Anyone with their eyes open is now aware of the attack on Israel on Saturday night by Iran. It was in response to an air strike allegedly carried out by Israel (they have not yet claimed responsibility) on the Iranian Consulate annex building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria. The attack took place on April 1, and sixteen people were killed, including top commanders and officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
At first blush, it must be asked why the Israelis would undertake such an attack. They must have known that Iran would retaliate and that they had been waiting for years to find an excuse to attack Israel directly. And indeed, Iran announced almost immediately that there would be a proportional response.
But there is something deeper going on here because the response when it came, was far from proportional. Iran sent over 300 drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles aimed at Israel on Saturday night. Many more rockets were fired on Israel at the same time from Lebanon by Hezbollah, a puppet military arm loyal to Iran.
Forces from the United States and Great Britain played a key role in helping intercept most of the missiles and drones from Iran before they reached Israel, but nevertheless, Iran was able to show the world their military capability, which is beyond the expectations of many in the Intelligence community.
The grave question now is how Israel will respond. United States President Joe Biden, while stating that America’s support of Israel is “iron clad” and while they played a key role in defending Israel on Saturday, also made it very clear to the Prime Minister of Israel that America will play no part in a retaliation by Israel on Iran.
Why is that? It is because such involvement by the United States could well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, leading us all into World War Three. What happens between Israel and Iran in the near future will be a crucial factor in what happens in the rest of the world.
Bob Rae, Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations, heading into a meeting of the Security Council this morning to debate the Iranian attack on Israel, said this on social media: “In all parts of life, but especially in war, it is crucial to understand the difference between the temptation of impulse and the wisdom of understanding consequences. Second, remember how rare it is to be angry and smart at the same time. Anger drives out both empathy and the ability to listen.”
The hard facts are that the world is a tinderbox in many ways right now, and any match thrown to it could well result in global conflict. If ever there was a time to recognize the difference between the temptation of impulse and the wisdom of understanding consequences, this is it.
Another reality is that over the last few years, there has been an attack on world order. The United States, a key component in relation to the balance of power, has been weakened on the global stage by its internal struggles. Consequently, this, at least in part, has prompted powers like Russia and China and, indeed, North Korea and Iran to push their own agendas at the expense of the Western powers, ultimately threatening their security and their sovereignty.
Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are now firm allies. They all have agendas that are not compatible with democratic principles. They have the resources, and they believe they now have the opportunity to push forward with their view of what the world should look like.
On the other hand, the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Canada, other NATO members, Japan, and Israel are allies. However, the United States is the core of Western defense, and its ability and willingness to continue to fulfill that role are now in question.
In any country, you can only have one Chief Magistrate at a time. In the United States right now, there are two presidents: one who was clearly defeated in the last presidential election but doesn’t believe it, and the other who was actually elected.
The former, Donald Trump, calls the shots in the House of Representatives and is aggressively hostile to the current occupant of the White House. That makes it very difficult to govern, especially in times of potential global conflict when a unified sense of purpose and reaction is imperative.
I don’t know if we are on the brink of a Third World War, but I am pretty sure of two things. First, there are many elements of conflict in the world today that are similar to those that triggered the last World War. Second, a global conflict, especially one that may lead to war, cannot be resolved favorably if there is dissension, confusion, disloyalty, and a lack of determination amongst the allies.
Israel is an important ally of both the United States and Canada. Conversely, Israel is despised by Iran, Hezbollah, much of Syria, Lebanon, and Hamas. Their generational goal is to completely wipe out every Jewish person.
And if there was any belief that the preponderance of pro-Palestinian demonstrations around the Western world is about the tragic circumstances in the Gaza Strip rather than pure antisemitism, just look at how these have morphed into rabid celebrations over the attack on Israel by Iran.
The United States and Canada must stand by Israel and defend them against tremendous odds. Israel is clearly between a rock and a hard place, with Iran posturing on one flank and Hamas and Hezbollah attacking on the other. It is nothing less than a David and Goliath situation.
Israel, too, however, must recognize that they are a potential trigger for those who want conflict on a much larger scale. Any action by Israel to confront Iran that could develop into a third World War should be very carefully contemplated, not in anger, but definitely in terms of consequences.
Today, United States President Joe Biden has asked the G-7 nations to meet immediately to discuss the situation in the Middle East and work on a combined diplomatic solution. It is a very tall order, but I hope they can do it.
