian oil and government intentions.
We view this fiasco (my opinion) through different coloured glasses.
Allen here are some important facts for you. First, a primary reason Canadian crude is discounted is that all most all of it goes to the US, which puts Canadian crude at a large competitive disadvantage, placing downward pressure on price. Second, although Canadian heavy oil has excellent marketability in the US Gulf Coast, the pipeline network is limited. That forces barrels onto rail cars and drives up the price discounts.
As for Canada having the “dirtiest oil in the world”, its just not true. A new study has confirmed this ranking for the worst offenders: #1 Turkmenistan’s South Caspian basin, #2 Permian Basin in West Texas #3, Orinoco Belt, Venezuela.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/world-s-dirtiest-oil-and-gas-fields-are-in-russia-turkmenistan-and-texas
As for profitability, the breakeven price for new Canadian oil sands projects ranges between $38 US and $58 US Brent pricing. For existing producing sites, its much lower. At today’s Brent prices well above $110,US, Canadian oil is hugely profitable.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/newsletters/EandP/ep-november-2020/
The future price of crude is uncertain, but given today’s geopolitical instability, supply shortfalls and rising demand, the outlook for the foreseeable future is for sustained higher oil prices. Good news for Alberta, and for Canada.
May I suggest you should do your research before commenting on Canadian energy.
Hugh Mackenzie: You really stirred up a storm with this topic, eh? Like, yawn. Our last election (!) said it all. How many really believe or care what these pompous folks (premiers/prime ministers) say anymore? Our democracies are crumbling from lack of leadership; or are there just too many facets on the jewel to keep polished any more?
People seem to expect government to supply everything, but government fails to point out that you should be doing somethings for yourself. Such an observation could get you unelected. Guess that is old school.
Hugh Holland and Brian Tapley pointed up a few observations and here are a few of my own.
We have a federal program hitched to the marketing of the dirtiest oil in the world; discounted from world prices because it is costly to produce, ship, and refine. Now, some even believe it will not be profitable.
Our provincial program calls for paving over wetlands and greenspace, which is bad enough, but it also means we are losing around 300 acres of farmland daily. Mr. Ford believes this is a good idea!
I think both these schemes are misguided and short-sighted. Can all their high priced help not do better? When you can’t eat and can’t breathe, will you have much faith in the government that got you into such a position?
The American system convulsed, producing an attack on their government and we live right next door. In Canada though, should someone design to seize power, I imagine they would do it in late January. It might be missed, with people on vacation, or wintering south of the border, and the remainder not interested. And it would be cold outside.
Would we fight for our ‘freedoms’ as in the past? “Give us liberty or give us death!” Today that might just mean that some are easier to satisfy than others.
People expect ‘freedoms’ and ‘entitlements’, but don’t seem to feel they should be earned.
We need a leader that would point out that you have to do somethings for yourself..
Wonder why there is a general distrust of government? Apathy at the polls?
Ever ask a simple question of a goverment official?
Ever get a straight answer in a meaningful time period?
Thought so!
Why would you trust an official who first does not respond and second does not answer your question if and when they do respond. They usually start off with “as you may be aware” and go off on a tangent from there with often little reference to your original query. One thing you can be sure of is that “you were probably not aware” to start with and ultimately they will somehow blame the “other party” for your woes.
We sit on more oil in western Canada than the Arabs have. Why can’t we refine some of it for ourselves?
Sure we need to try to reduce consumption and cut back on emissions but maybe someone can convince the auto companies that 400 HP diesels in three tons of truck to move one person to and from work or the LCBO is perhaps not the way to go?
And yes that pandemic thing hit us all hard. I have not been on a flight to anywhere, or even inside a restaurant since Feb of 2020. I’d like to go but then I’d like to stay alive too and just because a bunch of people have decided that “they are done with Covid” the unfortunate fact is that “Covid is not yet done with us”.
And the other thing to note is that emergency relief funding that we all, or most of us, got back a year or so ago; at the start of the pandemic. Well, it is just about equal to the taxes applied at the end of that year. An almost magically amazing coincidence if there ever was one.
Maybe the rising indigenous leaders will save us? I doubt they would do any worse or better than our current leaders (Trump excepted of course as he is not actually a “leader”. He is somewhat worse than a poorly educated buffoon but he is dangerous and should be locked up for the illegal things he has done.)
To actually combat and gain control of climate change we need like Mr. Holland says, to first recognize the problem. Then we need world wide call to action and that action actually needs to happen and be of the magnitude that the allies used to win world war II.It needs to be sustained for decades or forever and I see no sign of this happening. Society does not like the look of this task. It is more fun to shine the new car, clean our guns, cruise the net on our smart phone or build another trophy size home or cottage that is totally unsustainable and push this job off to the next generation.
In many parts of the world it is more pressing to try to find enough food to eat and a place to sleep so it is not going to be an easy job.
Finally, Siri will not marry me (I asked) and this is sad as she sounds otherwise to be a great entity. Here I thought she could help us out of this mess.
Hugh, the first step in solving a problem is to admit we have one. Most of today’s national and international problems require collective solutions. Too many conservative leaders have turned to populism that discourages collective solutions. They tell people two things: a) Their problems are all caused by somebody else, and b) They should have the “FREEDOM” to do whatever the hell they want, regardless of the impact on the collective good. Donald Trump was the master at telling people that all US problems were caused by Mexico, Canada, China, etc. when in fact they were mostly self-inflicted.
It used to be that people would follow the leadership of elected governments. For example, during the 1973 Arab Israeli war, the Arab states imposed an oil embargo that quickly quadrupled the price of oil. US Republicans and Canadian Liberals both encouraged people to cancel non-essential travel and reduced speed limits which immediately and dramatically conserved fuel for essential purposes. Putin’s war is creating a similar situation today, but just try telling people that they should consider driving less or slower, postponing the fight to Disneyland, or postponing the purchase of a new $1,000 cell phone so they might better absorb the impact of gas prices. Today, too many are obsessed with excessive and unrealistic “FREEDOM”.
Responsible governments are striving to continue making progress on the biggest longer-term problems like climate change, while at the same time managing a staggering list of more recent problems including evolving and elusive public health problems, ongoing conflicts resulting in increased mass-migration that create housing shortages, and now Putin’s pointless war on Ukraine. Let’s give credit where credit is due. The facts suggest the Trudeau government is doing as well as any other. Who is doing better?
Well said Hugh
Things are bleak, but as Hugh says fear and anger will not be our friends. With humour, kindness, and gratefulness for the friendship we can give and grow in our communities, there will be solutions and comfort. This is the adaptive strength of humans, not politicians’ gamesmanship.
What you are saying Hugh is no matter who is in charge , Canada loses?
It’s just a game to politicians. A childish power struggle!
As long as we don’t elect a Donald, we just might survive?