{"id":85359,"date":"2020-05-19T17:00:46","date_gmt":"2020-05-19T21:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=85359"},"modified":"2020-05-19T17:03:22","modified_gmt":"2020-05-19T21:03:22","slug":"top-ten-learnings-thus-far-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-commentary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/top-ten-learnings-thus-far-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-commentary\/","title":{"rendered":"Top ten learnings (thus far) from the COVID-19 pandemic | Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>By Ross Maund and Dave Wilkin<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The COVID-19 pandemic, part two of three: top ten learnings (thus far) <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In this part two of our <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/what-will-be-the-economic-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-commentary\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pandemic article<\/a><\/span> we share our top ten learnings from the pandemic thus far and provide some observations on changes post-COVID-19.<\/p>\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 14px;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45658\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n<p>With more surprises yet to come, many things are becoming clearer and herein is our list of the top ten learnings:<\/p>\n<p><strong>10. Understanding valid <\/strong><strong>data matters<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The virus is most deadly to the elderly and people with compromised health issues. COVID deaths in Canada: <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/content\/dam\/phac-aspc\/documents\/services\/diseases\/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection\/surv-covid19-epi-update-eng.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">95 per cent are over 60<\/a>,<\/span> <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/article-long-term-care-connected-to-79-per-cent-of-covid-19-deaths-in-canada\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">79 per cent in long-term care (LTC) homes<\/a><\/span> , <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/content\/dam\/phac-aspc\/documents\/services\/diseases\/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection\/surv-covid19-epi-update-eng.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">74 per cent of all hospitalizations had pre-existing health conditions<\/a><\/span>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/content\/dam\/phac-aspc\/documents\/services\/diseases\/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection\/surv-covid19-epi-update-eng.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Deaths under 20 yrs. old: zero, under 40: twelve<\/span>.<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Variations are significant within countries and regions: The US\u2019s New York City hot-zone (~100km radius) <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/us\/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">has over half of all US COVID deaths<\/a><\/span>. This same country hot-zone pattern repeats globally: Canada (Montreal), UK (London), Italy (Milan), France (Paris), Belgium (Brussels) and, most recently, Russia (Moscow). Regional specific data is essential in understanding and managing virus outcomes.<\/li>\n<li>The actual infection rate may have been much higher, <span style=\"color: #000000;\">potentially 10-fold in the hardest-hit regions.<\/span> <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/antibody-tests-support-whats-been-obvious-covid-19-is-much-more-lethal-than-flu\/2020\/04\/28\/2fc215d8-87f7-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">As new antibody testing becomes widely available, this will become clearer<\/a><\/span>. If true, this means the death rate\/case could be much lower, but <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthline.com\/health-news\/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">spread rate higher<\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n<li>A climate correlation is evident. <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Warmer global regions<\/span> are far less impacted by the virus, albeit other factors, especially testing level differences, are also likely at play.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a style=\"color: #000000; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.undp.org\/content\/undp\/en\/home\/news-centre\/news\/2020\/COVID19_Crisis_in_developing_countries_threatens_devastate_economies.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">UN-issued warning of a looming crisis in developing countries<\/a><\/span> appears to have been highly overstated despite the virus\u2019s high-velocity spread rate.<\/span><\/li>\n<li>Ontario has \u201cflattened the curve\u201d. Overall COVID-19 hospitalisations and ICU rates now sit at around <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.towhey.com\/archives\/2660\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">10 per cent of total hospital capacity<\/a><\/span>. A <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/files.ontario.ca\/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-05-12.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">downward hospitalization trend continues<\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> Table showing the vast differences in global regions, countries and city areas:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-85589\" src=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2020\/05\/COVID-19-global-comparisons-May-16-Maund-and-Wilkin.