{"id":81904,"date":"2020-02-29T08:44:35","date_gmt":"2020-02-29T13:44:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=81904"},"modified":"2020-02-29T08:54:07","modified_gmt":"2020-02-29T13:54:07","slug":"the-big-challenges-series-population-and-demographic-changes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/the-big-challenges-series-population-and-demographic-changes\/","title":{"rendered":"The Big Challenges Series: population and demographic changes"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

By Dave Wilkin and Ross Maund<\/em><\/p>\n

Welcome to the third article in the \u201cBig Challenges\u201d series. Here we examine population growth and changing demographics and the potential associated challenges. Our charts depict global<\/a><\/span> and Canadian<\/a><\/span> populations and key demographic change dynamics projected 50 years into the future.<\/p>\n

<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n

The world\u2019s population is on track to reach 10 billion by 2055. Growth is driven almost entirely by less developed countries, while developed countries’ population growth remains flat. Without immigration to developed countries, their populations will most certainly decline, as birth rates have fallen well below the population replacement level of 2.1<\/a><\/span> births per woman (Canada was at 1.5 in 2019<\/a>, third lowest among G7 countries<\/a><\/span>).<\/p>\n

The dotted green line<\/a><\/span> in the graph below clearly shows rapidly rising prosperity in the developing world (88 per cent Asia<\/a>n<\/span>), moving roughly an additional 1.7 billion<\/span><\/a> poor\/vulnerable people into the middle class within a decade. This increasing prosperity leads to a gradual slowing of global population growth. Clearly there will be human benefits and a significant impact in developing countries, accompanied by rapidly rising offsetting stresses on the world\u2019s ecosystem and finite natural resources. The impact of these evolving trends must be factored into Canada\u2019s climate, natural resource\/trade and immigration policies going forward.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s population is on track to double to over 70 million within 50 years<\/a><\/span> (StatCan\u2019s high growth scenario, noted in the top blue line in the graph below). This high growth is driven by immigration and non-permanent resident growth, and we are now on this trajectory. Canada\u2019s 2019 population growth was 1.4 per cent, the highest recorded and top among G7 countries<\/a><\/span>. The UN\u2019s latest Net Migration Rate forecast<\/a><\/span> places Canada in the top five countries globally and triple that of the Europe + North America average rate. Excluding immigration, our population would decline (solid red line below, low growth scenario). At the same time, Canada\u2019s senior population is set to double (lower dotted blue line below, high growth scenario).<\/p>\n

\"World

World and Canadian population projections (Dave Wilkin and Ross Maund)<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Eighty per cent of recent immigrants reside in just 10 large Canadian city areas (2016 census)<\/a><\/span>, with the GTA rapidly approaching half (~38 per cent today). If this high growth rate continues, the GTA population rises to 10 million within about two decades (likely exceeding Quebec\u2019s total population). At the same time, rural Canada\u2019s population starts a slow decline<\/a> (UN forecast, lower black line above<\/a><\/span>) if current trends continue. Concurrently, rural senior population grows at an accelerated rate when compared to the national average. Muskoka\u2019s population is forecasted to grow at a rate of about one-third of that of southern Ontario\u2019s large urban centres, while aging faster.<\/p>\n

Without immigration, our economy would be contracting<\/a>, net of inflation<\/a><\/span>\u2014a sobering message that high immigration levels are now masking underlying economic weaknesse<\/span>s<\/a>. <\/strong><\/p>\n

These population dynamics raise a need for understanding, discussion and government leadership as we look into the future. Some of the concerning implications to Canada\u2019s future population picture includes:<\/p>\n