If we are not on the brink, we are close to it, and we desperately need to move back.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Hugh Mackenzie: I think we edged right up to the ‘brink’ when we found out we had built a bomb. The first bomb used in anger wiped out thousands of Asian lives. The second added to the holocaust with thousands more. Nagasaki, that second city, was victim to “Fat Man’, maybe about a 21 kiloton blast. Todays bombs are 10 times and up more powerful.
And there is a lot of them, likely in excess of the admitted estimate of 13,000 such weapons. Quite a climb down from the 65,000 bombs that the USSR and USA once advertised. Most of todays bombs make ‘Little Boy’ the first uranium explosive and ‘Fat Man’ the plutonium type, seem miniscule and skinny. Plus there are all those little ‘tactical nukes’ that can still make “the hopes and fears of all the years get blown to hell tonight”.
In the Middle East the thought of atomic weapons is particularly scary. Israel is known to have atomic weapons but does not acknowledge that. Saddam Hussein perished while threatening to build weapons of mass destruction. Today, Iran is threatening to build a bomb. Delivering it may be problematic, though it might go in the back of a Toyota. Pakistan is the only Muslim nation with the A-bomb. So far there are no other such quivering hands there, hovering near a ‘Fire’ button.
But with a mentality that proposes that dead believers go straight to heaven while the non-believer goes to hell?? Really does challenge your faith in ‘humanity’ ever having the ability or desire to save itself.
David Harrison: I can respect your comment but must ask; would Biblical ‘prophecy’ be similar to something preordained. If people have nothing to look forward to but Armageddon; if we are going down no matter what; why would our being given the freedom of choice be important or even worth mentioning? It seems it is understood that we will fail anyway.
We know that this earth will end as our sun will; if all goes according to science. Unless some quivering finger pushes that ‘Fire’ button and a thousand little ‘suns’ fall to earth.
Politicians today inspire little hope. I suppose I’ll just have to keep the faith.
Once again it always best to check the facts. CAF pay is the largest part of our military expenditures. Canada’s military spending as a % of GDP dropped under the Conservatives from 1.38% in 2009 to 1.0% in 2014 as the Harper Government imposed a 6 year pay freeze. The Liberal’s Defence Minister Anita Annan raised CAF pay 3 times to 1.4% of GDP in 2020 to attempt to improve CAF morale and recruiting capability after the Conservative’s 6-year pay freeze. Both parties are guilty of playing politics with each other’s proposed military hardware investments which would have raised military expenditures to the 2% level by now.
As a % of GDP, Canada spends more on foreign aid than the USA, which is on the preventive side of conflict. There are no angels in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that has been going on for so long that nobody can remember who threw the first stone. When desperate people like the Palestinians have their water cut off and are kicked out of their homes and feel they have no other options left, they resort to violence. And of course violence begets violence.
When one side gets a lot of support from other countries, the other side naturally tries to get countervailing support. And nobody wins, either the victims or the helpers on either side. Its time for sensible cooler heads to prevail.
Our ally Israel has asked for Canada to declare the Iranian Islamic revolutionary guard corps to be a terrorist organization, yet the Trudeau government has refused to do so, why is that?
Trudeau’s brother Alexandre produced a documentary criticizing Israel and the money for this documentary came from the Iranian state owned broadcaster “Press TV”
Why does the Trudeau family indirectly and otherwise support the evil Iranian regime in these ways?
I have a pretty good guess as to why but am wondering if the regular liberal partisans on here would like to explain?
Indeed Hugh, the world has become less safe, even scary at times. It didn’t happen suddenly though, and events in Ukraine and most recently the Middle-East are just the latest concerning flashpoints. The rise of China, aligned with Russia and other authoritarian states, and now a surging India, signals a changed, multi-polar world is emerging. In it, perceived and real weakness and lack of preparedness heightens the risks for conflict and war.
It’s not just in Canada where national security has slipped, albeit we may have been the worst. It unfolded in Europe too, where they also depend too heavily on the US military while failing to adequately prepare for/respond to an increasingly assertive and aggressive Russia. After the bullets and missiles fly, it’s late in the game.
Whether it’s a depleted miltary, undisciplined foreign policy or foreign government election meddling, Canadian preparedness and world standing is diminished. It needs to change, but unfortunately the priority and urgency looks wanting. Talk is cheap, only actions and meaningful results speak.
As long as we have Politicians, Aristocracy, Religion, Ignorance and Human beings,
We will always be on the brink!
