{"id":192872,"date":"2025-06-29T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-29T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/?p=192872"},"modified":"2025-06-29T15:42:03","modified_gmt":"2025-06-29T19:42:03","slug":"transitioning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/transitioning\/","title":{"rendered":"Listen Up! Energy threats and opportunities: A guest post by Hugh Holland | Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break this week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best political, scientific, and corporate leaders foresee threats and problems and take steps to protect their constituents and customers from them. <\/p>\n\n\n

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For decades, it seemed that the emerging deadly combination of a rapidly growing global population, a shrinking base of finite resources, and the resulting impact on the Earth\u2019s climate was being ignored.\u00a0 However, a consensus of 80 years of detailed climate data from three leading US and two European Climate Centers shows that there is no longer any doubt that global warming is accelerating rapidly.\u00a0 There are still deniers, but growing evidence suggests that many more leaders are coming around and joining the fight for a better future.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the professional climate scientists are correct, we have about 25 years to 2050 to make the transition to clean energy.  The consequences of being too slow will be different for each country but will be felt by all countries.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the professional oil and gas market forecasters are correct, we have about 50 years to 2075 to avoid serious energy shortages. Conventional oil and gas reserves are finite resources. They are not like wheat.\u00a0 We can\u2019t just plant seeds and grow more of them. When it\u2019s gone, it\u2019s gone.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As late as 2023, fossil fuels still produced 80% of the world\u2019s primary energy.\u00a0That highlights the scale of the energy challenge. According to the International Energy Agency, transportation uses almost 1\/3rd<\/sup> of the world\u2019s final energy, and cars and light trucks make up roughly 60% of that. That too shows us the scale of the challenge of switching from gasoline to light-duty electric vehicles, and from diesel to hydrogen-electric fuel cell-powered heavy trucks and mobile equipment.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hyundai XCIENT \u2013 the world\u2019s fist commercialized fuel cell heavy duty truck.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But <\/strong>18 of the world\u2019s top 20 car companies (by sales) have joined the transition to clean energy and are now producing electric vehicles (EVs) in some form\u2014whether fully electric (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), or both. Toyota is ramping up its EV production alongside hybrid models. Volkswagen has a strong EV presence in VW, Audi, and Porsche. General Motors is investing heavily in EVs from Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac, and Buick, which will go all-electric by 2030.\u00a0 Ford, Hyundai-Kia, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Honda, and Nissan are all actively producing EVs. BYD and Tesla are the leaders in global EV sales. The EV shift is no longer a trend \u2014 it\u2019s the future of mobility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toyota, GM, Caterpillar, Komatsu, Hyundai, Nikola, and Ballard Power all have hydrogen-electric fuel cell powered heavy trucks and mobile equipment under development. Toyota, Hyundai, and Nikola have products on the market. CP has Ballard fuel cell locomotives operating in Alberta. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Exxon (the world\u2019s second-largest energy company) is forecasting oil demand will continue at 100 million barrels per day through 2050, the US EIA, OPEC, and BP are currently showing that proven global reserves of oil and gas will be depleted in about 50 years (by 2075). That says the world has 25 years to go from using 100 million barrels per day to zero.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The six biggest oil users (USA, China, EU, Japan, India, and Russia) each have less than 25 years in reserve, so from 2050 to 2075, they will be buying from the six countries that have the biggest reserves (Venezuela 304 b bl, Saudi Arabia 297, Canada 172, Iran 155, Iraq 145, and Russia 107).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change remediation is taking an increasing amount of money. That puts a practical limit on the amount of investment money that can be allocated to oil and gas exploration in increasingly remote, deeper, and more expensive areas. More reserves could indeed still be found, but replacing the entire current reserves of oil and gas within the next 50 years is extremely unlikely. New discoveries may still happen, but the rate has slowed dramatically, and the easiest-to-access reserves, including US shale oil, have already been tapped.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without international help, there will likely be some residual demand for oil and gas beyond 2075 from poor and small island nations, but at what point does it simply become uneconomical to supply oil and gas, or for those countries to buy it?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if we think of the \u201cBig Oil and Gas companies\u201d transforming themselves to become \u201cBig Energy companies\u201d gradually replacing fossil fuels with alternative energy sources, then yes, a timely transition to clean energy is possible.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nine million people are employed in the global auto industry, and 8.3 million are employed in the global oil and gas industry. It\u2019s much faster and less disruptive to employment and financial markets to have the existing big companies transform their enormous resources and expertise, rather than have them die out and be replaced by new organizations starting from scratch.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, many of the world\u2019s top oil and gas companies are actively engaged in the transition.\u00a0BP has committed to becoming a net-zero company by 2050 and is investing heavily in renewables, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and hydrogen. It now refers to itself as an \u201cintegrated energy company.\u201d\u00a0 Shell<\/strong> has been expanding into wind, solar, and hydrogen and has installed over 30,000 high-speed EV charging stations to date. TotalEnergies (France) is shifting toward solar, wind, and battery storage. Equinor, Norway\u2019s state-backed oil company, rebranded from Statoil to Equinor.\u00a0It\u2019s investing in offshore wind and carbon capture technologies. PetroChina is investing heavily in wind, solar, geothermal, battery storage, and EV charging networks. It aims for non-fossil energy to make up a full one-third of its capacity by 2035. U.S.-based ExxonMobil and Chevron are investing in carbon capture, hydrogen, and low-carbon fuels.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it will require a massive, coordinated global effort to fully replace fossil fuels by 2050 or even by 2075, by using 3 times the energy efficiency of EVs and heat pumps, and 3 times the generating capacity of renewables and SMRs (Small Modular Reactors built in factories and shipped to sites).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The momentum behind the transition is inevitable and undeniable.\u00a0But there is no time to waste.\u00a0 The future health of the global climate and the global economy both hinge on the public\u2019s acceptance of reality and how fast we can implement the transition to clean energy.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hugh Holland<\/p>\n\n\n\n

25 Largest Car Companies in the World (Ranked By Sales \ud83d\ude97\ud83d\udcb0)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top 10: Energy Companies | Energy Magazine<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break this week. The best political, scientific, and corporate leaders foresee threats and problems and take steps to protect their constituents and customers from them. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1904,"featured_media":192873,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-192872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nListen Up! 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