{"id":72431,"date":"2019-08-02T08:42:03","date_gmt":"2019-08-02T12:42:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=72431"},"modified":"2019-08-02T08:42:03","modified_gmt":"2019-08-02T12:42:03","slug":"the-fiscal-performance-of-ontario-governments-over-the-last-31-years-hugh-holland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/the-fiscal-performance-of-ontario-governments-over-the-last-31-years-hugh-holland\/","title":{"rendered":"The fiscal performance of Ontario governments over the last 31 years ~ Hugh Holland"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 14px;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45658\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n<p>Let the buyer beware.  The performance of governments is seldom as good as the government claims and seldom as bad as opposition parties claim. Balancing the budget with the ever-changing needs of a growing population, a growing economy, and an explosion of new technologies is a very difficult job. Everyone wants a balanced budget &#8211; &#8211; until it affects them personally.  Every one of Ontario\u2019s previous seven governments (three Liberal, three Conservative, one NDP) in the 31 years since 1988 have added to Ontario\u2019s debt.<\/p>\n<p>The following chart from Statscan and the Ontario Ministry of Finance shows the trend of the Net Debt to GDP ratio during the last six governments in Ontario. The next chart shows the trend of US debt.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-72433\" src=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.53.22-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"484\" height=\"246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.53.22-PM-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.53.22-PM.png 484w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 484px) 100vw, 484px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-72434\" src=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.54.05-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.54.05-PM-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.54.05-PM.png 438w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 485px) 100vw, 485px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Of course, debt is a serious concern. However, to be accurate and fair, one must consider many surrounding trends and factors when evaluating and comparing the fiscal performance of a government:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Impact on trade and tax revenue of global and national economic trends and conditions\n<ul>\n<li>The costs of health care and education continue even when revenues are in recession.<\/li>\n<li>The cost of social assistance increases during recessions.<\/li>\n<li>Should governments try to cushion the impact of recessions on vulnerable people?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The policies and assignments of preceding governments (What level of government does what?)<\/li>\n<li>Infrastructure conditions and needs\n<ul>\n<li>Ontario population forecasted to grow by 30 per cent from 2017 to 2041 &#8211; GTA to grow 41 per cent<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Society priorities \u2013 Health Care, education and training account for 63 per cent of Ontario expenditures and continue to grow relentlessly due to new technologies that everyone wants. But these priorities are the keys to ensuring our economy grows on pace with our population. Our health care system is not perfect, but as I watch the US struggle to fix their less effective and much more expensive system, I am increasingly thankful for our Canadian health care system.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-72435\" src=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.59.51-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"304\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.59.51-PM-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-5.59.51-PM.png 410w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 485px) 100vw, 485px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It is difficult to find data earlier than 1988, but times were good then, and earlier governments were able to balance. Here are some historical facts around the seven governments of Ontario from 1988 to 2019:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>David Peterson (Liberal \/ NDP coalition) 1988 to 1990\n<ul>\n<li>Banned extra billing by doctors and ended health insurance premiums<\/li>\n<li>Ontario debt increased 8.1% from 35.5 b to 38.4 b over 2 years = 4% per year<\/li>\n<li>Debt \/ GDP in 1990 was 38.4 b \/ 395 b = 9.7%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li>Bob Rae (NDP) 1990 to 1995\n<ul>\n<li>1992 category 4 recession \u2013 Decreased revenue and increased cost of social services<\/li>\n<li>Rae days introduced to try to minimize layoffs \u2013 Lost union support<\/li>\n<li>Introduced casinos to produce revenue<\/li>\n<li>Ontario debt increased 136% from 38.4 b to 90.7 b over 5 years = 27.2% per year<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li>Mike Harris (Conservative) 1995 to 2002\n<ul>\n<li>30% tax cut and 21% cut to social assistance, health