{"id":61156,"date":"2019-01-23T05:09:30","date_gmt":"2019-01-23T10:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=61156"},"modified":"2019-01-23T14:45:30","modified_gmt":"2019-01-23T19:45:30","slug":"tripling-canadas-population-over-the-next-80-years-hugh-holland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/tripling-canadas-population-over-the-next-80-years-hugh-holland\/","title":{"rendered":"Tripling Canada’s population over the next 80 years ~ Hugh Holland"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

Maximizing Canada<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 1605, Samuel de Champlain left France with 74 settlers and crew to make the grueling 35-day trip across the North Atlantic to what is now the Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia. In 1607, 144 people left England to establish a settlement at Jamestown Virginia. Thus, began the great migration of people to escape the problems of 17th century Europe and to seek a better life on a new continent. However, the following chart shows that since the late 1700\u2019s, the growth patterns between Canada and the United States have been dramatically different.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In 2016, the federal government\u2019s Advisory Panel on Economic Growth recommended that to attain a more independent and sustainable economy, Canada should pursue a strategy to reach a population of 100 million people by 2100, mainly through a modest increase in immigration. The recommendation was supported by both the Liberals and Conservatives. In his 2018 book called Maximum Canada<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/span>, Globe and Mail International Affairs Columnist Doug Saunders explores the background, rational, and pros and cons of essentially tripling Canada\u2019s population over the next 80 years.<\/p>\n

<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n

What determined the growth patterns?<\/strong>
\nWhile climate was a major factor in the different growth patterns between Canada and the US, Saunders explains that the other major factor was British colonial rule that in the early days restricted trade and immigration to Britain only. The colonies could only buy and sell with Britain and accept immigrants from Britain, and some from France. The American colonies gained independence from British colonial rule in the 1776 American revolution. But colonial rule was then intensified in Canada and existed until after Canada\u2019s valiant effort in two World Wars. Colonial rule was a deterrent to the perception of opportunity and often resulted in more people immigrating to the US than immigrating to Canada. In 1885, my grandfather emigrated from England at age 12. Like many other families, three of my grandparent\u2019s seven children later immigrated to the United States. With limited net immigration, Canada\u2019s meager population growth was almost all from natural fertility. The impact of these factors shows clearly on the above population chart.<\/p>\n

The Effects of Underpopulation
\n<\/u><\/strong>The lack of population growth meant that remote indigenous communities remained isolated. It meant a small domestic market. Relatively low economies of scale meant higher costs and environmental impacts per capita for transportation of people, goods and energy. Vehicle emissions due to low population density are still Canada\u2019s largest source of carbon emissions. Low population density meant less accessibility to health care and less affordability of public services, national defence, media, the arts and research. In 2015, the US was granted 474 patents per million people vs 202 in Canada. A larger population would improve all these factors.<\/p>\n

Why 100 million?<\/strong>
\nLatest UN estimates show global population growing by 45 per cent from 7.6 to 11 billion by 2100. With the world\u2019s second largest land mass and the ability to be fully self-sufficient in food and energy, Canada clearly has the capacity to grow. 100 million provides an ambitious planning benchmark, and yet in this vast land it is not so big a change that Canada\u2019s character and population density would be substantially different from today. 80 per cent of the population will live in existing urban areas, so with good planning most of our natural and agricultural spaces would remain untouched and sparsely populated. Even the most densely populated countries have sparsely populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
G7 Economies in 2018<\/strong><\/td>\nPeople (millions)<\/strong><\/td>\nDensity (People per Square Kilometer)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japan<\/td>\n127<\/td>\n337<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UK<\/td>\n67<\/td>\n277<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Germany<\/td>\n82<\/td>\n237<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Italy<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n201<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n120<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\n329<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canada in 2100<\/strong><\/td>\n100<\/strong><\/td>\n 10<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canada in 2018<\/td>\n37<\/td>\n 3.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

What needs to change?<\/strong>
\nOver the recent six years of both Conservative and Liberal governments, Canada has averaged 366,000 births, 264,000 deaths, and 275,000 new immigrants a year, for an average net gain of 377,000 people per year. Continuing with these numbers, Canada would reach only 50 million by 2100. By gradually increasing immigration to 400,000 per year (1 per cent of the population),<\/em><\/strong> Canada could reach 100 million by 2100 and still have by far the lowest population density of the G7 economies.<\/p>\n

<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n

What could be the risks and hazards of moving towards 100 million people?
\nThe main risk would be failure to do adequate planning and preparation; particularly for cities and the connecting infrastructure. Such a plan cannot depend on luck. Proactive planning is much cheaper and yields much better results than reactive planning. Better to reserve transportation corridors and green spaces before they are covered with buildings. If such a plan cannot satisfy the dream of a job and a home for both native-born Canadians and for immigrants, it may not be worth doing. But experience shows that in general, immigrants have been willing to work two or more jobs to buy a home and educate their children, and they would help to mitigate the labour shortages already being experienced.<\/p>\n

It is natural for immigrants to congregate in enclaves. We moved to an English enclave when transferred to Quebec. Enclaves help immigrants feel comfortable until they integrate, and they provide a healthy platform to start small businesses. But enclaves can be a problem if they are not serviced properly, and if our laws do not continue to maintain tolerance and the separation of church and state.<\/p>\n

Doug Sauder\u2019s book is a good read for anyone interested in Canada\u2019s past and future. He closes by saying the world will grow and change whether we do or not. We either grow or we shrink. So why not provide Canada with the many benefits of a larger population and a more independent economy?<\/p>\n

Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler! Sign up for our free newsletter <\/strong>here<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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