Maybe tomorrow will be different??
Geopolitics is vastly more complicated than domestic politics (and even domestic politics is rarely as it is presented in the mainstream media–“dumbed down” as it is)_ In addition, it is a well known fact of history that nations plagued with internal strife often employ belligerent actions abroad as a distraction from domestic discontent.
Each nation has its own agenda and priorities and one nation almost never has the same priorities as another “ally”. An example of that is the uneasy alliance that Russia has with China. It is important to note that Russia has thrown off communism and China is still nominally communist (although, I would argue that it is engaging in a primitive form of capitalism, while retaining its collectivist disregard for individual human rights and freedoms).
Despite Western sanctions, Russia continues to prosper in a world hungry for its natural resources. China is struggling with dire financial ruin (a fact that is rarely acknowledged in the mainstream media). For its part, Russia casts a wary eye on China’s desire to extract Russia’s vast natural resources east of the Urals. Neither country cares very much, one way or the other, whether Israel survives or not, except that Russia views Israel as a commercial rival in the natural gas marketplace and as a meddler in what Russia considers to be its own domestic affairs (Ukraine). That is why Russia under Putin has expelled a number of billionaire oligarchs who hold dual Russian-Israeli citizenship.
As for Iran, there is some amount of posturing against Israel for the sake of focusing Iranians on their enmity toward the whole idea of a “European Jewish state” mucking up Iran’s desire to dominate the Middle East. Iran’s traditional rival for dominance of the Middle East is Saudi Arabia, which seemingly has, for the most part, settled into a watchful “wait and see”. The Saudis well-understand that Iran is behind the Houthi rebellion.
And then there are the mega-wealthy globalists who control the U.N. agenda and fund various NGOs for their influence over the domestic affairs of every nation. Wherever globalist money goes, corruption abounds. The U.N. itself is extremely corrupt and has been for a long time. As just one scandalous example, look up its “Oil for Food” program. The globalists seemingly have a goal (and there are dissenting opinions even among them) of supplanting national governments in favour of a “One World” dictatorship, somewhat modeled after a combination of the Roman Empire and European feudalism. They appear to be the most dangerous actor in global politics to date.
As I watch the news, I keep one eye on the headlines and the other on my Bible. This current tension is not the end – a precursor maybe.
Undoubtedly, the clock is ticking. Though it was on pause for a long time, with the in-gathering of the Jewish people to Palestine starting in the 1800’s, and the prophetic rebirth of the nation of Israel on May 6, 1942, God has started the clock running again.
Way back in Genesis, chapter 16, God spoke to Hagar: “You are now pregnant and you will give birth to a son.You shall name him Ishmael, for the Lord has heard of your misery. He will be a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone and everyone’s hand against him,and he will live in hostility toward all his brothers.”
Ishmael is recognized as the father of Islam, and his brother, Issac, the father of the Jewish nation, God’s ‘chosen people’.
And so, this prophecy has been playing itself out for thousands of years and continues to this day. For those who follow biblical prophecy, there are no surprises.
Hugh, you wrote a very balanced article summing up a very dangerous situation, unfortunately not fully appreciated by those who hold the purse strings in Ottawa. To reach 1.75% of our NATO financial commitment by 2030 is simply not good enough, we have to do a great deal better than that if for no other reason we may need those strengthen resources a lot sooner than 2030.
Prevention and cure are the two solutions to any problem The far left always puts too much on prevention and the far right puts too much on cure, in this case military intervention. Moderates strive for a balance of prevention and cure. The hard liners in Israel clearly bear some responsibility for the failure to reach a two state solution which is the only thing that will bring lasting peace to that region. Please may cooler heads prevail over raw politics.
Thanks for a balanced and truthful response to this heart breaking situation.
Excellent article Hugh. Well articulated.
And here we are….on the precipice, stuck with yet another federal government that refuses to meet Canada’s financial obligation to fund our military to the full NATO standard.
How blind we are as a nation that we continue to accept protection from our neighbor’s rather than lead in military preparation.
How sad would it be if like Ukraine, we were to be invaded by a bad actor such as Russia?
I fear we would fall much faster, and be 100% reliant on the dysfunctional support of our US neighbors.
We need only look to the Baltic allies to see that to the best of their ability, they are strengthening their defence’s in anticipation of conflict with our Russian foe.
Grow a pair Justin and get with the program!!