{"id":65369,"date":"2019-04-24T04:51:41","date_gmt":"2019-04-24T08:51:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=65369"},"modified":"2021-01-29T08:05:40","modified_gmt":"2021-01-29T13:05:40","slug":"can-canadians-handle-climate-change-truths-david-wilkin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/can-canadians-handle-climate-change-truths-david-wilkin\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Canadians handle climate-change truths? ~ David Wilkin"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

The new federal carbon tax has ignited the political global-warming fires, right on queue for the federal election. First, a quick recap from my past articles<\/a><\/span>. The latest IPCC report<\/a><\/span> warned us only 12 years remain to cut global carbon emissions in half, on the path to zero-emissions in 30 years. This establishes the near-term boundary to transition from today\u2019s carbon-energy economy. The outside boundary is about 50 years due to depletion of proven global \u201ceconomically viable\u201d oil and gas reserves<\/span>. <\/a>Led by China and India, global emissions rose 2.7 per cent in 2018<\/a><\/span>, but likely much more due to significant discrepancies in China\u2019s reported coal consumption<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n

<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n

The Liberal government\u2019s climate-change plan demand-side features a small carbon tax and some energy saving incentives\/subsidies. More concerning, their restrictive supply-side policies strangle our carbon-energy sector. Our economy will need this revenue stream to help fund the future energy transition. We have a highly motivated buyer, the USA \u2013 without secure Canadian oil (99% of our oil exports<\/span>), <\/a>they have just ten years of proven reserves remaining<\/span><\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Now to debunk the political rhetoric:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The carbon tax reduces emissions<\/strong>. The Liberal $20\/ton tax ($50 by 2022) will have no meaningful impact on consumption behavior. To do so, the tax would need to be much higher<\/a>.<\/span> Worse, its costs are hidden, regressive, and ripple through the entire economy. My table below clearly shows Ontario, without a carbon tax, handily beat both BC and Quebec (each with carbon-pricing) on key metrics (assisted by nuclear and wind replacing coal<\/a><\/span>). Even the USA managed an 13 per cent decline<\/a><\/span> without a carbon tax. Global climate-leader Sweden, with a high carbon tax, is included for comparisons – they achieved a 29 per cent emissions decline in 10 years. It\u2019s little surprise then that only 20 per cent of all countries (80 per cent European – geographically small, lacking carbon-energy sectors) have carbon-pricing, covering just 13 per cent of global emissions<\/a><\/span>.
    \n\"\"<\/li>\n
  2. PM Trudeau says: <\/strong>\u201cFighting climate change and growing the economy go hand-in-hand<\/a><\/span>\u201d. <\/strong>This totally ignores the scale of the coming transformation – replacing our carbon-energy system. The cost is never discussed, so the table below shows my ball-park estimates, built from recent US EIA <\/a><\/span>and National Energy Board<\/a><\/span> data. The electrical system capital cost for blended Scenario D, is approximately $3 trillion, excluding customer\/business equipment replacement costs and business competitive losses (point four below). This builds a new smart<\/em> electrical system with approximately four times the current electrical system capacity, removing >90% of emissions. For context, this capital cost is 1.5 times our entire economy<\/em> GDP, almost tripling hydro rates and raising heating costs six-seven times (vs. natural gas today). Canada\u2019s oil and gas sector\u2019s 900,000 dependent jobs<\/a><\/span>, $220B of GDP<\/a><\/span>, and $182 Billion<\/a><\/span> in Foreign Direct Investment cut in half, or more. This is risk cost. It will take many decades to complete with costs and impacts varying significantly by province. There is growth in the electrical and nuclear power sectors, but far from offsetting the costs – a serious energy supply-side strategy is long over-due.
    \n\"\"
    \n<\/em><\/li>\n
  3. Renewable wind and solar energy \u2018is the future\u2019. <\/strong>In Canada (and globally) this energy represents approximately 1.5 per cent of all energy (electrical sector approximately 5 per cent). Its share is growing, but due to its highly intermittent nature, it\u2019s much more expensive and is \u2018grid-capped\u2019, meaning beyond an approximately 20 per cent share<\/a><\/span> (in Canada), very expensive power storage and extra capacity supply<\/a><\/span> grows rapidly. Without substantial growth in Advanced Nuclear power, by 2040 carbon-sourced energy still provides over 70 per cent of our energy. Carbon capture and storage<\/a><\/span> will help, but it is growing much too slowly.<\/li>\n
  4. Real emission reductions are required from developed<\/em> countries – only. <\/strong>Rapid growth in developing countries, led by China and India, doubles global GDP by 2040 (80 per cent from approximately 2.5 billion people joining the middle-class<\/a><\/span>), growing energy demand 32 per cent<\/span>.<\/a> They made only weak commitments to lower emission intensity (to GDP) not actual emissions<\/em>, meaning emissions rise regardless of developed countries’ actions. Getting an emissions-reduction pass further disadvantages our manufacturing sector, already hollowed-out over the last 20 years. It is na\u00efve to expect them to follow our \u201clead\u201d, voluntarily prioritizing emission reductions over economic\/middle-class growth. What geniuses negotiated this deal? Perhaps fear of running out of affordable oil and gas (sooner) will have more success?<\/li>\n
  5. Immigration\u2019s impact on climate change \u2013 only government silence. <\/strong>Canada takes in approximately 360,000 immigrants per year<\/a><\/span> ( about 1 per cent of the population, excluding temporary workers), driving >80% of our population growth. Here\u2019s the problem: most come from <\/span>countries with 1\/4 our carbon intensity\/capita<\/a>.<\/span> Maintaining the<\/span> planned 1.1 per cent immigration rate<\/a><\/span>, adds another 6 million to <\/span>Canada\u2019s population (up 16 per cent) by 2030<\/a><\/span>. This adds to global emissions and at our current intensity improvement rate, 87 MTCO<\/span>2<\/sub>E more to Canada\u2019s 2030 emissions target gap. For context, that\u2019s more than <\/span>the emissions from all our passenger vehicles<\/a><\/span> today. Is this wise?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    I understand these are tough messages, but Canadians need to understand the truth if we are to take meaningful actions and avoid catastrophic blunders. Trudeau\u2019s plans create the illusion<\/em> of fighting climate-change \u2013 buzz words and minimalist actions to acquiesce\/fool the people \u2013 while weakening Canada\u2019s economy in the process. Let\u2019s see if the other political parties have better plans.<\/p>\n

    Dave Wilkin, Masters, Electrical Engineering, P. Eng.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler! Sign up for our free newsletter <\/strong>here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Trudeau\u2019s plans create the illusion of fighting climate-change \u2013 buzz words and minimalist actions to acquiesce\/fool the people \u2013 while weakening Canada\u2019s economy in the process. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":57534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2444,5],"tags":[26,771,2003],"class_list":["post-65369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-commentary","tag-breaking","tag-climate-change","tag-dave-wilkin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan Canadians handle climate-change truths? ~ David Wilkin - Huntsville Doppler<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/can-canadians-handle-climate-change-truths-david-wilkin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Canadians handle climate-change truths? 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