{"id":182335,"date":"2024-12-02T11:14:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-02T16:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/?p=182335"},"modified":"2024-12-05T22:05:13","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T03:05:13","slug":"trump-2-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/trump-2-0\/","title":{"rendered":"Listen Up! Ready for Trump 2.0?: A guest post by Dave Wilkin | Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break this week from Listen Up! This is a guest commentary by Dave Wilkin.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

<\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump\u2019s win was stunning, as he captured all seven swing states, 50% of the popular vote, and broadened his voter base across many demographics. The pollsters missed it, as did Democrat party leaders and strategists, who are trying to determine what went wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s really not that hard to see why Trump won. He focused on the issues most Americans are concerned about. Topping the list, economic worries, stemming mostly from the high cost of living. Just as James Carville, Bill Clinton\u2019s strategist said in 1992, \u201cit\u2019s the economy, stupid<\/a>\u201d.  Also high on the list was illegal immigration, deadly drugs and costly foreign wars. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, VP Kamala Harris opted for the continuation of President Biden\u2019s policies, offering little new. Democrats discounted polling that showed most American voters thought the country was headed in the wrong direction<\/a> and wanted change. Instead, they focused on macroeconomic accomplishments and abortion and attacked Trump personally, including claiming that democracy was on the ballot. Despite markets reaching record highs, many in the working\/middle class abandoned the Democrats. This continued a global trend of struggling incumbent governments getting tossed out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, how might a Trump 2.0 presidency be different? He will have fewer restraints\u2014more people ideologically closer to him, no concerns over re-election, and experience working the levers of power to achieve his objectives. A Republican-controlled House, Senate, and Supreme Court further strengthens his hand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His administration will face a more challenging, shifting, multipolar world order\u2014a more aggressive and powerful China, an accelerating India, and other fast-rising Asian countries. Slowing economies in Europe, stressed by the Ukraine war and an increasingly aggressive Russia (China-backed), are additional evidence of that shift. The war in the Middle East has also raised global tensions and concerns over energy security. Trump\u2019s win and his stronger America First agenda need to be seen in the context of this shifted global picture. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what does it mean for Canada?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much is at stake, with 75% of our exports US bound, and Trump promising big tariff increases, recently bumped up to 25% if we fail to address border security concerns. It\u2019s likely a bargaining ploy and being lumped in with Mexico on border security certainly isn\u2019t fair, but we must take his threat very seriously. On this side of the border, we now face a potential flood of migrants fleeing before Trump\u2019s deportation actions begin, which would make dealing with our immigration and border <\/a>challenges much harder. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trudeau government\u2019s NATO defense spending target miss is another problem.  The US currently comprises about two thirds of all NATO defence spending, so Trump has leverage, and he\u2019s using it. Europe is upping its game, but Canada remains near the bottom of the list (as a share of GDP).  To meet our NATO commitment, Canada would need to double defence spending<\/a>, to $82 billion annually by 2032, and even that may be insufficient.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On climate change and energy policy, the Trudeau government will be out of step with the new US administration.  Trump will abandon much of Biden\u2019s IRA and lower regulations to promote US oil and gas. This could be a problem, as US-bound Canadian oil and gas comprises almost 20% of all Canadian exports. Additionally, funding to developing countries to help them address their climate-change\/energy transition costs could be at risk too, as the US is by far the largest contributor. The recent tripling of the overall target to $300 billion, announced at the COP29 convention<\/a> further raises the stakes. Pressure is likely to only increase on the other developed countries, including Canada, to not only accelerate their contributions, but potentially to help fill any future US funding gap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Trump\u2019s election presents opportunities. The US will need Canadian energy and natural resources for the foreseeable future, and our integrated manufacturing systems work well together. So Canada is well positioned to be an even closer partner with the US to face the challenges ahead.\u00a0 But this will require a clear plan with important adjustments, especially significant new investments in both border security and defence, changes in energy\/climate policy and a tone shift. Trudeau\u2019s government has been negative and disparaging of Trump, including trying to scare Canadians into not voting conservative, painting them as \u2018MAGA\u2019 politicians<\/a>. Not surprising, Trump\u2019s view of our PM is poor, having called him\u00a0 \u201ctwo-faced\u201d, \u201cweak\u201d and a \u201cfar-left lunatic\u201d<\/a>. He also likely sees him as a lame duck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can the Liberals pivot and gain traction with Trump, or will it require a new government? US Democrats learned the hard way that when voters want change, you had better listen to them. So far, that message hasn\u2019t broken through for the Liberals<\/a>. That may change, but the clock is ticking down.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Dave Wilkin<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Dave Wilkin is a professional Engineer, with a master\u2019s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy, and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.<\/p>\n\n\n

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<\/broadstreet-zone>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break this week from Listen Up! This is a guest commentary by Dave Wilkin. Donald Trump\u2019s win was stunning, as he captured all seven swing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1904,"featured_media":182392,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-182335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nListen Up! 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