care, and education<\/li>\n<li>Cancelled infrastructure projects including the Eglington Subway funded in 2016 by Wynne<\/li>\n<li>Downloaded responsibilities for several services to municipalities<\/li>\n<li>Eliminated grade 13<\/li>\n<li>Privatized Highway 407 (Later criticized)<\/li>\n<li>Ontario debt increased 45.6% from 90.7 b to 132.1 b over 7 years = 6.5% per year<\/li>\n<li>Debt \/ GDP in 2002 was = 28.3%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"4\">\n<li>Ernie Eves (Conservative) 2002 to 2003\n<ol>\n<li>North America hydro blackout<\/li>\n<li>Ontario debt increased 0.3% from 132.1 b to 132.6 b over 1 year = 0.3% per year<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"5\">\n<li>Dalton McGuinty (Liberal) &#8211; 2003 to 2013\n<ol>\n<li>2008 category 4 recession (caused by US banking practices) decreased revenue and increased social service expenditures<\/li>\n<li>Cancelled some Harris tax cuts<\/li>\n<li>Uploaded some services that were crippling municipalities<\/li>\n<li>Transferred gas tax to municipalities to help pay for downloads<\/li>\n<li>Instituted full-day kindergarten to help working families<\/li>\n<li>Green Energy Plan (Left Ontario with arguably one of the world\u2019s most modernized and resilient electricity systems. Many other jurisdictions have yet to make those investments.)<\/li>\n<li>Ontario power plant scandal (Mississauga was the optimum location for the gas plant, but opponents succeeded in getting it moved to Nappanee which increased infrastructure costs to move western gas farther east, and electricity back west to the GTHA where needed)<\/li>\n<li>Ontario debt increased 78% from 132.6 b to 236.2 b or 78% over 10 years = 7.8% per year<\/li>\n<li>Debt \/ GDP in 2013 was 38.2%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"6\">\n<li>Kathleen Wynne (Liberal) \u2013 2013 to 2018 &#8211;\n<ol>\n<li>Revenues continued to be impacted by manufacturing jobs lost during 2008 recession<\/li>\n<li>Toronto becomes North America\u2019s fourth largest city (Very important but densely crowded)<\/li>\n<li>Invested $30 b for needed infrastructure including the Eglington subway cancelled by Harris<\/li>\n<li>Privatized Hydro-One (Later criticized)<\/li>\n<li>Privatized some beer and wine sales<\/li>\n<li>Free prescription drugs to youth under 25<\/li>\n<li>Ontario debt increased 30% from 236.2 b to 308.2 b over 5 years = 6.1 % per year<\/li>\n<li>Debt \/ GDP in 2018 was 39.2%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"7\">\n<li>Doug Ford (Conservative) \u2013 2018 to 2019\n<ol>\n<li>Minor cuts to some budgets<\/li>\n<li>Re-organized Hydro One resulting in substantial penalty clause charges<\/li>\n<li>Withdrew from climate change accord and cap and trade initiative<\/li>\n<li>Cut Toronto councilors from 47 to 25<\/li>\n<li>Ontario debt increased 5.5% from 308.2 b to 325.0 b (projected) over 1 year = 5.5% per year<\/li>\n<li>Debt to GDP is expected to peak at 40.7%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong><em>Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler! Sign up for our free newsletter <\/strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/dont-miss-out-on-doppler\/\"><strong>here<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45657\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>REFERENCES<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ontario GDP \u2013 2000 to 2017 ~ <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/577539\/gdp-of-ontario-canada\/\"><strong>https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/577539\/gdp-of-ontario-canada\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>According to investors, Ontario debt is not as bad as it looks ~ <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/2845864\/reality-check-is-ontarios-debt-really-that-bad\/\"><strong>https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/2845864\/reality-check-is-ontarios-debt-really-that-bad\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-72436\" src=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-6.15.51-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"366\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-6.15.51-PM-300x226.png 300w, https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2019\/08\/Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-6.15.51-PM.png 464w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 485px) 100vw, 485px\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The performance of governments is seldom as good as the government claims and seldom as bad as opposition parties claim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":72439,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[26,647],"class_list":["post-72431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","tag-breaking","tag-hugh-holland"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The fiscal performance of Ontario governments over the last 31 years ~ Hugh Holland<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/the-fiscal-performance-of-ontario-governments-over-the-last-31-years-hugh-holland\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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