{"id":75829,"date":"2019-10-05T09:43:20","date_gmt":"2019-10-05T13:43:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=75829"},"modified":"2019-10-05T09:57:57","modified_gmt":"2019-10-05T13:57:57","slug":"canadas-energy-future-a-path-forward-by-dave-wilkin-and-tim-lutton","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/canadas-energy-future-a-path-forward-by-dave-wilkin-and-tim-lutton\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s energy future \u2013 A path forward, by Dave Wilkin and Tim Lutton"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

A mini-series on the future of energy
\nBy Dave Wilkin, P. Eng., M.Eng. and Tim Lutton, BSc., MBA<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is the final commentary in our future energy series. Let\u2019s summarize the key insights and messages we have relayed so far:<\/strong><\/div>\n
    \n
  1. Four plus billion people striving to join the middle-class in developing nations drives global energy demand growth, outstripping energy efficiency gains and low-carbon energy growth combined. Population growth and increased immigration intensifies the challenges. The world will need all forms of energy to meet future energy demand. It is not solar vs natural gas, or hydro vs oil etc. Instead, we will need oil and gas, hydro, nuclear plus renewables.<\/li>\n
  2. Transition to a lower-carbon energy future will take many decades, but it needs to happen before low-cost oil and gas reserves are depleted, likely within the next 50 years. Looking forward, we need to develop hydrocarbon-based reserves to not only meet incremental demand, but to also replace declining reserves that are currently being produced. As recoverable reserves begin to decline, expect increasing exploration in environmentally sensitive places, such as the Arctic.<\/li>\n
  3. No \u2018silver-bullet\u2019 technology replaces the world\u2019s 85 per cent carbon-based energy, wind\/solar included (given its inherent limitations). Many energy sources\/technologies and importantly more nuclear energy will be needed to meet growing global demand. The era of relatively cheap energy is coming to an end.<\/li>\n
  4. Geopolitics, underpinned by national self-interest, drives country energy policies and actions. This will only intensify as carbon, oil and gas reserves begin to decline.<\/li>\n
  5. Of the world\u2019s major oil and gas producers, only Canada contemplates actively destroying its energy sector (and economy along with it). It would accomplish nothing, as non-democratic carbon-energy exporting countries, possessing 85-90 per cent of global reserves (and weaker environmental standards) would fill the gaps, at higher costs while placing Canada in the ranks of the energy insecure nations.<\/li>\n
  6. Despite two decades of green-energy subsidies and high carbon-energy prices\/taxes, Europe\u2019s oil and gas consumption still grew two per cent over the period. Don\u2019t expect similar policies to work any better here – carbon taxes won\u2019t get the job done, despite what so-called \u2018experts\u2019 claim.<\/li>\n
  7. Canada\u2019s 30 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030 is not achievable. Zero global emissions by 2040\/50 is unrealistic. Impossible targets damage credibility, feed mistrust and grow skepticism.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    We offer the following recommendations that should be at the core of Canada\u2019s future energy roadmap:<\/strong><\/div>\n
      \n
    1. Get tough with China now<\/strong>. China is the largest global energy user and does the most environmental damage. They have become a model for many other fast-growing nations, so without changes there, the rest won\u2019t matter. They cheat on trade and have little respect for rule-of-law. Canada\u2019s weak responses has had zero impact. We must join the US and other nations to bring long overdue change. Import tariffs and much tougher trade policy\/restrictions would be a good start.<\/li>\n
    2. Major investment in our electric-power grids. <\/strong>This means investing in a national, integrated power grid. It must be intelligent, secure with expanded bi-directional power-flow with US states. This technology could be a huge Canadian export opportunity.<\/li>\n
    3. Continue critical oil and gas sector investments \u2013 <\/strong>Without continuing investments, Canadian energy supplies would quickly fall into decline, with serious consequences to our economy. Canadian oil must not be sold to the US at fire-sale prices. This means constructing new pipelines to tide-water on both coasts, opening new lucrative oil\/LNG markets to energy-insecure Europe and Asia in particular. They all need other options to Russian and OPEC energy supplies.<\/li>\n
    4. Government-business investment partnerships. <\/strong>Substantial R&D investments\/incentives for sectors where we have proven expertise and competitive advantage \u2013 electrical grids, advanced nuclear power, new cleaner carbon-energy technologies.<\/li>\n
    5. Expand development in our North<\/strong>, exerting real sovereignty there before other unfriendly nations recklessly exploit its resources.<\/li>\n
    6. Reset Canada\u2019s emission reduction target to something that is achievable \u2013<\/strong> It will build credibility.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      <\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n

      Measured against these recommendations, we believe the Conservative Party\u2019s platform is best aligned, but more is still required from them too. Misguided national policies jeopardize our future, and catchy political sound-bites (such as declaring \u201cclimate emergencies\u201c, \u201ctaxing pollution\u201d, \u201cgrowing the economy and fighting climate change go hand-in-hand\u201d) accomplish nothing. Barring some technological revolution, future energy costs are headed much higher. Governments must not place disproportionate burdens on those least able to pay or cripple Canadian businesses under the banner of \u2018fighting climate-change\u2019.<\/p>\n

      The Bottomline<\/strong>: Canada\u2019s annual CO2 emissions contribution, which is less than two per cent of global emissions, is exceeded each year by developing countries’ growth. If we are serious about making a global measurable difference, it will be as a leading, reliable source of cleaner energy and technology. On the domestic energy front, we can\u2019t wait until our economically recoverable carbon energy production falls into serious decline before transitioning to a diversified, sustainable energy portfolio plus related infrastructure.<\/em><\/p>\n

      We hope you found our mini-series informative. An energy transition is underway, and Canada\u2019s future depends on getting it right. Please stay informed, remain wary of \u2018silver-bullet\u2019 solutions, misleading political rhetoric, and fake news. And finally, choose wisely!<\/p>\n

      Previous articles in this series –<\/strong>
      \nA mini-series on the future of energy, by Dave Wilkin and Tim Lutton<\/a>
      \n      The Energy big picture, by Dave Wilkin and Tim Lutton
      \n<\/a>      Growth, the global energy driver ~ by Dave Wilkin and Tim Lutton<\/a>
      \n      The Geopolitics of Energy ~ by Dave Wilkin and Tim Lutton<\/a>
      \n      The greener technologies offer no silver bullet ~ by Dave Wilkin and Tim Lutton<\/a>
      \n      Consider this scenario and its disastrous consequences ~ by Dave Wilkin and Tim Lutton<\/a><\/p>\n

      Dave Wilkin is a Professional Engineer who lives in Huntsville. He is an electrical engineer with a career spanning 35 years in IT, banking and consulting.<\/strong><\/em>
      \nTim Lutton worked in the natural gas and LNG industry for 32 years; with Imperial Oil in Canada, and ExxonMobil in the USA, Australia and Qatar and now lives in Huntsville.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

      Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler!<\/h5>\n

      Sign up here<\/u><\/a> to receive our email digest with links to our most recent stories.
      \nLocal news in your inbox three times per week!<\/strong><\/p>\n

      <\/broadstreet-zone>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      An energy transition is underway, and Canada\u2019s future depends on getting it right. 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