Jaime Watt is a friend and former colleague of mine. He is also a renowned national political strategist, often, but not always, with a conservative bent. In a recent article, headlined, \u2018What to watch for in Canadian politics for 2026,\u2019 he wrote the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIn Canadian politics, 2025 will be remembered as the year of Trump. In 2026, I regret to predict very little will change. In my last column, I argued that the U.S. midterms – and President Donald Trump\u2019s rhetoric in the leadup \u2013 will turn Canada into an increasingly convenient target, spelling trouble for our economy and particularly for the looming CUSMA (free trade) renegotiations. This is a seismic risk. But it is far from the only political story we should be watching in the year ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jaime Watt goes on to state that one of those stories we need to follow closely this year is the threat of separation referendums in both Quebec and Alberta. With that issue in particular, I could not agree more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I can think of no greater risk to Canada\u2019s sovereignty than these two debates and subsequent referendums taking place during an unprecedented period where Canada\u2019s very existence as a nation is under serious threat from external sources. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
We fool ourselves if we do not believe this threat is real. Canadian journalist Martin Regg-Cohn this week wrote, “American imperialists, Quebec sovereigntists and Alberta separatists are each in their own way, calling for the break-up of the country as we know it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another Canadian journalist, Susan Delacourt, echoed the same concern. \u201cThe big difference between the 2026 threat to Canadian unity is that it\u2019s coming not just from one province but three places \u2013 Quebec, Alberta and disturbingly, [an understatement if I have ever heard one] the United States.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is little that U.S. President Donald Trump enjoys more than exploiting the perceived weakness of others. He has made no secret of his ambitions related to Canada, and those who do not take him seriously have their heads buried deeply in the sand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said in Calgary this weekend, \u201cYou cannot deal with the reality of the Trump threat by pretending it is not there.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are credible reports that leaders of the separation movement in Alberta have been meeting with senior officials in the Trump Administration. There can be little doubt that the President of the United States is not aware of this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
British Columbia Premier David Eby painted this action by some Alberta separatists as \u201ctreason.\u201d A bit over the edge, perhaps, but frankly, under current circumstances, not that far off the mark. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s response to these meetings is that he expects the Trump Administration to respect Canada\u2019s sovereignty. That may be the nice and even the politically correct thing to say, but it is not nearly enough, especially when it cannot be clearer that President Trump does not respect Canada\u2019s sovereignty. In fact, he opposes it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I was born in Alberta and have experienced the loyalty to Canada as well as the frustration with the way that province has often been treated by the federal government, by generational members of my extended family in that province, three of whom have received the Order of Canada. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But to think that most Albertans would prefer a land- locked so-called independent jurisdiction tied to the apron strings of the United States, smacks of jumping from the frying pan into the fire, a concept that to me at least, is beyond comprehension. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for Quebec separatists, they have been lobbying for independence from Canada for decades, and there are real signs that this concept is raising its ugly head again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In her recent article, Susan Delacourt also wrote, \u201cCarney is not the first prime minister to have the threat of separation hang over him \u2013 Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien all had to deal with that reality. But he\u2019s (Carney) the first one that is forced to juggle domestic separatism with a White House that is flirting with the advantages of having a non-united Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What boggles the mind is that these separation discussions in Canada are taking place, and are being allowed to take place, during a time when Canada\u2019s sovereignty is at its most vulnerable. I cannot think of a greater or more self-defeating gift for Canada to give to Donald Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is this concept that brought to mind for me that short but pithy statement by Forrest Gump, \u201cStupid is as stupid does.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I now come to the question of whether we should have yet another federal election in the very near future. Two things come to mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, if Canada is going to survive in its present form, it needs tough leadership right now, and that leadership needs to get its own house in order if it has any hope of dealing effectively with the Trump Administration in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It means a carrot and stick approach to any provinces, organizations, or individuals who promote dissension, separatism, or divisiveness that provides fodder to those who disrespect and undermine Canada\u2019s sovereignty. If that means new and tougher laws, so be it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Canada needs to demonstrate that it has built a house of stone that cannot be blown down by the big bad wolf, and it needs to do it now. If that doesn\u2019t sound very Canadian, too bad. The wolf is at the door. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, the ability for a federal government to achieve what needs to be done with the consequences that may follow, and with the risks that must be taken, requires a very strong mandate from Canadian voters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The current Liberal government does not have that. The voter is always right, and Canadians voted for a minority government in the last federal election, albeit a large one. They know the difference between a majority mandate elected by the people and one that is manufactured by those who are in power. Voters were willing to give Mark Carney a chance, but he was not given carte blanche. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
While current polls show that the federal Liberals and Conservatives are relatively close, Mark Carney is well ahead of Pierre Poilievre as the preferred prime minister. That could change after Poilievre\u2019s performance in Calgary this weekend has been widely acclaimed and not just by conservatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, Mark Carney can be judged on his stewardship as Prime Minister during the last year, some of which has been very impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Canada\u2019s federal government will, during at least the next few years, face some of its greatest challenges since at least the Second World War. Yes, it will require cooperation from provincial leaders, but overall, it will need discipline, strength, ingenuity and toughness from the government of Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some will believe we already have that. Others will disagree. We need to figure that out. Canadians need to give an overwhelming majority to the government of their choice. That is why we need a general election sooner rather than later. It is that strength of purpose by Canadians that will help us survive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Trump Administration backs down to strength. Canadians need to demonstrate that we have that strength, resolve and unity and that we have a government in power with the mandate and the confidence of their citizens to achieve that. <\/p>\n\n\n
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<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\nHugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\nDon\u2019t miss out on Doppler!<\/h5>\n