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/COVID-19-global-comparisons-May-16-Maund-and-Wilkin-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/COVID-19-global-comparisons-May-16-Maund-and-Wilkin-630x426.jpg 630w, https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2020\/05\/COVID-19-global-comparisons-May-16-Maund-and-Wilkin.jpg 749w\" alt=\"\" width=\"749\" height=\"507\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>* If Muskoka had a population of greater than one million, the rate of confirmed cases per million would be 284 and the deaths per million would be 15.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>9. China<\/strong><\/span><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2019s untrustworthy reporting:<\/span> <\/strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/5814313\/china-denies-hiding-coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">They hid the truth on the risks from the very beginning<\/a><\/span><u>.<\/u> China was not publicly forthright, silencing doctors and citizens, destroying records, and exclusively communicating only through state-run media and social media propaganda. While China shuttered huge numbers of residents in their homes, they appear to have deliberately manipulated facts and under-reported statistics, allowing the virus to spread beyond Wuhan and became global. Not only did China manipulate reporting but they also <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/13\/business\/masks-china-coronavirus.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">vacuumed up vast amounts of PPE<\/a><\/span> (<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/article-ottawa-faces-criticism-for-sending-16-tonnes-of-personal-protective\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">including tragically 16 tons shipped from Canada in February<\/a><\/span>) and <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/world-nation\/story\/2020-04-10\/china-beijing-supply-world-coronavirus-fight-quality-control\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">exported many faulty medical products, further risking lives around the world<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>8. Trust issues with World Health Organization (WHO) revealed: <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Demonstrated uncalled for support of China, largely praising them and not working objectively and more independently in assessing the early COVID-19 cases. They followed China\u2019s insistence of low risk beyond China far too long. The <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2020\/04\/world-health-organization-blame-pandemic-coronavirus\/609820\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised and defended China<\/a><\/span>, even suggesting<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-52230833\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> the Taiwanese were anti-China racists<\/a><\/span>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/news\/2020\/apr\/10\/world-health-organization-who-v-coronavirus-why-it-cant-handle-pandemic\">Failures included<\/a>: ignoring the obvious person-to-person transmission early on, discouraged border actions, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/04\/countries-wearing-face-masks-compulsory-200423094510867.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">down-played facemasks value for citizens<\/a><\/span>, delayed announcing a global emergency and slow to acknowledge a pandemic &#8211; all of which facilitated the virus\u2019s spread world-wide.<\/p>\n<p><strong>7. Lack of preparedness: <\/strong>Despite <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/pursuit.unimelb.edu.au\/articles\/the-lessons-from-past-pandemics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">past pandemics\/epidemics<\/a><\/span> (SARS, H1N1, Ebola), developed countries were unprepared for this pandemic. Caught by insufficient emergency medical\/equipment stockpiles in tandem with incomplete and inconsistent government emergency protocols and structures in place, hampering a timely and effective response. Strategically, developed countries learned too late that much of their medical supply sector was China-centric.<\/p>\n<p><strong>6. Government leadership (<\/strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/covid-19-silent-spreaders-1.5520006\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dr. Tam included<\/a><\/span><strong>) surrounded by controversy:  <\/strong>Not questioning the WHO\u2019s <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/opinion\/article-dr-tams-about-face-on-masks-damages-trust-at-a-crucial-time\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">faulty directives<\/a><\/span> and lack of independence led to crucial delays and missteps, ultimately leading to increased illness, suffering and deaths. Tragically the most vulnerable community found in long-term care were left highly exposed, despite the many early indicators emerging from Europe\u2019s worst-hit countries&#8217; struggle with COVID-19. Canada too should have been more independent of preconceived influences of China and the WHO.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. A crisis <\/strong><strong>not<\/strong> <strong>void of partisanship:<\/strong> Canada\u2019s federal government initially attempted early power grab (emergency powers bill, side-stepping democratic parliamentary oversight through unprecedented powers extending late into 2021) was inappropriate, appearing as a big legislative overstep. The marketing-styled announcements of hundreds of billions of dollars in spending through daily orchestrated media events were distinctly opposite to the more credible 2007\/8 financial crisis federal management response by Carney, Harper and Flaherty. Some partisanship seems pretty obvious, such as the $2.45 billion oil and gas federal grants and loans tied directly to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ca.