{"id":188842,"date":"2025-04-04T16:26:35","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T20:26:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/?p=188842"},"modified":"2025-04-05T10:38:39","modified_gmt":"2025-04-05T14:38:39","slug":"liberation-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/liberation-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Liberation Day: Hugh Holland \u00a0| Commentary\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n\n\n\n

By Hugh Holland<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was political theatre at its best. President Trump strode into the Rose Garden on April 2nd<\/sup> and delivered his Liberation Day address with his egotistical jaw thrust out in a Mussolini-like pose. \u201cAmerica is in a mess because no other president has ever done what I am doing to stop the rip-offs\u201d (except Herbert Hoover with his Smoot-Hawley Tariffs in 1930 that blew the Great Depression into a worldwide event). \u201cIt’s going to be great\u201d (except that it will be a long time before any other country trusts or respects the USA again). Union leaders in MAGA hats (flown in at taxpayers’ expense), cabinet members, and Republican congressmen clapped in awe at every word. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA (with GDP per capita of $81,695 (at PPP) in 2023) is tired of being ripped off by Vietnam (GDP of $15,195 per capita), India (at $10,176), and Bangladesh (at $9,066), so Trump is applying large retaliatory tariffs on those and a long list of other countries.\u00a0 Let\u2019s look at some simple logic as it pertains to Canada\u2019s production of key items with a 25% Trump tariff.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Automotive<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024<\/strong><\/td>Cars built (m)<\/strong><\/td>Cars Sold (m)<\/strong><\/td>Average Ind wage<\/strong><\/td>+ Health Insur <\/strong>Per family<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Canada<\/td>1.90 <\/td>1.92<\/td>$39,200 US<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
USA<\/td>10.60<\/td>15.9<\/td>$68,000 US<\/td>$23,968<\/td><\/tr>
Mexico<\/td>3.99<\/td>1.35<\/td>$16,000 US<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Asia & Europe<\/td>2.68<\/td><\/td>$46,000 to $70,000 US<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Total North Amer<\/strong><\/td>19.17<\/strong><\/td>19.17<\/strong><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Over 100 vehicle models are sold in North America. Rather than producing all 100 models in all three countries, each country is more efficient when manufacturing specific models and trading the others to minimize duplication of expensive tools and equipment, as well as parts supply chains. Together, Canada and Mexico make 37% of the 15.9 m light-duty cars and trucks sold in the US, so in simple terms, the 25% tariff adds 37% x 25% x $48,000 average US price = $4,440 to each vehicle sold in the USA. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The average gross profit on new light-duty vehicles sold in the USA is 3.9% x $48,000 = $1,872.  Car companies will have to decide between three options: 1. Absorb the tariff and incur a loss of $2,568 per car. 2. Raise the price by $4,440 and lose some sales, or 3. spend $68,000 – $39,200 + $23,968 = $52,768 extra per year <\/strong>for every job moved to the USA + the cost and 2 to 3 years for adding plant and equipment capacity and supply-chain organization. Which option will they choose in Trump\u2019s brilliant plan?  They will choose option 2 until they can be assured of a stable vs unstable business environment, but the reduction in sales will reflect in lower shareholder\u2019s equity<\/strong> and higher trickle-down inflation<\/strong>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steel<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Twenty-three per cent of US steel imports come from Canada due to the abundance of iron ore in eastern Quebec that is economically shipped to steel mills and customers via the St Lawrence Seaway. 60% of the US nickel supply used to make stainless steel comes from Canada.  If the US doesn\u2019t want our steel, we can likely pivot to European and Asian markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aluminum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forty per cent of U.S. aluminum imports come from Canada.  Production of aluminum requires economical access to receive bauxite ore from South America and massive amounts of electricity for smelting. The giant smelter on the Saguenay River in eastern Quebec is unique and unmatched with those assets. Apparently, Airbus in France will be happy to take all the aluminum Canada can supply.<\/p>\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive living in Huntsville, Ontario.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/broadstreet-zone>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Hugh Holland It was political theatre at its best. 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