{"id":179656,"date":"2024-09-26T21:15:25","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T01:15:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/rwddev\/?p=179656"},"modified":"2024-09-27T12:02:12","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T16:02:12","slug":"globar-energy-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/globar-energy-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Global energy update &#8211; A policy shift coming\u00a0 | Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>By Dave Wilkin<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 14px;\"><strong><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45658\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone><\/strong><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2024 edition of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.energyinst.org\/statistical-review\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">World Energy\u2019s Statistical Review<\/span><\/a> was recently released. Below I highlight some key statistics from it, then share my takeaways and how they may affect Canadian energy policy direction.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global primary energy consumption continues to rise, growing 2% last year, while the renewables (mostly wind and solar, excluding hydro) grew 12%, now comprising 8% of the global energy mix, unchanged from 2022. Nuclear and Hydro had minimal growth. Fossil fuels are still comprised of over 80% of the global energy mix, and their related emissions have reached a new high, rising over 8% over the last decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diving deeper, we see stark differences. In non-OECD (mostly developing) countries, primary energy consumption grew 22% over the decade, driven largely by fossil fuels growth, which make up 84% of their energy mix. Their emissions surpassed 70% of the global total. Notably, these countries collectively hold 90% of natural gas reserves and 85% of oil reserves, enough to last around 70 years, at current production levels. Renewables growth was a robust 18% last year (half in China), yet their energy mix share remained mostly unchanged at just under 7%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, Europe\u2019s primary energy consumption fell 10% and emissions declined 19% over the past decade. Renewables expanded 7% in 2023, bringing them up to a 15% energy mix share. European emissions now comprise just 9% of the global total. Yet fossil fuels still make up almost 70% of their energy mix and they remain very heavily dependent on imports, which still comprise over half of their primary energy. Last year Canada supplied only 1.5% of their imported oil, and no LNG, while the US supplied about 18% of their oil and 45% of their LNG. The majority of their energy imports still come from OPEC+ countries. Continuing cutbacks on energy imports from Russia have pushed them to further reduce consumption and pursue alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past decade, US primary energy consumption rose 2%, oil increased 3% and natural gas was up a stunning 25%. Despite these increases, emissions declined 9%, largely from cleaner natural gas replacing coal.&nbsp; In contrast, Canada\u2019s primary energy consumption and emissions fell around 3%, oil declined slightly, while natural gas grew almost 15%. Last year, renewables expanded about 4% in the US and 6% in Canada, pushing their energy mix share to just 9% and 5% respectively. Fossil fuels share remained at about 65% in Canada and 81% in the US. Notable, of our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capp.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Canadian-Exports-of-Crude-Oil-and-Natural-Gas.pdf\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$152 billion in 2023 oil and gas exports<\/span><\/a> (20% of all Canadian exports), almost all was US bound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are key takeaways from this energy picture:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The global energy transition is not on track to reach the 2050 net-zero emissions goal. Renewables are growing, but not at a sufficient rate to even offset continuing energy demand growth. This was echoed in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/industries\/energy-and-materials\/our-insights\/global-energy-perspective\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2024 McKinsey Global Energy Perspective<\/span><\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite some progress in developed countries, non-OECD countries are the primary driver of fossil fuel growth. They have the reserves to continue on that path, pushing global emissions higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In Europe, where <a href=\"https:\/\/carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org\/\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">most high carbon pricing resides<\/span><\/a> &amp; electricity and natural gas prices are triple ours, progress to net-zero emissions remains insufficient. After decades of significant policy efforts &amp; spending, almost 70% of their energy still comes from fossil fuels, higher than ours. Energy insecurity from their continuing high dependence on imported fuels from undemocratic countries remains. Adding to this challenge, overly aggressive energy transition policies <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tilakdoshi\/2024\/05\/09\/as-europe-deindustrializes-can-economic-suicide-be-avoided\/\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">are driving growing deindustrialization<\/span><\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the US, both oil and natural gas consumption continues to grow.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So how might things unfold on the Canadian political scene?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Trudeau government, no changes, despite Mark Carney\u2019s arrival as a party advisor. They will continue with their carbon tax and other aggressive energy regulations &amp; reduction targets, arguing the urgency to fight climate change remains top priority.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conservatives will remind voters that under Trudeau, and despite his carbon tax, heavy regulations, and over <a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/opinion\/trudeau-160-billion-carbon-tax-pitch\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$160 billion in committed climate-related spending<\/span>, <\/a>&nbsp;energy-related emissions declined just 3.4%.&nbsp; They will point out that Canada contributes just 1.5% (and declining) to global emissions and that the US doesn\u2019t\/won\u2019t have a carbon tax, placing Canadian businesses\/exports increasingly at a competitive disadvantage. They may also highlight the big European challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After 9 years, this Liberal government is tired, and most voters are done with Trudeau. Under a conservative government, the carbon tax is history, aggressive climate targets, heavy industry regulations and green energy subsidies will likely be scaled back.&nbsp; Actions to significantly expand Canadian energy exports, including oil &amp; especially LNG, looks likely.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Improving Canadian productivity &amp; competitiveness while expanding Canadian energy and natural resource exports takes centerstage over fighting climate change (domestically). A big shift in energy policy is coming.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"258\" height=\"279\" src=\"https:\/\/media-doppleronline-ca.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com\/2022\/09\/Dave-Wilkin.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-119507\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dave Wilkin<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Dave Wilkin is a Professional Engineer, with a master\u2019s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy, and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.<\/p>\n\n\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\">Don\u2019t miss out on Doppler!<\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Sign up <a href=\"https:\/\/doppleronline.ca\/huntsville\/dont-miss-out-on-doppler\/\"><u>here<\/u><\/a> to receive our email digest with links to our most recent stories.<br \/>\nLocal news in your inbox so you don&#8217;t miss anything!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a style=\"background: #5cb85c url('https:\/\/d1iczxrky3cnb2.cloudfront.net\/red_logo.png') no-repeat 37px; color: #fff; text-decoration: none; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; padding: 15px 38px; padding-left: 75px; -webkit-border-radius: 2px; -moz-border-radius: 2px; border-radius: 2px; box-shadow: 0 1px 0 0 #1f5a89; text-shadow: 0 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);\" href=\"https:\/\/donorbox.org\/support-huntsville-doppler\">Click here to support local news<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><broadstreet-zone zone-id=\"45657\" keywords=\"\" soft-keywords=\"true\" zone-alias=\"\"><\/broadstreet-zone>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Dave Wilkin The 2024 edition of the World Energy\u2019s Statistical Review was recently released. Below I highlight some key statistics from it, then share my takeaways and how they [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":179657,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-179656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Global energy update - A policy shift coming\u00a0 | Commentary - Huntsville Doppler<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 2024 edition of the World Energy\u2019s Statistical Review was recently released. 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