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/covid-trudeau-energy-bailout-164831063.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">orphan oil well cleanup and sector emissions reductions<\/a><\/span>. This response was amazingly inadequate for a sector as important to Canada as the oil and gas industry\u2014a sector in deep crisis which generates <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrcan.gc.ca\/science-data\/data-analysis\/energy-data-analysis\/energy-facts\/energy-and-economy\/20062\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$160B of economic impact<\/span> and supports over half-a-million Canadian jobs<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4. Businesses and<\/strong><strong> workers<\/strong><strong> suffer: <\/strong>Certainly a few business sectors have done well during this pandemic\u2014online services\/sellers, healthcare equipment suppliers, couriers and freight businesses, but most sectors will emerge far leaner and will suffer significant economic challenges of a longer standing nature. Despite the rosy projections by some about a reopened economy, employment dislocation, capital constraints, and significant business mortality rates are going to ultimately surprise many Canadians. We need to be prepared for <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/featured-insights\/leadership\/the-future-is-not-what-it-used-to-be-thoughts-on-the-shape-of-the-next-normal?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&amp;hlkid=30a39a0bbca34a4a8903a39c3b6202bb&amp;hctky=11741700&amp;hdpid=933fd4ac-98de-43bb-b49d-e4c223bc4e4d\">businesses and governments to become far more resilient<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. Media hysteria is making things worse: <\/strong>While the mainstream media (the \u2018fifth estate\u2019) should be providing Canadians with full transparency on topics of importance impacting Canadians, their unrelenting focus on COVID-19 created public frenzy and panic. All deaths are tragic, and we all mourn the losses and feel a great compassion for the many families impacted. However, this pandemic&#8217;s media obsessiveness is unprecedented, particularly when compared to other very deadly global tragedies, like cancer, drug addiction, obesity\/diabetes, poverty\/hunger, wars, and, yes, even some past pandemics like AIDS, H1N1, Ebola.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. The frontline workers are heroes: <\/strong>Without doubt, healthcare workers and emergency responders (especially in the high COVID-impacted areas) are heroes and we greatly appreciate their service. But every one of us who has shopped in a grocery store or received other retail services needs to recognize the importance and dedication of those employees. The Tim Horton\u2019s workers, the CTC curbside employees, the convenience store employees, and many other service providers\u2014all of these folks are heroes. Often underappreciated and underpaid, these people stepped up to continue serving the community. Thank you to our heroes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Canadian<\/strong><strong>s stepped up: <\/strong>We are social beings and love our mobility. Social distancing and self-isolation are not within our norm, yet Canadians did gracefully accept and generally comply with various authority directives quickly and consistently. However, the strains of isolation, fears and worries about the economic damage to come are taking a toll.<\/p>\n<p>Emergencies can lead to experts, bureaucrats and politicians leaving their hands on the throttle of unprecedented control too long, and in so doing can aggravate the scale of economic and social fallout to come. Caution and judiciousness is important in opening up our economy. But it is critical to keep in perspective that delaying too long will have consequential negative impacts on almost everyone. Opening regionally and by sector as the data supports, should also be an imperative.<\/p>\n<p>Learnings from our COVID-19 experience so far tells us that decision makers need to be accountable for better preparedness for the next public safety emergency. We must get it absolutely right going forward and be ready for the next time.<\/p>\n<p>Our next article will lay out some big picture factors shaping the global &amp; Canadian economic future post-pandemic.<\/p>\n<p><em>Dave Wilkin, P. Eng., Ross Maund, career senior executive. Both are Huntsville residents<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\">Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler!<\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Sign up <a href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/dont-miss-out-on-doppler\/\"><u>here<\/u><\/a> to receive our email digest with links to our most recent stories.<br \/>\nLocal news in your inbox three times per week!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45657\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Ross Maund and Dave Wilkin The COVID-19 pandemic, part two of three: top ten learnings (thus far) In this part two of our pandemic article we share our [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":84905,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - 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