{"id":188895,"date":"2025-04-06T17:27:10","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T21:27:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/?p=188895"},"modified":"2025-04-06T18:45:35","modified_gmt":"2025-04-06T22:45:35","slug":"global-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/global-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Listen Up! A Global shift \u2013 How should Canada respond?: A guest post by Dave Wilkin | Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break. This is a guest commentary by Dave Wilkin on Listen Up!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 14px;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45658\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday, President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war went global, as large &#8220;reciprocal&#8221; tariffs hit more than 180 countries. With a stroke of the pen, he not only upended the global trading system but undermined long-standing US partnerships and allies, damaging trust and US leadership around the world. Global markets have reacted negatively, signalling their strong disapproval.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada was mostly spared in this latest round of tariffs, but tariffs from a few weeks ago remain in place, so we are far from out of the woods. It may be a small sign that there is more room for trade negotiations for the US\u2019s bordering neighbours and largest trading partners, but no one really knows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This sets the stage for the most consequential election in generations. The&nbsp; top issues for Canadians remain cost of living, the economy, healthcare, and housing, but how to deal with Trump and US relations is now at the top of the list.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are some relevant background on the challenges we now face:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/economics.td.com\/ca-productivity-bad-to-worse#:~:text=In%20the%20decade%20prior%20to%20the%20pandemic%2C%20labour%20productivity%20in,0.4%25%20in%20the%20United%20States.\">Canadian economy is not in good shape<\/a>. GDP growth per capita, productivity, and business investment have all lagged behind most wealthy countries, and our total <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/News\/Seminars\/Conferences\/2023\/09\/13\/back-to-the-trend-global-debt-evolution\">gross debt<\/a> has risen substantially over the past decade.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Three-quarters of Canadian exports remain US bound. Oil and gas represents over 20% of our exports, almost all of it is US bound.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Canada-US pipeline network is highly integrated, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianenergycentre.ca\/big-vulnerability-how-ontario-and-quebec-became-reliant-on-u-s-oil-and-gas\/\">almost all of Ontario\u2019s and Quebec\u2019s oil flows through US-based pipelines<\/a>. Almost half of Ontario and Quebec\u2019s natural gas is US sourced.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US defence spending is about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-04\/2404_fs_milex_2023.pdf\">30 times ours, and most of our military purchases are US sourced<\/a>.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking forward now, it\u2019s all about where to focus and getting meaningful results. This leads to some key, interrelated questions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How do we rapidly strengthen our economy?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How do we improve, diversify &amp; expand trade?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How much and where should limited government program spending be targeted?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are some thoughts on these questions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond the clear need to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers, trade diversification and expansion is crucial. It will require significant infrastructure investment, especially for oil &amp; gas, meaning new pipelines, including to our east coast.\u00a0 For other key sectors, especially mining, forestry, automotive, and agriculture, it means expanded rail and port infrastructure. The total capital spending needed could exceed $100 billion. On top of that, existing infrastructure is aging, and it\u2019s an impediment to economic growth, making it a top priority to address. Cost estimates are in the <a href=\"https:\/\/canada.constructconnect.com\/joc\/news\/infrastructure\/2024\/07\/canadas-infrastructure-deficit-where-it-comes-from-how-to-fix-it\">$150 billion to $1 trillion<\/a> range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such significant capital spending needs will require more private sector participation, but for that to happen, excessive and restrictive federal regulations built up over the past decade will need to be reduced or eliminated, creating a more attractive environment crucial for private sector capital investment. This is especially true for our natural resource sectors.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On natural resources, the Liberal government\u2019s 2050 net zero emission imperative and related policies, which PM Carney <a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/opinion\/opinion-is-mark-carney-canada-first-or-net-zero-first\">wants<\/a> to accelerate, must end. Claims that the costs, in the<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/opinion\/getting-canada-net-zero-cost-several-fortunes\"> $100 &#8211; 150 billion<\/a> annual range, will be more than offset by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=p26NQAFahuY\">economic growth it creates<\/a> is unrealistic and most untimely, as it will drive energy costs and inflation higher, undermine industrial competitiveness, and compromise our energy security. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianenergycentre.ca\/pappano-the-great-exodus-from-the-net-zero-banking-alliance-has-arrived\/\">Canadian &amp; US financial sectors<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tilakdoshi\/2024\/05\/09\/as-europe-deindustrializes-can-economic-suicide-be-avoided\/\">green leading Europe<\/a>, are realizing this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Government spending needs are expanding too. Top among them are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support for workers and businesses impacted by Trump\u2019s tariffs. Many billions likely needed, but amounts are currently unknown.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reaching the minimum 2% of GDP NATO defence spending target would likely require an additional <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/amp\/s\/globalnews.ca\/news\/11050336\/canada-defence-spending-nato-target-money-explained\/amp\/\">$40 billion annually<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cma.ca\/how-health-care-funded-canada\">Health Care<\/a>, Social Services &amp; Housing. An expanding, aging population continues to stress services and supply, and rising costs continue to outpace economic growth. Maybe another $50 billion annually is needed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Other pressures on government budgets now include an uncertain economic growth outlook and the need for tax cuts to help struggling Canadians and to stimulate business investment.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With so many large needs and provincial deficits nearing limits, demand for the federal government to do more is understandable and reasonable. However, everything can\u2019t be done, which means it\u2019s even more important for policy proposals to include sufficient details and expected costs so Canadians can make a well-informed decision on who to vote for. It should also be noted that with the current federal deficit at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/research\/sovereigns\/canadas-deteriorating-federal-finances-face-additional-risks-19-12-2024\">around $50 billion<\/a>, the opportunity to balance the budget in the near term looks unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada has such great potential, but to get through the immediate crisis and to put us on a better path going forward requires a competent government and strong leadership. A government that can be counted on to build on our advantages and strengths, and to deliver on the things that matter most to Canadians.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"258\" height=\"279\" src=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2022\/09\/Dave-Wilkin.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-119507\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Dave Wilkin is a professional Engineer, with a master\u2019s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy, and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.<\/p>\n\n\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\">Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler!<\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Sign up <a href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/dont-miss-out-on-doppler\/\"><u>here<\/u><\/a> to receive our email digest with links to our most recent stories.<br \/>\nLocal news in your inbox so you don&#8217;t miss anything!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a style=\"background: #5cb85c url('https:\/\/d1iczxrky3cnb2.cloudfront.net\/red_logo.png') no-repeat 37px; color: #fff; text-decoration: none; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; padding: 15px 38px; padding-left: 75px; -webkit-border-radius: 2px; -moz-border-radius: 2px; border-radius: 2px; box-shadow: 0 1px 0 0 #1f5a89; text-shadow: 0 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);\" href=\"https:\/\/donorbox.org\/support-huntsville-doppler\">Click here to support local news<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45657\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break. This is a guest commentary by Dave Wilkin on Listen Up! On Wednesday, President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war went global, as large &#8220;reciprocal&#8221; tariffs [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1904,"featured_media":188899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-188895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Listen Up! 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