{"id":59141,"date":"2018-12-06T05:03:33","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T10:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huntsville.dopperonline.ca\/?p=59141"},"modified":"2024-10-16T10:25:13","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T14:25:13","slug":"has-climate-change-politics-hit-a-wall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/has-climate-change-politics-hit-a-wall\/","title":{"rendered":"Has climate-change politics hit a wall? ~ David Wilkin"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 14px;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45658\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n<p><em>By David Wilkin, Masters, Electrical Eng., P. Eng<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The media is filled with global-warming predictions and warnings, with climate experts and national political leaders calling for more action, yet many in democratic countries are not onside with the <em>current<\/em> climate policies:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ontario voters removed a 15-year Liberal government largely over unpopular cap-and-trade tax and costly green-energy policies. Now Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, PEI and Alberta all oppose carbon taxes. Recently, the collapse of Canadian oil and gas prices has angered many Canadians, exposing failures in Federal government energy and pipeline policies.<\/li>\n<li>The French president, after only a few weeks of unprecedented citizen anger and protests over massively unpopular fuel tax increases, backed down on imposing new promised increases for six months. There are signs the uprising may spread beyond France.<\/li>\n<li>Australia, the world\u2019s largest coal exporter, elected a new conservative PM promising changes to previous climate plans.<\/li>\n<li>Brazil, the largest player in South America, elected a populist president promising to pull out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.<\/li>\n<li>The US Trump administration \u201cAmerica first\u201d policies brought aggressive deregulation and promotion of its energy sectors, then withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 14px;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45658\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n<p>Has climate-change politics hit a wall? Perhaps, but before drawing conclusions, here are some \u2018big-picture\u2019 energy facts to consider that seldom make headlines:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Globally, \u2018green\u2019 renewables (wind, solar) provide <a href=\"https:\/\/edubirdie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/weo2017.pdf\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">under one per cent<\/span><\/a> of all energy consumed, and <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalenergyinstitute.org\/look-iea%E2%80%99s-new-global-energy-forecast\">global energy demand<\/a><\/span> is forecasted to grow by almost 27 per cent over the next two decades.<\/li>\n<li>Renewables are used mostly in power generation, but there are real, hard limits to its overall share. Germany, a renewables leader, recently learned this, as it was forced to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/environmentalprogress.org\/big-news\/2017\/1\/13\/breaking-german-emissions-increase-in-2016-for-second-year-in-a-row-due-to-nuclear-closure\">open new coal plants<\/a><\/span> following the closure of nuclear plants. Green renewables in the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tdworld.com\/generation-and-renewables\/myth-german-renewable-energy-miracle\">German power-grid<\/a><\/span> generate about 18 per cent of its power, and this appears close to the upper share-limit to ensure power-grid stability. Carbon-based backup generation is necessary to balance the load demand.<\/li>\n<li>According to IEA 2017 CO2 emission reports, only seven of 195 Paris Agreement signing countries, and <em>none<\/em> of the 32 largest emitters were on track to meet commitments (<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bp.com\/en\/global\/corporate\/energy-economics\/statistical-review-of-world-energy\/co2-emissions.html\">China and India accounted for almost half of the 1.6 per cent 2017 global CO2 increase<\/a><\/span>). Forecasts point to emissions growth in 2018, potentially by <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brisbanetimes.com.au\/environment\/climate-change\/disappointing-global-carbon-emissions-growth-quickens-on-china-leap-20181205-p50kco.html\">2.7 per cent<\/a><\/span>, despite the Paris Agreement calls for over one per cent reduction per year.<\/li>\n<li>Polluting coal plants persist. A <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mining.com\/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-china\/\">2017 Berlin-based study<\/a><\/span> found 1,600 new coal plants in 62 countries are planned or under construction, expanding coal-powered capacity by a staggering 43 per cent<strong>.<\/strong> Chinese companies will build half of them, despite coal reduction commitments.<\/li>\n<li>A recent <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-018-07223-9\">Nature Communications report<\/a><\/span> showed if all countries followed the climate energy policies of China, Russia or Canada, world temperature would rise a dangerous five degrees Celsius by 2100.<\/li>\n<li>The <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=37053\">US became the world\u2019s largest oil producer<\/a><\/span> in 2018, and is on track to become a <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=34912\">net energy exporter<\/a><\/span> within a few years. This change has big geo-political consequences, particularly for Canada (the US takes <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrcan.gc.ca\/energy\/facts\/crude-oil\/20064\">99 per cent of our oil exports<\/a><\/span>), the Middle East, Russia, &amp; China. Yet, somehow the US still managed to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/capitalresearch.org\/article\/u-s-achieves-largest-decrease-in-carbon-emissionswithout-the-paris-climate-accord\/\">reduce carbon emissions by 0.5 per cent in 2017<\/a><\/span>, better than all major emitters.<\/li>\n<li>Many media headline-grabbing \u2018doomsday\u2019 predictions have not panned out with actual historic climate measurements. Some had serious <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2018-11-climate-contrarian-uncovers-scientific-error.html\">errors<\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 14px;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45658\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n<p>The emission reduction progress in most countries is not measuring up to government leaders&#8217; talk and commitments. What is becoming clear is that without changes, CO2 emissions will not decline, and we will see growing economic stress, inequities, social unrest and conflict. Quite the dilemma, to say the least. These are very complex issues to be sure, with no easy answers. One thing is clear\u2014governments must have their people fully on board, otherwise they get thrown out. Here are some additional lessons leaders may have learned:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Transition from the carbon-energy economy will take many decades. Don\u2019t prematurely limit oil and gas supplies or drive their costs too high <em>before<\/em> competitive alternatives are more widely available.<\/li>\n<li>Don\u2019t be myopic on renewables. Nuclear has a role to play, as will other innovations and incentives.<\/li>\n<li>Policy burdens must not fall disproportionally on those least able to pay\u2014it must be broadly viewed as fair.<\/li>\n<li>Leaders viewed as elitist, idealist, out of touch or over-promising and under-delivering will fail.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aei.org\/publication\/climate-change-hysteria-hurts-its-cause\/\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Beware \u2018Climate change hysteria<\/span>\u2019<\/a>, it hurts the cause in the long run.<\/li>\n<li>The much-praised 2015 Paris Agreement is flawed. Its national voluntary targets and lack of fairness, standards, and enforcement are evident. Clearly, the biggest and fast-growing emitters (mostly in Asia) must do more to curb emissions. Regardless of your views on Trump, he was right to call out the flaws and need for changes.<\/li>\n<li>More warming is inevitable, better start planning for it now.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler! Sign up for our free newsletter <\/strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/dont-miss-out-on-doppler\/\"><strong>here<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45657\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By David Wilkin, Masters, Electrical Eng., P. Eng The media is filled with global-warming predictions and warnings, with climate experts and national political leaders calling for more action, yet many [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":11730,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[26,771,1922],"class_list":["post-59141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","tag-breaking","tag-climate-change","tag-david-wilkin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Has climate-change politics hit a wall? ~ David Wilkin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Before drawing conclusions on climate-change politics, here are some \u2018big-picture\u2019 energy facts to consider that seldom make headlines -\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/has-climate-change-politics-hit-a-wall\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has climate-change politics hit a wall? 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