{"id":85188,"date":"2020-05-06T13:55:27","date_gmt":"2020-05-06T17:55:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=85188"},"modified":"2020-05-06T14:09:39","modified_gmt":"2020-05-06T18:09:39","slug":"factors-affecting-the-impact-of-covid-19-commentary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/factors-affecting-the-impact-of-covid-19-commentary\/","title":{"rendered":"Factors affecting the impact of COVID-19 | Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

By Hugh Holland<\/em><\/p>\n

A meaningful evaluation of how well governments are managing the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be completed until the virus is under control in most countries. That is because the apparent outcome depends on where each country is on the curve. But some significant patterns are emerging. Here is a look at the data as of noon on May 5 and some of the factors that influence the numbers in G7 (denoted with **) and similar industrialized economies. The factors that shape the COVID-19 curve are a unique mix in each country. Most people would rank a low COVID-19 death rate as the most desirable outcome.<\/p>\n

\"COVID

(Summary by Hugh Holland based on Worldometer data)<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n

Existential factors (less affected by current management efforts)<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Median age and wealth – Deaths rates do not correlate well with median age and wealth.
\n\u2022 Population density \u2013 Physical distancing is more difficult in Asia, Europe, and in big cities.
\n\u2022 The nature of borders and trading patterns \u2013 European Union countries have open borders. Japan and South Korea are essentially island nations and their geography enables strict border control. Controlling the busy 6,000 km border between Canada and the USA is more difficult than island nations but less difficult than the 27 EU countries.
\n\u2022 The nature of travel patterns \u2013 People in wealthier industrialized G7 countries (that help support less-developed countries) travel more. Gateway cities, like London, New York, Chicago, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver are likely to be among the first affected.
\n\u2022 Culture \u2013 Japan\u2019s long-standing tradition of strict hygiene and bowing instead of hand shaking is an advantage. Distrust of government is a disadvantage for some countries.<\/p>\n

Management factors (more affected by current management efforts)<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Preparedness \u2013 Experts and supplies in place. Displaced in most countries by short-term priorities.
\n\u2022 Clear and consistent direction \u2013 Political leaders supporting scientific experts.
\n\u2022 Timing – The timing of effective mitigation relative to the outset is critical. South Korea was among the quickest to act on COVID-19.
\n\u2022 Testing \u2013 Testing reveals asymptomatic cases. Switzerland\u2019s testing rate is 23 times Japan and their death rate is 52 times Japan. Testing should be helpful in directing mitigation strategies.
\n\u2022 Accuracy of reporting \u2013 While more than half of COVID-19 deaths in Europe and Canada have been in long-term care homes, these deaths have not been reported consistently in all countries. Many developing countries lack the ability to collect accurate data.
\n\u2022 Isolation \u2013 Physical distancing is proving to be one of the most effective albeit disruptive strategies.
\n\u2022 Herd immunity – So far, Sweden\u2019s strategy of herd immunity (allowing large numbers to acquire some immunity by contracting mild cases of the virus) has not been a success story.
\n\u2022 Many of these same factors will also determine the success of each country and the world in actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change.<\/p>\n

Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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<\/broadstreet-zone>\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Hugh Holland A meaningful evaluation of how well governments are managing the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be completed until the virus is under control in most countries. 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