Hopefully hospital task force is aware of the Muskoka trend toward an older population

By Patrick Flanagan

Huntsville Doppler reported that the Capital Plan Development Task Force ‘heard that Muskoka’s population growth and aging are less than the provincial averages’. When I read a statement like that, my instinctive reaction is to ask whether it is correct. Here is what I found in census data published by Statistics Canada.

Population Growth
The population of Muskoka grew from 58,050 in 2011 to 60,600 in 2016, an increase of about 4.4 per cent. The population of Ontario grew from 12,851,820 in 2011 to 13,448,490 in 2016, an increase of about 4.6 per cent. So it is true that Muskoka’s population growth has been below the provincial average, but not by much. To achieve the same rate of growth as Ontario, Muskoka would have needed an additional 145 people by 2016.

Age Distribution
This chart shows the age distribution in 2016 of the population of Muskoka (the blue bars), as compared to Ontario as a whole (the yellow line).
Clearly, Muskoka has an older population than the rest of the province. That is, Muskoka has a lower percentage in each of the younger age groups, and a higher percentage in each of the age groups over 50.

Population Aging
It is instructive to see how the age distribution has changed over time. By comparing the 2016 census results with those from 2011, we can obtain some further insights. The following chart shows, for Ontario as a whole, the number of people in each age group in 2016 (the blue bars) and the corresponding number taken from the next younger age group in the 2011 census (the orange bars). For example, the orange bar for age 15 to 19 shows the number of people who were 10 to 14 in the previous census. In other words, the orange bar for each age group represents the number of people that would be in that age group in 2016 if there were no migration into or out of Ontario, and no population losses due to death.

The blue bar for the 0 to 4 age group is slightly lower than the orange bar for the 5 to 9 age group, reflecting a small decline in the number of births in recent years.

The difference between the blue bar and the orange bar for each of the other age groups reflects two factors: net migration into Ontario and deaths. This chart shows that at the younger ages, there was noticeable net in-migration between 2011 and 2016. Above age 55, the actual number in each age group is lower than the “expected” number, presumably because the effect of deaths becomes more significant than migration at those ages.

Here is the corresponding chart for Muskoka:

This chart generally follows the Ontario-wide pattern, with two noticeable exceptions:

1. Unlike Ontario, Muskoka experienced net out-migration in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups. It should be noted that the same result has shown up consistently in previous censuses.
2. Compared to Ontario, Muskoka had a significantly higher net in-migration of people in their 50s and 60s.

Both exceptions are consistent with anecdotal evidence about young people leaving the area for education or job opportunities, and older people moving into Muskoka to enjoy their retirement. This trend might not last, but if Muskoka continues to have lower growth at the young adult ages, and higher growth at the “young senior” ages, it will have more significant aging than Ontario as a whole.

It is not clear to me that these unique features of the Muskoka population are fully reflected in the Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections that were provided to the Capital Plan Development Task Force. Let’s hope that the task force takes them into consideration in its deliberations.

Patrick Flanagan is a retired actuary, currently enjoying life in the Huntsville area.

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