{"id":197399,"date":"2025-08-03T16:49:08","date_gmt":"2025-08-03T20:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/?p=197399"},"modified":"2025-08-03T16:49:09","modified_gmt":"2025-08-03T20:49:09","slug":"no-need-to-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/no-need-to-panic\/","title":{"rendered":"Listen Up! No need for Canada to panic by Hugh Holland | Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hugh Mackenzie is on break this week<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is in panic mode ahead of the US mid-term elections in November 2026. That is why the \u201cstable genius,\u201d as he once called himself, is bent on imposing tariffs on products of other countries selling to the USA, such as the threatened 35% tariff on aluminum, steel, and now copper from Canada.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aluminum is important in manufacturing aircraft, cars and trucks, and defence products. The US doesn\u2019t want to be dependent on aluminum from China or Russia, but Trump thinks he can use tariffs on Canadian aluminum to extort protection money from Canada. Nope! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s look at the example of aluminum. Aluminum is one of the most energy-intensive materials to make.  It takes 14 billion kWh of electrical energy to make one million tonnes of primary aluminum per year.  That\u2019s about the same as powering one million Canadian households (5% of that to make recycled aluminum). Canada\u2019s production of aluminum per capita is 9 times that of China, 7 times that of the USA, and 1.5 times that of Russia. Canada uses clean and renewable hydro power in the smelting process, China uses coal, and Russia uses gas. The USA uses a mix of hydro and gas.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a trip to the East Coast in 2003, we drove along the north shore of the St. Lawrence, east of Montreal, to Shawinigan (the home of Jean Chretien) and then went north to Chicoutimi, where we saw the enormous aluminum smelters powered by clean hydro from the outflow of Lac-St-Jean into the upper Saguenay River. Then we drove back along the north shore of the Saguenay to the picturesque village of Tadoussac, one of two original settlements in \u201cNew France.\u201d We took a boat cruise up the lower part of the Saguenay, where the ore boats from South America bring bauxite ore up the wide and deep Saguenay fjord to Chicoutimi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That combination of geography is unmatched in the US and indeed in the world. It gives Canada an unmatched advantage in the production of primary aluminum. The US doesn\u2019t want to be dependent on China and Russia for its aluminum supply. If they treat Canada and other countries fairly and respectfully, like most previous US administrations have done, they could continue to have access to the world\u2019s best facilities for producing aluminum and other critical materials. But that\u2019s not the Trump way.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if the US could replicate Canada\u2019s aluminum production facilities at Chicoutimi, which it can not, it would take 7 to 10 years to engineer and build. Trump\u2019s pipedream of using tariffs to force aluminum, steel, auto manufacturing, etc., to leave their carefully established current locations and scramble to the US, where production costs are the highest in the world, is just that, a pipedream.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of Trump\u2019s ideas are very short-sighted, designed to feed his boundless ego and enrich his supporters. According to a recent report from McKinsey & Company, global demand for aluminum, driven by the clean energy transition that Trump hates because it limits his profits, is expected to outstrip supply by 4 million tonnes by 2035. That means if Boeing or Ford or General Dynamics needs more aluminum and Canada\u2019s supply line has been damaged by Trump\u2019s tariffs, the choices left are to get it from China, Russia, or the UAE. How does that help with North American security? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That example is just for one industry. But Trump and his greedy ilk in the Republican Party want it all. They want all the business and all the highest per capita incomes. And they couldn’t care less what that does to anyone else, or to the world. He has no real friends. He is putting impossible tariffs on already very weak countries like Laos, Myanmar, and Syria. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US courts are challenging the legality of Trump\u2019s unilaterally declared tariffs. But even if they are legal, US companies might gain some market share in the US but lose market share everywhere else they sell.  And US companies will lose overall efficiency by having to produce every variation of their product in every export market. Currently, they produce each variation where it makes sense and share the rest.  E.g., GM makes pickup trucks in Canada because they have a large market share, and they import all other low market share models. That is good for overall tooling, sourcing, and manufacturing efficiency. That’s why the auto trade agreement was struck in 1965.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is in panic mode to get this done before he loses much of his power in the 2026 midterms, if not before. And he has the unabashed nerve of a canal horse. But there is no need for Canada to be in panic mode to comply with his bold-faced blackmail. We could have some short-term pain, but we must stay on course with our own and global interests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

  Hugh Holland<\/p>\n\n\n

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Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hugh Mackenzie is on break this week. Trump is in panic mode ahead of the US mid-term elections in November 2026. That is why the \u201cstable genius,\u201d as he once […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1904,"featured_media":197400,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-197399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nListen Up! 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